bid-strategy-planner

name	bid-strategy-planner
slug	aaron-bid-strategy-planner
displayName	Bid Strategy Planner · 出价策略
summary	出价策略/tCPA目标/tROAS/学习期
description	Use when the user asks to "pick a bid strategy", "set a tCPA/tROAS target", or "plan the learning-phase entry"; produces a bid-strategy choice (tCPA / tROAS / max-conversions / manual CPC), the starting target math, a portfolio grouping map, and a learning-phase entry plan. Not for splitting the budget across campaigns — use budget-optimizer; not for in-flight pacing/scale moves — use budget-pacing-monitor; not for scoring the account — use ad-account-auditor. 出价策略/tCPA目标/tROAS/学习期
version	19.0.0
license	Apache-2.0
compatibility	Claude Code and compatible agent-skill hosts
homepage	https://github.com/aaron-he-zhu/aaron-marketing-skills
when_to_use	Use when choosing a bid strategy for a new or restructured paid campaign, setting an initial tCPA or tROAS target from CPA/ROAS history, deciding between automated (tCPA/tROAS/max-conversions) and manual CPC bidding, grouping campaigns into a bid portfolio, or planning how a campaign enters and exits the learning phase without churn. Not in-flight pacing — that is budget-pacing-monitor.
argument-hint	<goal: DR|prospecting> [conversion history: CPA/ROAS + volume] [campaign set]
metadata	{"author":"aaron-he-zhu","version":"19.0.0","discipline":"ad","phase":"orchestrate","geo-relevance":"low","hermes":{"tags":["marketing","ad","orchestrate"],"category":"ad"},"openclaw":{"emoji":"🎯","homepage":"https://github.com/aaron-he-zhu/aaron-marketing-skills"}}

Bid Strategy Planner

Chooses the bid strategy for a paid campaign — tCPA, tROAS, max-conversions, or manual CPC — sets the starting target from the account's own conversion history, groups campaigns into a bid portfolio, and lays out a learning-phase entry plan. This is the plan skill that sets the ROAS S (Spend-efficiency) bidding lever; it does not allocate the budget (budget-optimizer), does not adjust pacing in-flight (budget-pacing-monitor), and does not score the account or run the vetoes (ad-account-auditor).

Quick Start

Pick a bid strategy for [campaign]: DR goal, past 30 days $42 CPA at 90 conversions/mo

Set a starting tROAS target for [campaign] — history is 3.8x ROAS, goal is 4.5x

Group these 4 search campaigns into a bid portfolio and plan the learning-phase entry

Output: a named bid strategy with rationale, the starting target and how it was derived (labeled Measured / User-provided / Estimated), a portfolio grouping map, and a learning-phase entry/exit plan.

Skill Contract

• Reads: ROAS profile (direct-response|prospecting|incremental-profit), conversion history (CPA / ROAS + conversion volume from the user's own GA4/ecommerce export), current bid strategy if restructuring, campaign set + budgets, and any minimum-daily-conversion or account-structure constraints. Connector data via ~~web analytics / ~~ecommerce (own-data manual export) when available.
• Writes: a bid-strategy recommendation (strategy + starting target + portfolio map + learning-phase entry plan) and a reusable handoff summary. Save path: memory/ad/bid-strategy-planner/YYYY-MM-DD-<campaign>.md.
• Promotes: the chosen strategy, the locked starting target, and the portfolio grouping — propose durable decisions as pending-decision items in memory/open-loops.md; do not write memory/decisions.md directly.
• Done when:
  1. One bid strategy is named with a rationale tied to the goal and the conversion-volume threshold.
  2. The starting target is stated with its derivation, and every input metric is labeled Measured / User-provided / Estimated.
  3. A learning-phase entry plan names the conversions-to-exit estimate and the do-not-touch window.
• Primary next skill: ad-account-auditor — scores the campaign against ROAS (the lever + premature-scaling guardrail) before launch.