| name | synergy-stress-test |
| description | This skill should be used when the user asks to "stress-test these synergies," "is this deal's synergy case realistic," or has a deal or partnership's projected synergies that need cost/revenue separation, evidence checks, and a base-rate haircut.
|
| allowed-tools | Read, Grep, Glob |
| metadata | {"version":"0.3.0","owner":"corporate-strategy practice","review_cadence":"quarterly","work_shape":"hypothesis-driven-analysis","permission_tier":"advisory","output_class":"draft-for-review","sourcing_policy":"volatile-facts-must-be-sourced"} |
Synergy Stress Test
When to use
Stress-test deal synergies — separate cost vs revenue, grade evidence, apply haircuts, bar-test deal economics. Revenue synergies must not borrow credibility from cost lines.
What this skill does not do
- Does not blend cost and revenue lines.
- Does not invent deal economics — INPUT NEEDED for price/hurdle.
- Does not approve deal — recommendation on adjusted case.
- Does not skip mechanism check on revenue.
Preconditions
| Input | If missing |
|---|
| Synergy line items | Ask user or deck |
| Profile synergy haircut / track record | Use default base-rate table; cite source |
| Purchase price / hurdle for bar test | INPUT NEEDED — no fabricated IRR |
Provisional mode
Default haircuts tagged [unverified — industry pattern] unless profile has org track record.
Trust spine
- Analytical Rigor (mandatory): Per-line tier, haircut arithmetic, double-count scan.
- Per trust-conventions; GATE before board finals.
Base-rate anchor
| Type | Typical realization |
|---|
| Cost strong evidence | ~70–90% |
| Cost weak | ~40–60% |
| Revenue any tier | ~20–40% |
Use profile overrides when configured.
Workflow
- Separate every line: cost vs revenue.
- Grade evidence per line; state tier, haircut %, adjusted value. Connector-sourced figures (
~~bi analytics, ~~crm, ~~spreadsheet) require [sourced: <connector>, <asset>, <as-of>] on each load-bearing number; otherwise use INPUT NEEDED.
- Revenue mechanism check — missing mechanism → Weak.
- Double-counting scan.
- Recompute totals; bar test at adjusted number.
Output format
CONFIDENCE: [...]
COST SYNERGIES: [table]
REVENUE SYNERGIES: [table]
DOUBLE-COUNTING FLAGS: [...]
TOTALS: [...]
DEAL BAR TEST: [...]
RECOMMENDATION: [...]
Worked example
Input: $30M cost synergy (generic 10% G&A) + $50M revenue cross-sell (no mechanism).
Excerpt: Cost weak → ~50% haircut; revenue Weak → ~80% haircut; only works at optimistic number — material finding.
Quality checks before delivering
Propose profile update
When a stable convention surfaces during this run (thresholds, naming, tone, output format, or recurring corrections), propose a profile update: show the exact diff against ~/.claude/plugins/config/claude-for-strategy/corporate-strategy/CLAUDE.md (org-wide facts go to org-profile.md), ask for confirmation, and write only on yes. Only /corporate-strategy:practice-setup auto-applies a full profile write.
Outputs
Follows plugin CLAUDE.md § Outputs. Next: renegotiate, evaluate-strategic-option, or IC with cost-only case.
