business-evaluation

name	business-evaluation
version	1.0.0
description	[Content] Use when you need to evaluate business idea viability: Business Model Canvas, financial projections, risk matrix, go-to-market, execution plan.

[BLOCKING] Execute skill steps in declared order. NEVER skip, reorder, or merge steps without explicit user approval. [BLOCKING] Before each step or sub-skill call, update task tracking: set in_progress when step starts, set completed when step ends. [BLOCKING] Every completed/skipped step MUST include brief evidence or explicit skip reason. [BLOCKING] If Task tools are unavailable, create and maintain an equivalent step-by-step plan tracker with the same status transitions.

Quick Summary

Goal: Evaluate business idea viability to deliver an evidence-backed viability verdict — score + confidence + Pursue/Pivot/Pause/Pass recommendation — grounded in a complete 9-block BMC, 3-year financials with stated assumptions, 5+ risks with mitigation, and a phased execution + GTM plan, so the go/no-go decision rests on traced evidence, never optimism.

Summary:

• Runs after market-analysis: pull its market data in as evidence rather than re-deriving market sizing here — this skill judges viability, it does not research the market.
• Every artifact is evidence-gated — all 9 BMC blocks cite proof, every financial number carries an assumption + source, and each of the 5+ risks needs mitigation AND a residual-risk entry; an unbacked number or block fails the gate.
• The verdict is the load-bearing output: a 1-10 viability score, an explicit confidence tier (95/80/60/<60%) with its evidence basis, a Pursue/Pivot/Pause/Pass call, and the single key condition that must hold to succeed — bias toward skepticism, never optimism.
• Write the result to docs/knowledge/strategy/business/{slug}.md via the enforced .claude/templates/business-evaluation-template.md, then use AskUserQuestion to route next (domain-analysis recommended) — never auto-decide.

Workflow:

1. Capture idea — Problem, solution, target customer
2. Load market analysis — Market data from market-analysis
3. Business Model Canvas — All 9 blocks with evidence
4. Financial projections — 3-year revenue, costs, break-even
5. Risk assessment — 5+ risks with mitigation
6. Execution plan — 3 phases with milestones
7. Verdict — Viability score, confidence, recommendation

Key Rules:

• All 9 BMC blocks required, each with evidence
• Financial projections: explicit assumptions table
• Minimum 5 risks with mitigation AND residual risk
• Verdict must be evidence-backed with confidence declaration

Be skeptical. Apply critical thinking, sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof, confidence percentages (Idea should be more than 80%).

Business Evaluation

Step 1: Capture the Idea

From user input, extract:

• One-liner — Elevator pitch in 1 sentence
• Problem — What pain point does it solve?
• Solution — How does it solve it?
• Target customer — Who specifically benefits?

Step 2: Business Model Canvas

All 9 blocks required:

Block	Key Question	Evidence Required
Customer Segments	Who are we serving?	Market research
Value Propositions	What value do we deliver?	Customer pain points
Channels	How do we reach customers?	Channel analysis
Customer Relationships	How do we maintain relationships?	Retention strategy
Revenue Streams	How do we make money?	Pricing research
Key Resources	What do we need?	Resource assessment
Key Activities	What must we do?	Operational analysis
Key Partnerships	Who helps us?	Partner landscape
Cost Structure	What does it cost?	Cost analysis

Step 3: Financial Projections (3 Years)

Revenue Model

Year	Users/Customers	ARPU	Revenue	Growth

Cost Structure

Category	Y1	Y2	Y3

Break-Even

• Monthly burn: ${X}
• Break-even point: Month/Year
• Funding needed: ${X}

Assumptions Table

Every number must list its assumption and source.

Step 4: Risk Assessment

Minimum 5 risks:

Risk	Likelihood	Impact	Mitigation	Residual Risk

Categories to consider: market, execution, financial, competitive, regulatory, technical.

Step 5: Execution Plan

Phase	Timeline	Focus	Key Milestones
Validation	0-3 months	Customer discovery, MVP	N interviews, prototype
Build	3-6 months	Core product, early users	Beta launch, first revenue
Growth	6-12 months	Scale, optimize	Revenue target, team size

Step 6: Go-to-Market

• Launch strategy — How to enter the market
• Initial channels — Top 3 acquisition channels
• Pricing strategy — Model + rationale + competitive comparison

Step 7: Verdict

• Viability score: 1-10 with rationale
• Confidence: 95%/80%/60%/<60% with evidence basis
• Recommendation: Pursue | Pivot | Pause | Pass
• Key condition: What must be true for this to succeed?

Output

Write to docs/knowledge/strategy/business/{descriptive-slug}.md using enforced template from .claude/templates/business-evaluation-template.md.

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Next Steps

MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION — NO EXCEPTIONS after completing this skill, you MUST ATTENTION use AskUserQuestion to present these options. Do NOT skip because the task seems "simple" or "obvious" — the user decides:

• "/domain-analysis (Recommended)" — Analyze domain model from business evaluation
• "/plan" — If ready to plan implementation
• "Skip, continue manually" — user decides

[IMPORTANT] Use TaskCreate to break ALL work into small tasks BEFORE starting.

External Memory: For complex or lengthy work (research, analysis, scan, review), write intermediate findings and final results to a report file in plans/reports/ — prevents context loss and serves as deliverable.

Evidence Gate: MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION — every claim, finding, and recommendation requires file:line proof or traced evidence with confidence percentage (>80% to act, <80% must verify first).

AI Mistake Prevention — Failure modes to avoid on every task:

Re-read files after context changes. Context compaction, resume, or long-running work can make memory stale; verify current files before acting. Verify generated content against source evidence. AI hallucinates APIs, names, claims, and document facts. Check the relevant source before documenting or referencing. Check downstream references before deleting or renaming. Removing an artifact can stale docs, generated mirrors, configs, and callers; map references first. Trace the full impact chain after edits. Changing a definition can miss derived outputs and consumers. Follow the affected chain before declaring done. Verify ALL affected outputs, not just the first. One green check is not all green checks; validate every output surface the change can affect. Assume existing values are intentional — ask WHY before changing. Before changing a constant, limit, flag, wording, or pattern, read nearby context and history. Surface ambiguity before acting — don't pick silently. Multiple valid interpretations require an explicit question or stated assumption with risk. Keep shared guidance role-relevant. Universal guidance must help every receiving skill or agent; code-specific obligations belong only in code-specific protocols.

Critical Thinking Mindset — Apply critical thinking, sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof, confidence >80% to act. Anti-hallucination: Never present guess as fact — cite sources for every claim, admit uncertainty freely, self-check output for errors, cross-reference independently, stay skeptical of own confidence — certainty without evidence root of all hallucination.

MUST ATTENTION apply critical + sequential thinking — every claim needs appropriate traced evidence (file:line for repo/code claims; source URL or artifact section for research, product, content, and docs claims); confidence >80% to act, <60% DO NOT recommend. Anti-hallucination: never present guess as fact, admit uncertainty freely, cross-reference independently, stay skeptical of own confidence.

MUST ATTENTION apply AI mistake prevention — verify generated content against evidence, trace downstream references before deleting or renaming, verify all affected outputs, re-read files after context loss, and surface ambiguity before acting.

Prompt-Enhance Closing Anchors

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION follow declared step order for this skill; NEVER skip, reorder, or merge steps without explicit user approval IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION for every step/sub-skill call: set in_progress before execution, set completed after execution IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION every skipped step MUST include explicit reason; every completed step MUST include concise evidence IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION if Task tools unavailable, maintain an equivalent step-by-step plan tracker with synchronized statuses

Closing Reminders

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION Goal: Deliver an evidence-backed viability verdict — score + confidence + Pursue/Pivot/Pause/Pass recommendation — grounded in a complete 9-block BMC, 3-year financials with stated assumptions, 5+ risks with mitigation, and a phased execution + GTM plan, so the go/no-go decision rests on traced evidence, never optimism.

MUST ATTENTION — Protocols in force (concise digest of the SYNC/shared blocks this skill carries):

• AI Mistake Prevention: verify generated content against evidence, trace downstream references, verify all affected outputs, re-read after context loss, surface ambiguity.
• Critical Thinking: traced file:line proof, confidence >80% to act, NEVER guess as fact.

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION every claim, financial number, BMC block, and verdict carries evidence + confidence % (95/80/60/<60) — NEVER present a guess as fact — why: an unbacked number turns the go/no-go into optimism dressed as analysis. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION bias toward skepticism on the verdict — NEVER round optimism up; surface the single key condition that must hold and the residual risk if it fails — why: a falsely-rosy Pursue burns capital that an honest Pause would save. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION validate the next route with user via AskUserQuestion — NEVER auto-decide domain-analysis/plan — why: this skill judges viability, the human owns the go/no-go.

MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION break work into small todo tasks using TaskCreate BEFORE starting; keep one in_progress, mark completed with evidence; add a final review todo — why: untracked multi-step work loses state on compaction. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION consume market data FROM market-analysis as evidence — NEVER re-derive market sizing here — why: this skill judges viability, it does not research the market; duplicated sizing diverges from the source. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION all 9 BMC blocks present, each citing proof; every financial number lists its assumption + source in the assumptions table — why: a missing block or bare number is a silent gap the verdict then rests on. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION minimum 5 risks, each with mitigation AND a residual-risk entry across market/execution/financial/competitive/regulatory/technical — why: a risk without residual pretends mitigation is total. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION before writing any figure or claim, search market-analysis output + prior evaluations for 3+ comparable patterns and cite them — why: a number with no comparable anchor is a fabrication. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION write the result to docs/knowledge/strategy/business/{slug}.md via the enforced .claude/templates/business-evaluation-template.md — NEVER hand-roll the structure — why: the template is the contract downstream skills (domain-analysis/plan) read. MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION persist intermediate findings to plans/reports/ for lengthy evaluations — why: external memory survives context loss and serves as the deliverable.

Anti-Rationalization:

Evasion	Rebuttal
"Idea is obviously viable, skip rigor"	Optimism is not evidence. Run all 9 blocks + financials + risks anyway.
"Skip a BMC block — not relevant"	Every block cites proof or states why N/A explicitly; silent omission fails the gate.
"Estimate the number, source it later"	No assumption + source = no number. Fill the assumptions table before the verdict.
"5 risks is a lot, 2 covers it"	Minimum 5, each with residual risk. Thin risk lists hide the real downside.
"Recommendation is clear, skip the ask"	Still AskUserQuestion for the next route — the human owns go/no-go.

IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION evidence + confidence % on every number — NEVER present a guess as fact. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION bias toward skepticism — NEVER round optimism up. IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION AskUserQuestion for the next route — NEVER auto-decide.