estimate

name	estimate
description	Estimation workflow for a feature or task. Breaks the task into sub-tasks, estimates each, sums with contingency buffer.

/estimate — Task Estimation

Delegate to: producer (with lead-programmer for tech estimates)

Steps

1. Gather Context

Ask: "What task / feature do you want to estimate?"

2. Break Down Into Sub-Tasks

For a typical feature, list:

• Design: GDD writing (0.5-2 days)
• Implementation: Code writing (1-10 days depending on scope)
• Art assets: If needed (varies wildly)
• Integration: Hooking into existing systems (0.5-2 days)
• Testing: QA plan + execution (0.5-2 days)
• Polish: Rough edges, edge cases (0.5-1 day)
• Review: Code review, design review (0.5 day)

3. Estimate Each Sub-Task

Use T-shirt sizing for unclear items, hours for clear items:

• XS: < 2 hours (trivial)
• S: 2-8 hours (simple)
• M: 1-3 days (moderate)
• L: 3-7 days (complex)
• XL: 1-2 weeks (very complex, consider breaking down)
• XXL: 2+ weeks (must break down further before proceeding)

4. Apply Contingency Buffer

• For tasks with uncertainty: +30-50%
• For tasks in new territory: +50-100%
• For tasks with external dependencies: +variable (explicit risk note)
• For bug fixes: +20% (things hide)

5. Sum and Sanity Check

• Compare to available capacity in current sprint
• Flag if > 40% of sprint capacity (single task dominating the sprint)
• Flag if total breakdown doesn't match vague intuition

6. Present Estimate

# Estimate: [Feature Name]

## Sub-tasks
| Task | Size | Hours (est) | Risk |
|------|------|-------------|------|
| Design GDD | S | 6 | Low |
| Implement core | M | 16 | Medium |
| Implement UI | S | 8 | Low |
| Test + polish | S | 6 | Low |
| Review + iterate | S | 4 | Low |

**Subtotal**: 40 hours
**Contingency** (30%): 12 hours
**Total estimate**: ~52 hours (~6.5 working days)

## Risks
1. [Risk 1 — how it affects estimate]
2. [Risk 2]

## Assumptions
- [Assumption 1]
- [Assumption 2]

## Dependencies
- [Other tasks/systems this depends on]

Output

Present estimate to user. If too large, suggest splitting the feature. Save estimates to production/sprints/estimates/ when approved.