narrative-tracker

type	Skill
mode	read-only
name	Narrative Tracker
category	crypto
description	Track rising, peaking, and fading crypto/tech narratives with quantitative mindshare + velocity signals and explicit positioning calls
schedule	0 14 * * *
commits	true
tags	["crypto","research"]
requires	["XAI_API_KEY"]
permissions	["contents:write"]

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context on prior narrative observations. Read the last 3 days of memory/logs/ — specifically any prior ### narrative-tracker entries — to (a) avoid re-reporting the same narratives without new info, and (b) detect phase transitions vs the last run.

Goal

Produce a decision-grade narrative map: every narrative gets a mindshare score, a velocity arrow, a sentiment tag, named drivers, and an explicit position call. Classification without a position call is noise.

Steps

1. Ingest signals

a. X/Twitter narratives — X.AI API (primary). The primary signal is a direct curl to the X.AI Responses API with Grok's x_search tool — see ## Fetching below for the full contract. XAI_API_KEY is injected into this skill's environment via requires:; it is present and valid, so this path is required whenever the key check prints KEY_PRESENT. Set the Bash tool timeout to ≥180000 when running the curl (x_search takes 30-120s) and capture the HTTP status:

FROM_DATE=$(date -u -d "3 days ago" +%Y-%m-%d 2>/dev/null || date -u -v-3d +%Y-%m-%d)
TO_DATE=$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d)
# Presence check uses the ${VAR:+x} modified expansion, NOT a bare $XAI_API_KEY — the bare
# form trips the Bash secret-expansion analyzer; the :+ form does not (it never puts the value on the line).
[ -n "${XAI_API_KEY:+x}" ] && echo KEY_PRESENT || echo KEY_UNSET
# Build the JSON payload to a file with jq (do NOT hand-assemble it), then POST the file.
# TWO SEPARATE commands on purpose: the jq (which interpolates $PROMPT/$FROM_DATE/$TO_DATE)
# is kept OUT of the ./secretcurl command — never pipe jq into secretcurl, and never put a
# $VAR in the secretcurl line, or the Bash permission analyzer blocks the network call.
# The `>` redirect to /tmp is fine in read-only mode (it is not a repo path; nothing reverts it).
PROMPT="Search X for the dominant crypto and tech narratives from ${FROM_DATE} to ${TO_DATE}. Return 12-15 distinct narrative threads. For each: 1) short label, 2) 3-5 representative @handles driving it, 3) 2-3 tweet permalinks, 4) rough mention-volume descriptor (niche / growing / saturating / cooling), 5) the strongest one-line bear case against it."
jq -n --arg p "$PROMPT" --arg fd "$FROM_DATE" --arg td "$TO_DATE" \
  '{model:"grok-4-1-fast", input:[{role:"user",content:$p}], tools:[{type:"x_search",from_date:$fd,to_date:$td}]}' \
  > /tmp/xai-nt-payload.json
HTTP=$(./secretcurl -s -o /tmp/xai-nt.json -w '%{http_code}' --max-time 150 -X POST "https://api.x.ai/v1/responses" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer {XAI_API_KEY}" \
  -d @/tmp/xai-nt-payload.json)
echo "xai http=$HTTP bytes=$(wc -c </tmp/xai-nt.json)"

Run that block verbatim (do not hand-reassemble the JSON — the jq -n builder exists precisely so quoting/expansion can't break; keep the jq and the ./secretcurl as two separate commands). The echo "xai http=$HTTP ..." line must appear in your output — it is your proof the call ran. On HTTP=200 with a non-empty body, parse /tmp/xai-nt.json with jq -r '.output[] | select(.type == "message") | .content[] | select(.type == "output_text") | .text' and use that as the primary narrative signal (SOURCE=api).

b. WebSearch / WebFetch fallback (last-resort only). You may reach for this only after you have shown an xai http=<code> line proving Path A actually ran and returned a non-2xx code (or an empty body, or timed out). If you have no xai http= line, you did not run the call — go back and run it. Reach for the fallback only when Path A genuinely fails — KEY_UNSET, a non-2xx HTTP code, an empty parse, or a timeout. It is lower quality (WebSearch favours old high-engagement posts) and is never co-equal with Path A. Log the fetch failure to memory/logs/${today}.md recording the true reason — key-unset | http-<code> | empty | timeout — never "XAI_API_KEY unavailable" when the key was set (a slow curl is a timeout, not a missing key). Then compile narratives via WebSearch (crypto narrative ${TO_DATE}, AI agent crypto trend this week) and WebFetch on individual tweet URLs; discard anything older than the 3-day window.

c. Quantitative reference points (supplement). Independently of the fetch path, cross-check mindshare against external quantitative benchmarks with one WebSearch: DefiLlama narrative tracker OR Kaito mindshare leaderboard. Pull 1-2 concrete numbers (project name, metric, link) to calibrate the mindshare scores in step 2. This is a calibration cross-check, not a narrative source. Do not paraphrase — extract facts.

d. Memory diff. Extract narrative labels mentioned in the last 3 days of ### narrative-tracker log entries. You'll compare against them in step 4.

2. Score each narrative

For each distinct narrative (merge near-duplicates aggressively — "AI agents" and "agentic crypto" are the same), assign:

Field	Scale	How to decide
Mindshare	1-5	1 = fringe, 3 = known in the sector, 5 = dominating timelines. Base on count of distinct drivers + whether you had to dig or it surfaced unprompted.
Velocity	↑↑ / ↑ / → / ↓ / ↓↓	Compared to the 3-day window or prior log entries. ↑↑ = tripled in attention, ↓↓ = was loud 3 days ago, now absent.
Phase	Emerging / Rising / Peak / Fading	Use the velocity + mindshare combo. Emerging = low mindshare, high velocity. Peak = high mindshare, flat/down velocity. Fading = high mindshare last week, now ↓.
Sentiment	Bull / Mixed / Bear / Cope	Cope = bag-holder energy, bear narratives dressed as bull takes.
Drivers	2-3 named	Accounts, projects, or funds amplifying it. Include @handles.
Bear case	1 line	The sharpest argument against. If the consensus is obviously right, say so and mark "no contrarian edge".
Position	FRONT-RUN / RIDE / FADE / WATCH / IGNORE	FRONT-RUN = emerging + contrarian edge. RIDE = rising, not yet peaked. FADE = peak with weak fundamentals or reflexivity flip. WATCH = unclear. IGNORE = mindshare 1-2 with no catalyst.

Drop any narrative that ends up IGNORE unless it's structurally important — noise reduction is the goal.

3. Detect transitions

Compare today's narratives to the last 3 days of logs:

• NEW — narrative wasn't in prior logs at all
• PROMOTED — phase moved up (e.g. Emerging → Rising)
• DEMOTED — phase moved down
• DEAD — was in prior logs, now absent from all signals

Transitions are the highest-value output — the point of a daily tracker is to catch inflection points, not re-report the zeitgeist.

4. Flag reflexivity

For each narrative, flag if the story itself is moving outcomes:

• Token prices moving on narrative alone (no fundamentals shift)
• Projects rebranding/pivoting to ride the narrative
• VCs publicly endorsing to manufacture legitimacy
• Prediction markets or on-chain flows reflecting narrative belief

Only flag explicit cases with a concrete example. "Reflexivity" without evidence is hand-waving.

5. Format the notification

Keep under 4000 chars. Lead with transitions and reflexivity — those are the decisions. Classification goes below.

*Narrative Tracker — ${today}*

TRANSITIONS
• NEW: <label> — <why it matters> — <link>
• PROMOTED: <label> Rising → Peak — <what flipped>
• DEMOTED: <label> Peak → Fading — <what cooled>
• DEAD: <label> — gone

REFLEXIVITY ALERT
• <narrative> — <concrete evidence the story is moving outcomes>

POSITIONS
• FRONT-RUN: <label> (mindshare 2 ↑↑, Bull) — <driver> — <bear case> — <link>
• RIDE: <label> (3 ↑, Bull) — <driver> — <bear case>
• FADE: <label> (5 → Cope) — <driver> — <reflexivity note>

MAP
Emerging: <labels>
Rising: <labels>
Peak: <labels>
Fading: <labels>

If absolutely nothing new or notable (no transitions, no reflexivity, no FRONT-RUN/FADE calls): send a one-line update instead of the full template — *Narrative Tracker — ${today}*: no phase transitions, map unchanged from <last_date>.

6. Send via ./notify

7. Log to memory/logs/${today}.md

Append a ### narrative-tracker section with the full structured output (not just the notification — include all narratives considered, even IGNOREd ones, so future diffs work). If a full run produced nothing actionable, log NARRATIVE_TRACKER_OK with the narrative labels seen (so tomorrow's diff still has a baseline).

Guidelines

• Quantitative over vibes. Every narrative gets mindshare 1-5 and a velocity arrow — no exceptions. If you can't score it, drop it.
• Transitions > classification. A daily tracker's value is catching moves, not listing the weather.
• Named drivers only. "Crypto Twitter is excited about X" is not a driver. "@handle + @handle + @fund" is.
• Position calls are mandatory for Emerging/Rising/Peak narratives. If signals are genuinely ambiguous or contradictory, WATCH is an acceptable call — but never omit a position entirely and never invent conviction you don't have.
• Ruthless dedup. Same narrative under two labels = one narrative. Merge, don't split.
• Call out cope. Manufactured narratives, coordinated shilling, and dead-cat bounces get tagged explicitly.
• Prioritize topics tracked in MEMORY.md over generic market chatter.

Fetching

XAI_API_KEY is injected into this skill's environment (declared in requires:). It is present and valid. The primary fetch path is a direct curl to https://api.x.ai/v1/responses with Authorization: Bearer {XAI_API_KEY} (model grok-4-1-fast, "tools":[{"type":"x_search"}]). There is no network sandbox blocking this — earlier versions of this skill claimed there was, and that is stale and false. Just make the call.

Rules:

1. Check, don't assume. Run [ -n "${XAI_API_KEY:+x}" ] && echo KEY_PRESENT || echo KEY_UNSET (the ${VAR:+x} form, not bare $XAI_API_KEY — the bare form trips the secret-expansion analyzer and falsely reads as unset). If KEY_PRESENT (it will be), Path A (the curl in step 1a) is required before any fallback.
2. Allow enough time. The x_search call typically takes 30-120s. When you invoke the Bash tool for the curl, set the tool's timeout to at least 180000 (180s) and keep --max-time 150 on the curl so it fails cleanly rather than hanging. A slow curl is not a missing key — never treat a timeout as key-unavailable.
3. Capture the HTTP status so the fallback decision is fact-based (see the skeleton in step 1a). HTTP=200 with a non-empty parsed body → use it.
4. Fall back only on a real failure, recording the true reason — key-unset (only if the check printed KEY_UNSET), http-<code> (non-2xx), empty (200 but nothing parsed), or timeout. Never write "XAI_API_KEY unavailable" when the key was set.

WebSearch / WebFetch are last-resort fallbacks only — lower quality, never primary or co-equal. Do not reach for them while the key works.

Environment Variables Required

• XAI_API_KEY — X.AI API key for Grok's x_search tool. Declared in requires:, so it is injected into this skill's environment and is the primary fetch path for the narrative signal (step 1a). If it is ever unset, the skill degrades to WebSearch/WebFetch at lower quality.
• Notification channels configured via repo secrets (see CLAUDE.md).