apxm-claim-evidence

name	apxm-claim-evidence
group	Evaluation
description	Use after a claim-bearing run completes. Writes the docs/evaluation/ write-up, promotes a claim card under docs/claims/ if paper-bound, and links the preregistration + artifact paths.
user-invocable	true

APXM Claim Evidence

Load _shared/apxm-evaluation-rules.md and _shared/apxm-preregistration-rules.md before broad work.

When this skill applies

A claim-bearing run has completed. Artifacts exist under .apxm/evaluation/<scenario>/runs/<UTC>/. A preregistration is already committed in docs/preregistrations/. Now you need to:

1. Write the run-up under docs/evaluation/<scenario>/<UTC>.md.
2. (If paper-bound) promote a claim card under docs/claims/<id>.md.

Write-up template

# <Plan> — <Scenario> — <UTC>Z

## Preregistration
docs/preregistrations/<prereg-file>.md
Commit SHA: <sha>

## Setup
- APXM commit: <sha>
- vLLM commit: <external/vllm sha>
- Service: <name> (Slurm job <id>)
- Hardware: <N x model>

## Method
Brief summary; defer to preregistration for protocol details.

## Results
- Primary metric: <value>
- Effect size: <value, CI>
- Secondary metrics: <table>

## Artifacts
`.apxm/evaluation/<scenario>/runs/<UTC>/`
- `manifest.json`
- `<raw outputs>`

## Interpretation
What the numbers do and do not support.

## Known confounds / limitations
From the preregistration; updated if anything new surfaced.

## Follow-ups
- <list>

Claim card template (docs/claims/<id>.md)

# Claim <id>: <one-sentence claim>

## Status
<draft | verified | retracted>

## Backing run
docs/evaluation/<scenario>/<UTC>.md

## Preregistration
docs/preregistrations/<prereg-file>.md (commit <sha>)

## Numbers
- <metric>: <value> (<CI>)

## Scope of the claim
Where it applies; where it does not.

## Replication
Exact commands to reproduce from the artifact directory.

Steps

1. Write the run-up.
2. (If paper-bound) promote a claim card. Cross-link prereg ↔ write-up ↔ claim card via filenames and commit SHAs.
3. Commit: eval(<scenario>): <UTC> write-up or claim(<id>): <descriptor>.
4. Confirm apxm-finish's preregistration interlock is satisfied (timestamp, SHA in write-up).

Anti-patterns

• Editing a committed claim card silently. Add a "Retracted" section or write a superseding card and update the status.
• Writing the run-up without citing the preregistration commit SHA.
• Burying confounds — surface them, even if they weaken the headline number.