google-ads-search-analysis

name	google-ads-search-analysis
description	Use when analyzing Google Ads Search campaigns: Q1–Q5 query classification, CPC inflation diagnosis, rank/budget pressure, decision matrix, scaling prerequisites.

Google Ads Search — Analysis & Optimization

Metric definitions (CPA, ROAS, CVR, CPC, micros conversion, CPC trend formulas, Smart Bidding minimums, scaling cap) live in google_ads/tool-fundamentals and auto-load with this skill. Do NOT redefine them here. This skill is the workflow: classify queries → diagnose auction pressure → decide action.

Data Requirements

Pull these using google_ads_run_gaql:

1. Campaign auction metrics: metrics.search_impression_share, metrics.search_rank_lost_impression_share, metrics.search_budget_lost_impression_share, metrics.search_top_impression_percentage, metrics.search_absolute_top_impression_percentage, metrics.average_cpc, metrics.cost_micros, metrics.conversions, metrics.conversions_value, metrics.clicks, metrics.impressions. Filter: campaign.advertising_channel_type = 'SEARCH', LAST_30_DAYS, campaign.status = 'ENABLED'.
2. Search terms: search_term_view.search_term, impressions, clicks, cost, conversions, conversion_value. Sort by cost DESC, limit 200.
3. Keyword-level auction: keyword text, match type, keyword IS, IS Lost (Rank), avg CPC, conversions, cost from keyword_view. Sort by cost DESC, limit 200.
4. CPC trend: avg CPC for current 7 days vs prior 7 days (two queries with different DURING clauses; compute WoW delta locally per tool-fundamentals → CPC trend WoW).

Ask user for target CPA (or target ROAS for ecommerce). Default: use historical 30-day average.

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Step 1: Query Classification (Q1–Q5)

Classify each search term by performance:

Tier	Name	Condition
Q1	Profitable	Conversions ≥ 2, OR CPA ≤ target, OR ROAS ≥ target
Q2	Promising	Conversions = 0 AND cost < 0.5× target CPA AND no Q5 signals
Q3	Unproven	Conversions = 0 AND cost between 0.5×–1× target CPA
Q4	Losing	Cost ≥ 1× target CPA with 0 conversions, OR CPA ≥ 1.5× target, OR ROAS ≤ 0.7× target
Q5	Invalid	Query contains: free, cheap, diy, how to, job, salary, course, pdf, meaning, used, repair

Q5 terms are eliminated regardless of cost. Calculate spend share per tier.

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Step 2: Auction Pressure Classification

Rank Pressure

Rank Pressure = HIGH	if ANY true
IS Lost (Rank) ≥ 30%
Search IS ≤ 50% AND IS Lost (Rank) > IS Lost (Budget)
Top of Page Rate ≤ 60% on Q1 queries
Absolute Top ≤ 20% on Q1 queries

Rank Pressure = LOW	if ALL true
IS Lost (Rank) ≤ 20%
Top of Page Rate ≥ 70%
Absolute Top ≥ 30% on Q1 queries

Budget Pressure

Budget Pressure = HIGH	if ALL true
IS Lost (Budget) ≥ 20%
IS Lost (Budget) > IS Lost (Rank)
CPA ≤ target CPA
≥ 60% of spend from Q1–Q3

Budget Pressure = LOW	if ANY true
IS Lost (Budget) < 10%
CPA > target CPA
Q4 + Q5 spend ≥ 25%

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Step 3: Decision Matrix

Primary Action Table

Query Mix	Rank Pressure	Budget Pressure	Action
Q1-heavy	Low	High	Increase budget 10–20%
Q1-heavy	High	Low	Increase bids 5–10% OR improve ad relevance
Q1-heavy	High	High	Fix rank first, then budget
Q1-heavy	Low	Low	Hold — no changes needed
Q2–Q3 heavy	Low	High	Limited budget test
Q4+ present	High	Any	Cap or cut spend
Q5 present	Any	Any	Negate immediately

Metric-Specific Logic

Search IS: Low IS alone means nothing. Only act if Q1 share ≥ 50% AND IS Lost (Rank or Budget) explains it.

IS Lost (Rank): If majority Q1, CPA ≤ target, Rank Pressure HIGH → increase bids 5–10% or improve ad relevance. If CPA > target → do NOT raise bids, instead tighten queries (promote Q1 to Exact, kill Q3/Q4 leakage).

IS Lost (Budget): If CPA stable, Q1–Q3 share ≥ 60%, Budget Pressure HIGH → increase budget 10–20%. Otherwise fix queries first.

Top/Absolute Top: Use only on Q1 queries. If CVR at Top ≥ 1.15× rest → defend position. No CVR delta = ego tax, ignore.

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Step 4: CPC Inflation Diagnosis

When CPC is increasing (compare WoW per tool-fundamentals → CPC trend WoW), identify which case applies:

Symptom	Root Cause	Action
CPC ↑ AND IS Lost (Rank) ↑	Competition increased	Bid increase allowed ONLY if CPA ≤ target
CPC ↑ AND new Q4/Q5 terms appearing	Match type leakage	Add negatives, tighten match types
CPC ↑ AND CTR ↓	Ad relevance degraded	Improve ad copy, NOT bids

Only Case 1 (competition) justifies bid increases. Cases 2 and 3 require query or creative fixes.

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Step 5: Scaling Prerequisites

Scale ONLY if ALL true:

• Q1 queries isolated (Exact or tight Phrase match)
• CPA stable or improving over 14+ days
• IS Lost (Budget) ≥ 20%
• CPC WoW% increase < CVR WoW% increase (efficiency improving faster than costs)

If CPC rising faster than CVR → false scale signal. Do not increase budget.

Scaling step caps come from tool-fundamentals → Scaling step cap and guardrails.

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Step 6: Competitor & Brand Logic

Brand defense (when brand CPC ↑, Absolute Top ↓, competitor overlap ↑):

• Raise bids only on exact-match brand terms
• Tighten match types on brand campaigns
• Add competitor terms as negatives in non-brand campaigns

Competitor campaigns: Default state is OFF. Enable only if CPA ≤ 1.2× target AND Rank Pressure = LOW. Otherwise pause.

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Prohibitions

• Never increase budget to fix low IS without classifying queries first
• Never increase bids with Q4/Q5 terms present
• Never chase Absolute Top without CVR proof
• Never let Broad match dominate auction signals
• Never increase bids AND budget simultaneously

Weekly Execution Order (immutable)

1. Prune Q4/Q5 queries
2. Reclassify remaining queries
3. Recompute auction pressure
4. Make bid/budget moves
5. Fix ad relevance

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Next Steps

If changes need to be executed, load google_ads/search-execution for tool parameters and implementation details.

Output must include: query mix breakdown with spend shares, pressure diagnosis with IS metrics, CPC trend analysis with root cause, recommended actions in execution order, expected 7-day impact.