sh-estimate

name	sh-estimate
description	Development effort estimation with T-shirt sizing and risk adjustment

Effort Estimation

Estimate development effort for tasks, features, or projects. T-shirt sizing aligned with task management. Risk-adjusted.

When to Use

• Sizing a new feature or user story before committing
• Comparing effort across multiple options
• Planning sprints or task queues
• Assessing feasibility of a proposed change

Process

1. Scope Analysis

• Read relevant code to understand current state
• Identify what needs to change (files, modules, interfaces)
• List dependencies and integration points
• Note unknowns and assumptions

2. Decompose Work

Break into concrete sub-tasks:

1. [Sub-task] — [what changes]
2. [Sub-task] — [what changes]
3. Tests — [scope of test coverage needed]
4. Integration — [what needs wiring up]

3. Size Each Sub-task

Size	Meaning	Typical Scope
S	Contained change	Single file, clear pattern, < 1 hour
M	Multi-file change	2-5 files, some design needed, 1-4 hours
L	Cross-cutting change	5+ files, new patterns, 4-16 hours
XL	Requires breakdown	Too large for single task -- split first

4. Risk Adjustment

Identify risk factors that increase effort:

Risk Factor	Multiplier
Unfamiliar code area	1.5x
No existing tests	1.3x
External API dependency	1.5x
Database migration	1.3x
Cross-platform concerns	1.5x
Unclear requirements	2x

Apply the highest applicable multiplier (don't stack).

5. Present Estimate

## Estimate: [Feature/Task Name]

### Sub-tasks
| # | Task | Size | Risk | Adjusted |
|---|------|------|------|----------|
| 1 | [task] | M | Unfamiliar (1.5x) | M-L |
| 2 | [task] | S | None | S |
| 3 | Tests | M | No existing (1.3x) | M |

### Overall: [M-L]
### Confidence: [High/Medium/Low]
### Key Assumptions: [list]
### Unknowns: [list — each unknown reduces confidence]

Boundaries

Will: Analyze scope, decompose work, size tasks, identify risks, present estimate. Will not: Execute the work, create timelines, make commitments, or start implementation.

Next Step

After estimation, user decides priority and scheduling. Proceed with implementation when ready.