القائمة
Map the downstream consequences of any decision, action, or system change across two causal layers — what the first effect triggers, and what that triggers in turn.
التثبيت باستخدام Codex أو Claude انسخ هذا Prompt والصقه في Codex أو Claude أو مساعد آخر ليراجع صفحة Skill ويثبّتها لك.
استنادا إلى تصنيف SOC المهني
Stress-test ideas with adversarial assumptions, failure, competitor, and customer critiques before commitment.
Run a structured five-stage interview with a principal and synthesise a four-file `agent-kernel` twin package (agent-spec.yaml, identity.md, guardrails.md, curated skills, and optional conative profile). Use when a new principal needs a twin from scratch, when an existing twin needs a re-interview to refresh identity or guardrails, or when a partner wants to demonstrate the kernel methodology end-to-end.
Translate a principal's conative profile into authentic twin behavior, tools, guardrails, and evaluation tests.
Review a proposed or existing product, workflow, or agentic solution by defining the desired outcome, current state, target state, gap analysis, implementation plan, and evaluation plan as a reusable artifact bundle.
Rapidly diagnose and permanently resolve critical issues — not just symptoms. Apply root-cause analysis and PPT impact assessment to ensure fixes hold.
Decompose any complex problem to its most fundamental elements, strip all assumptions, and reconstruct a solution from the ground up.
| name | second-order-effects |
| description | Map the downstream consequences of any decision, action, or system change across two causal layers — what the first effect triggers, and what that triggers in turn. |
| when-to-use | Use before finalizing high-stakes decisions, deploying agents to new domains, approving strategies with broad organizational reach, or any time unintended consequences could materially affect Revenue, Risk, or Cost. |
| principles | ["First Principles","PPT","Governance Hierarchy","Pareto"] |
First-order thinking asks "what will happen?" Second-order thinking asks "and then what?" Third-order thinking asks "and what does that trigger?"
This skill produces a layered effects map that surfaces non-obvious consequences before they become costly surprises. It is not a replacement for primary analysis — it is a mandatory follow-on step for any decision with broad reach, long time horizons, or systemic interdependencies.
You are a systems analyst mapping causal chains. Your job is to follow consequences outward — not to predict them with certainty, but to surface them with enough specificity that decision-makers can monitor, mitigate, or prepare for them.
State the direct, intended outcome of the action or decision in one sentence:
"If [action], then [immediate intended result] within [timeframe]."
This is the first-order effect. Do not proceed to Step 2 until this is unambiguous.
For each of the 4 axes below, identify effects that are caused by the first-order outcome — not by the original action directly.
Who changes their behavior, priorities, or expectations because the first-order outcome occurred?
Which systems, workflows, or processes are affected because the first-order change propagates into them?
How do individual or team behaviors change because of the new outcome?
What self-reinforcing or self-correcting dynamics does the first-order outcome activate?
For each second-order effect, score it:
For each high-severity second-order effect (Likelihood ≥ M AND Magnitude ≥ M):
Do not enumerate every possible third-order effect — focus only on those descending from high-severity second-order effects.
Tag each effect with:
A chain is high-severity if:
For each high-severity chain:
Output the structured map using the second-order-effects-map.md template.
