picks-tracker

type	Skill
name	Picks Tracker
category	crypto
description	Retrospective on past token and prediction market picks - what hit, what flopped, what the score is
schedule	0 9 * * 0
tags	["crypto","review","meta"]
requires	["COINGECKO_API_KEY?"]

Today is ${today}. Your task is to audit the last 30 days of token picks and score them against current prices.

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context.

Network note

curl works — there is no network sandbox. For every curl call, if it fails or returns empty/error, use WebFetch for the same URL as a fallback for a flaky public GET.

Steps

1. Extract token picks from logs

Scan the last 30 days of memory/logs/ for token picks. For each log file, grep for lines matching **Token:**. Extract:

• Symbol (e.g., XMR, HYPE, TAO)
• Date (from the filename, e.g., 2026-04-19)
• Pick price (the number after $ on the same line, ignoring ~ approximations)

Also extract prediction market picks from lines matching **Market:**:

• The question text (in quotes)
• The position taken (YES or NO)
• The price/odds at pick time

Expected log format (written by token-pick and monitor-polymarket):

- **Token:** XMR — $350.52 (+1.17% 24h, +2.55% 7d)
- **Market:** "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30?" — NO $0.615 (YES 38.5%)

Focus on the last 30 days of logs. If a token was picked multiple times, record each instance separately.

If zero picks are found in the window, log PICKS_TRACKER_SKIP: no picks in last 30 days — enable token-pick / monitor-polymarket and stop (no notification).

2. Fetch current token prices

For each unique token symbol, fetch the current price from CoinGecko.

First, try the search endpoint to get the coin ID:

curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/search?query=SYMBOL" \
  ${COINGECKO_API_KEY:+-H "x-cg-demo-api-key: $COINGECKO_API_KEY"}

Then fetch the price:

curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=COIN_ID&vs_currencies=usd&include_24hr_change=true" \
  ${COINGECKO_API_KEY:+-H "x-cg-demo-api-key: $COINGECKO_API_KEY"}

Fallback: If curl fails, use WebFetch for the same URL (drop the API key header).

Common ID mappings (use directly, skip search step):

• HYPE → hyperliquid
• XMR → monero
• TAO → bittensor
• ENJ → enjincoin
• DASH → dash
• ORDI → ordinals
• MORPHO → morpho
• RENDER → render-token
• JUP → jupiter-exchange-solana
• KAS → kaspa
• ENA → ethena
• ALGO → algorand
• APT → aptos
• FET → fetch-ai
• ZEC → zcash
• ETHFI → ether-fi

For tokens not in the list, use the search endpoint. If a symbol is ambiguous or the token isn't found, mark as N/A (not found).

3. Calculate performance

For each pick:

performance % = ((current_price - pick_price) / pick_price) * 100

Round to 1 decimal place. Use a ~ prefix if the pick price was approximate.

If the same token was picked multiple times, calculate performance from each individual pick date.

Classify each pick:

• 🟢 Win — +10% or better
• 🟡 Hold — between -10% and +10%
• 🔴 Loss — -10% or worse

4. Check prediction market pick resolution

For each prediction market pick, search the Polymarket API to check if the market resolved:

# Search by question text
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=true&limit=10&q=KEYWORDS_FROM_QUESTION"

If WebFetch is needed: https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=true&limit=10&q=KEYWORDS_FROM_QUESTION

For each market pick:

• If resolved: was the position correct? Mark ✅ (correct) or ❌ (wrong) or ⏳ (still open)
• Note the resolution price/outcome if available

Markets with no Polymarket equivalent (internal or experimental markets) — mark as ⏳ or skip.

5. Score summary

Tally the token picks:

• Total picks in window
• Wins / Holds / Losses count
• Average return across all picks (equally weighted)
• Best pick (highest % gain)
• Worst pick (biggest % loss)
• Hit rate: (wins / total_picks) * 100

Keep it honest. No cherry-picking dates.

6. Format and send notification

Send via ./notify (inline multi-line literal — do NOT pipe or use $(cat)):

*picks scorecard — [START_DATE] → [TODAY]*

*token picks ([N] total)*
[SYMBOL] [DATE] — picked $[PICK] → now $[CURRENT] ([PERF]%) [EMOJI]
...sorted best to worst...

*score: [WINS]W [HOLDS]H [LOSSES]L | avg [AVG]% | hit rate [HIT_RATE]%*
*best: [SYMBOL] +[BEST]% | worst: [SYMBOL] [WORST]%*

*market picks*
[QUESTION_SNIPPET] — [POSITION] [STATUS_EMOJI]
...

no financial advice. just tracking the record.

read it: https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon/blob/main/output/articles/picks-scorecard-${today}.md

Keep the message under 3000 chars. If too long, truncate to the most recent 10 picks.

7. Save scorecard

Write a brief scorecard to output/articles/picks-scorecard-${today}.md:

# Picks Scorecard — [DATE]

## Token Performance
| Symbol | Picked | Pick Price | Current | Change | Result |
|--------|--------|-----------|---------|--------|--------|
...

## Summary
- Window: last 30 days
- Total picks: N
- Wins / Holds / Losses: X / Y / Z
- Average return: X%
- Hit rate: X%

## Market Picks
| Question | Position | Status |
...

8. Log to memory

Append to memory/logs/${today}.md:

## Picks Tracker
- **Window:** last 30 days (N picks)
- **Score:** [WINS]W [HOLDS]H [LOSSES]L | avg [AVG]% | hit rate [HIT_RATE]%
- **Best:** [SYMBOL] +[BEST]%
- **Worst:** [SYMBOL] [WORST]%
- **Notification sent:** yes
- PICKS_TRACKER_OK

Environment Variables

• COINGECKO_API_KEY — optional, increases rate limits. Skill works without it via free tier + WebFetch fallback.