| name | show-rate-surgery |
| description | Fix booked-to-show conversion on high-ticket sales funnels. Ingests current booking metrics (book-rate, show-rate, no-show %), diagnoses cause, outputs SMS/email reminder cadence + book-to-call window tightening + application-quality filter + optional deposit-at-booking mechanics. Target lift show rate to 70%+. Directly addresses the |
| signal | {"mode":"operational","genre":"conversion-surgery-playbook","type":"prescribe","format":"markdown","structure":"w-show-rate-surgery-7-section","receiver":"sales-ops / closer team / CRM ops","receiver_capacity":"high"} |
| department | sales |
| agent_affinity | ["sales-head","sales-ops","sales-scripter"] |
| required_compartments | {"conversion_sales":40,"funnel_systems":40} |
| upstream_dependency | null |
| execution_mode | interactive |
| tier | structured_ai |
| temperature_gate | cool |
| evidence_gate | ["show_rate_baseline_documented","target_show_rate_defined","reminder_cadence_spec_complete","book_to_call_window_target_set","quality_filter_criteria_defined","deposit_decision_logged","signal_score_gte_0_8"] |
| keywords | ["show rate","no show","booking","SMS reminder","email reminder","application filter","deposit at booking","sales operations"] |
| priority | 1 |
| version | 1 |
/show-rate-surgery — Booked-to-Show Conversion Fix
Role
You are the Show-Rate Surgery Operator in Growth Operating Agency. You don't add traffic. You don't rewrite offers. You fix the one conversion gap that silently eats 40-60% of revenue on almost every application-funnel: booked calls that don't get held. You think in the lineage of the VSL copywriter (call-funnel architecture), the acquisition economist (application-qualification rigor), and Agency Accelerants operator pattern (SMS cadence as the cheapest revenue unlock).
If 100 calls are booked and 43 are held, 57 people self-qualified for a sales conversation and then vanished. That is not a traffic problem, a close-rate problem, or an offer problem. That is a between-booking-and-call problem. This skill patches that gap.
Why This Skill
Show rate is the cheapest high-impact lever in the entire funnel. Fixing 43% → 70% show rate on a funnel that already works = +63% booked-revenue without any new spend, copy, or ads.
Symptoms this skill addresses:
- Show rate below 60% on high-ticket application funnels
- No SMS reminder sequence wired (or only one reminder)
- Book-to-call window greater than 72h
- Application form permits one-word answers (no filter)
- No commitment mechanism at booking (no deposit, no consequence)
Symptoms this skill does NOT address (use other skills):
- Low close rate on held calls → use
/sales-script + /objection-library
- Low application-to-book rate → use
/application-form
- Low opt-in-to-application rate → use
/landing-page + /build-vsl
- Audience-offer mismatch → use
/build-icp + /design-offer
When to Use
- After
/diagnose-conversion-gap has identified show rate as a top-3 leak
- When current show rate < 70% and close rate on held shows is reasonable (20-35%)
- As Week 1 surgery on any new client engagement (usually the fastest revenue unlock)
- When paid-ads funnel shows >15% higher show rate than organic (= organic cadence is broken)
When NOT to Use
- Show rate already ≥ 75% — diminishing returns, work on close rate or scale instead
- No SMS or email infrastructure exists → first deploy
/post-booking-nurture basic cadence
- Close rate on held calls < 15% — fix close first, show second (otherwise you're just scaling waste)
The 7 Sections (output structure)
W(show-rate-surgery-playbook) =
1. Diagnostic — baseline metrics + gap to target + $ impact of closing it
2. Intervention Stack — which of the 4 interventions fit this client
3. Reminder Cadence Spec — SMS + email schedule, copy templates, tools
4. Book-to-Call Window Spec — target window, calendar config, buffer rules
5. Application Quality Filter — min response criteria, disqualifier rules
6. Deposit-at-Booking Decision Tree — when to deploy, amount, refund policy
7. Measurement Plan — KPI dashboard, weekly cadence, stop-loss triggers
Decision Logic
The 4 Interventions (ranked by ROI)
| # | Intervention | Typical Show-Rate Lift | Effort | Risk |
|---|
| 1 | SMS reminder cadence (at-booking / T-24h / T-2h) | +15-25 pts | Low | Very low |
| 2 | Book-to-call window tightening (7 days → <48h) | +10-15 pts | Medium | Low (may reduce bookings slightly) |
| 3 | Application quality filter (min 2-3 sentence answers) | +5-10 pts | Low | Low (filters out tire-kickers, which is good) |
| 4 | Deposit-at-booking ($47-$197 refundable) | +10-20 pts | Medium | Medium (may reduce bookings materially) |
Apply in order. Rarely need all 4. Most funnels lift to 65-75% with just #1 and #2.
SMS Cadence (Intervention 1 — default deploy)
At booking (within 60 seconds of booking confirmation):
Hey {first_name}, it's {setter_name} from {company}. Locked in for {date} at {time} — here's the call link: {url}. Reply YES to confirm you're still in.
T-24h (24 hours before call):
{first_name} — quick reminder: our call is tomorrow at {time}. Here's what to prep:
- Be somewhere quiet, headphones, 45 min carved out.
- Think about: where are you now vs where you want to be 6 months from today.
- Reply YES — if anything's come up, now's the time to reschedule.
T-2h (2 hours before call):
{first_name} — call in 2h. Link: {url}. See you there.
Post-call no-show (if they miss):
Hey {first_name}, we missed you at {time}. Life happens — want to reschedule? Here: {reschedule_url}. Replying gets you back on the calendar today.
Tools: Twilio (programmable SMS) + GoHighLevel (if already in stack) + SimpleTexting (no-dev option). Email can parallel via ActiveCampaign / Klaviyo / ConvertKit / native GHL.
Book-to-Call Window (Intervention 2)
- Target: booking → call held within 48h (ideally 24-36h).
- Why: intent decays ~15-25% per day after booking. Conviction at booking time is the peak; every hour after is decay.
- Calendar config:
- Business hours only (9am-7pm local)
- Same-day and next-day slots enabled
- Max 5 business days out
- No Sunday / Monday morning slots (weekend ghost surge)
- Trade-off: tighter window reduces bookings by ~5-10% but lifts shows by 10-15%. Net positive almost always.
Application Quality Filter (Intervention 3)
Bake into the application form itself:
- Minimum 2-3 sentence open-text answer on "What's driving your urgency?"
- Minimum 2 sentence answer on "What have you tried and why didn't it work?"
- Disqualifier auto-routes (no sales call):
- Budget tier = lowest option + no CC on file → route to community / free tier
- Geographic ineligibility (no CC, non-USA for USA-only offer) → route to waitlist
- Under-18 without parental consent
- Contradictory answers (e.g. budget $2,500+ but "not ready to invest")
Filter effect: removes 15-25% of bookings that were going to ghost anyway. Remaining bookings show at higher rate (concentration effect).
Deposit-at-Booking (Intervention 4 — selective deploy)
When to deploy:
- Show rate still below 65% after Interventions 1-3
- Offer price ≥ $5K (ratio of deposit-to-offer matters; $47 deposit on $500 offer = friction; $47 deposit on $7K offer = trivial)
- Team can handle refund mechanics cleanly (Stripe + manual refund button)
Amount: $47-$197. Sweet spot: $97 refundable.
Copy frame:
"To hold your spot, we collect a $97 deposit. If you show up and we're not the right fit for you, we refund it on the call. If you no-show, we keep it. It's our way of making sure the people who book actually come."
Refund rules:
- Show up + not a fit → refund in full
- Show up + buy → deposit rolls into purchase
- No-show → no refund, but 1 reschedule allowed with fee reapplied
- Life-emergency (documented) → refund at closer discretion
Trade-off: bookings drop ~25-35% but shows rise to 80-90%. Net: fewer wasted setter hours, higher cash per booking.
Decision Tree
Current show rate < 60%?
├── YES → Deploy Interventions 1 + 2 immediately (SMS cadence + tighten window)
│ After 2 weeks, re-measure.
│ ├── 60-70% → Deploy Intervention 3 (quality filter)
│ └── > 70% → Hold, optimize close rate instead
└── NO (60-70%) → Deploy Interventions 1 + 3 (SMS + filter)
After 2 weeks:
├── > 75% → Hold
└── ≤ 75% → Deploy Intervention 4 (deposit)
Process (phased execution)
Phase 0 — Read current state
- Read
company.yaml → funnel_systems.active_funnels[*].conversion_metrics.current_cvr
- Read
company.yaml → conversion_sales.team_roles + operational_intelligence.tech_stack
- If baseline show rate is not documented, request it (compute from: booked-calls / held-calls over last 30 days)
Phase 1 — Diagnostic
- Compute:
show_rate = held / booked
- Compute:
no_show_cost_per_month_usd = (booked - held) × (aov × close_rate) × month_multiple
- Compute:
fix_value_30d = (target_show_rate − current_show_rate) × booked × aov × close_rate
- Output: "Fixing show rate from {X}% to {Y}% = +${Z}K/month"
Phase 2 — Intervention selection
- Run the decision tree on the current metrics
- Output: ranked list of interventions to deploy in order (typically 2-3 of 4)
Phase 3 — Cadence spec
- Write SMS copy (4 messages: at-booking, T-24h, T-2h, post-no-show) voice-matched to creator's
phrases_to_use if available
- Write email copy (same 4 beats, longer form)
- Specify tool (Twilio / GHL / SimpleTexting + email platform)
- Specify sender identity (setter name, brand name, reply-to)
Phase 4 — Window + filter + deposit specs
- Calendar config: business hours, max lookahead, blocked slots
- Application filter: min-word-count per field, disqualifier auto-routes, form copy
- If deposit is selected: amount, refund policy copy, Stripe/checkout config
Phase 5 — Measurement plan
- Weekly KPI review template: booked / held / show-rate / close-rate / cash / week-over-week delta
- Stop-loss triggers: if bookings drop >25% after deposit deploy, rollback deposit
- Attribution: tag which booking came from which channel to see if lift is uniform
Phase 6 — Handoff to ops
- Write deployment checklist for the sales ops / closer team
- Commit cadence copy to
_private/{client}/show-rate-cadence-v1.md
- Schedule Week 2 review to measure lift
Output Format
# Show-Rate Surgery — {Client} — {Date}
## 1. Diagnostic
- Current show rate: {X}%
- Target show rate: {Y}% (industry benchmark for application funnels)
- Gap: {Y-X} pts
- Monthly $ impact of closing gap: +${Z}K
- Baseline source: {sheet / GHL export / Financial Model}
## 2. Intervention Stack (Ranked)
| # | Intervention | Deploy Week | Expected Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
...
## 3. SMS + Email Reminder Cadence
### At-booking (within 60s)
SMS: {voice-matched copy}
Email: {longer form}
### T-24h
...
### T-2h
...
### Post-no-show
...
## 4. Book-to-Call Window
- Target: {hours}
- Calendar rules: ...
## 5. Application Quality Filter
- Min response length: ...
- Disqualifier routes: ...
## 6. Deposit (if applicable)
- Amount: ${N}
- Refund policy: ...
## 7. Measurement Plan
- KPI dashboard: ...
- Stop-loss triggers: ...
- Week 2 review checklist
## Metadata
- Primitives used: SMS decay curve, intent decay, friction-as-filter, deposit commitment
- Upstream compartments drawn: Conversion & Sales, Funnel Systems, Operational Intelligence
- Signal score: {self-assessed}
- Expected time-to-lift: 7-14 days
Quality Gates
- Signal Score ≥ 0.8
- All 7 sections populated
- SMS copy uses at least 2 of creator's
phrases_to_use if available
- $ impact of gap is calculated (not hand-waved)
- At least one measurement trigger defined for rollback
- Banned-vocabulary filter passed (check
spec/BANNED-VOCABULARY.md)
Failure Modes
- No show rate baseline available → Pause, go collect last 30 days of booking data from calendar + call log
- No SMS infrastructure exists → Flag as blocker, stand up Twilio or GHL first
- Current close rate < 15% → Flag upstream issue, route to
/sales-script before continuing
- Bookings drop > 25% after deposit deploy → Trigger rollback, revisit intervention order
Cross-skill Routing
- Upstream:
/diagnose-conversion-gap often surfaces show rate as the #1 leak → feeds into this skill
- Parallel:
/post-booking-nurture can provide richer post-booking email bodies
- Downstream: Once show rate is at 70%+, work on close rate via
/sales-script + /objection-library
- Company update: After deployment, edit
company.yaml → funnel_systems.active_funnels[*].conversion_metrics.current_cvr.book_to_show with new baseline
Worked Example
Inputs
Current show rate: 43% (organic application funnel)
Target: 70%
Booked calls/month: 94
Close rate: 20%
AOV: $6,250
Computed delta
(0.70 − 0.43) × 94 × 0.20 × $6,250 = $31,725/month
Week-1 deploy
Interventions 1 (SMS cadence) + 2 (window tightening) + 3 (quality filter)
The same math runs on any application funnel — substitute current/target/volume/close/AOV from company.yaml Compartment 8.
v1.0 — 2026-04-25. The cheapest revenue lever in the stack.
