estimate-tasks

name	estimate-tasks
type	atomic
license	MIT
description	Assigns relative effort estimates using story points (Fibonacci) t-shirt sizes or time ranges — never mix frameworks within a single table, include confidence level per task, use table format with ID Task Estimate Confidence Notes, and flag high-uncertainty items. Language-agnostic. Use when the user asks to estimate effort, size tasks, or assign story points to backlog items. Trigger words: estimate, story points, t-shirt size, effort, sizing, fibonacci.
metadata	{"version":"1.0.0","user-invocable":"true"}

Estimating Task Effort

Assign relative complexity estimates. Focus on comparison, not calendar time.

Quick Reference

• Input: Task list (from generate-tasks) or PRD requirements.
• Frameworks: Story points, t-shirt sizes, time ranges.
• Output: Each task annotated with estimate + confidence.
• Rule: Flag uncertainty - never fabricate precision.

HARD-GATE

DO NOT assign estimates you don't understand.
DO NOT default to "3 points" or "Medium" as a placeholder.
DO flag tasks needing further breakdown.
DO state confidence (high/medium/low) for every estimate.

Core Process

1. Receive - task list or PRD requirements.
2. Detect framework - ask user or infer from context (see Estimation Frameworks below).
3. Analyze each task - scope, unknowns, whether it needs further breakdown.
4. Assign - relative sizing, confidence level per task.
5. Flag - low-confidence tasks (recommend spike), oversized tasks (recommend split).
6. Output - annotated task list.

Estimation Frameworks

Framework	Scale	Use When
Story Points (Fibonacci)	1 Trivial · 2 Small · 3 Medium · 5 Large · 8 Very Large · 13 Epic (→ split)	Agile/Scrum teams focusing on relative complexity
T-Shirt Sizes	XS · S · M · L · XL (→ split)	High-level roadmap sizing or stakeholder-facing discussions
Time Ranges	<1d · 1-2d · 3-5d · 1-2wk · 2+wk (→ split)	Fixed-bid projects requiring calendar anchors

Mixing frameworks: Never mix frameworks within a single estimation table. If the user switches frameworks mid-session, re-estimate the full table.

Output Style

1. Framework - state which framework was used and why.
2. Estimation table - | ID | Task | Estimate | Confidence | Notes |
3. Flagged items - tasks needing spikes or splits, with reasoning.
4. Summary - total estimate, confidence distribution, callouts.
5. English only unless user requests otherwise.

Integration

Skill	When to chain
generate-tasks	Estimate tasks immediately after generation
identify-risks	After estimation, assess dependency and uncertainty risks
plan-sprint	Select tickets based on capacity vs estimates

---

Reference: Worked Example

Supplementary reference only. Illustrates a complete estimation session, including a spike-blocked item.

Framework: Story points (Fibonacci) - inferred from backlog context.

ID	Task	Estimate	Confidence	Notes
T1	Add user login via email/password	3	High	Well-understood auth pattern, existing library available
T2	Build admin dashboard with role filtering	8	Medium	UI scope is clear; role logic may expand
T3	Integrate payment gateway	WARNING TBD	Low	API complexity unknown - spike required before estimating
T4	Write unit tests for auth module	2	High	Scope directly tied to T1, straightforward

Flagged items:

• T3 - "Integrate payment gateway": Low confidence. Recommend a time-boxed spike (1-2 days) to evaluate API docs, sandbox availability, and edge-case handling before assigning points.

Summary: 3 estimated tasks total 13 points (High: 2, Medium: 1). T3 blocked pending spike. Re-estimate T3 after spike completes.