autoresearch

name	autoresearch
description	Autonomous research loop inspired by karpathy/autoresearch. Iteratively modify a target file (config, prompt, code), run an experiment with a fixed evaluation metric, keep improvements, discard regressions, and log everything to a TSV. Use when optimizing prompts, tuning hyperparameters, evolving agent configurations, or running overnight autonomous improvement loops.

Autoresearch Skill

Autonomous experiment loop for iterative research. Inspired by karpathy/autoresearch: modify code, run experiment, measure metric, keep or discard, repeat.

Core Pattern

LOOP:
  1. Hypothesize — form an idea based on past results
  2. Modify — edit the target file(s)
  3. Commit — snapshot the change
  4. Run — execute the experiment (fixed budget)
  5. Measure — extract the key metric
  6. Decide — keep (metric improved) or revert (metric worse/equal)
  7. Log — record result in results.tsv
  GOTO 1

Setup

Before starting the loop, establish:

1. Target file(s): What gets modified each iteration (e.g., train.py, prompt.md, config.yaml, swarm_manager.py)
2. Run command: How to execute the experiment (e.g., uv run train.py, novastorm deploy --epochs 5)
3. Metric: What to optimize (e.g., val_bpb lower-is-better, avg_score higher-is-better, bootstrapping_rate higher-is-better)
4. Extraction command: How to get the metric from output (e.g., grep "^val_bpb:" run.log)
5. Time budget: Max time per experiment (e.g., 5 minutes, 1 hour)
6. Branch: Create autoresearch/<tag> branch for the run
7. Baseline: Run unmodified code first to establish starting metric

Initialize Results Log

Create results.tsv with header:

commit	metric	status	description

The Experiment Loop

Step 1: Hypothesize

Review past results in results.tsv. Consider:

• What worked? Try variations of successful changes
• What failed? Avoid similar approaches
• What's unexplored? Try orthogonal ideas
• Can successful changes be combined?

Step 2: Modify Target File

Make ONE focused change per experiment. Examples:

• Prompt tuning: Adjust instructions, add constraints, change examples
• Hyperparameters: Learning rate, batch size, temperature, thresholds
• Architecture: Model config, tool selection, agent structure
• GEPA tuning: Mutation rate, elite retention, crossover probability, fitness scaling

Step 3: Commit

git add <target-file>
git commit -m "experiment: <brief description>"

Step 4: Run

<run-command> > run.log 2>&1

Redirect all output — do NOT flood context. If using a long-running pipeline, use background execution and poll for completion.

Step 5: Measure

<extraction-command>

If empty output → experiment crashed. Run tail -n 50 run.log to diagnose.

Step 6: Decide

• Metric improved → KEEP. Advance the branch.
• Metric equal or worse → DISCARD. git reset --hard HEAD~1
• Crashed → Attempt quick fix (typo, import). If fundamentally broken, discard and move on.

Simplicity criterion (from Karpathy): A tiny improvement that adds ugly complexity is not worth it. Removing something and getting equal or better results is a great outcome.

Step 7: Log

Append to results.tsv:

<commit>	<metric>	<keep|discard|crash>	<description>

Repeat

NEVER STOP unless manually interrupted. If out of ideas:

• Re-read target files for new angles
• Try combining previous near-misses
• Try more radical changes
• Review the literature or docs

Applying to NovaStorm

Optimizing GEPA Parameters

Target: src/swarm_manager.py (or .env)
Run: novastorm deploy --epochs 5 --concurrency 10
Metric: bootstrapping_rate (higher is better), avg_score (higher is better)
Extract: Parse progress.json from GCS after pipeline completes
Budget: ~30 minutes per experiment

Variables to tune:

• RANDOM_MUTATION_RATE (currently 0.25)
• ELITE_RETENTION_RATE (currently 0.2)
• FITNESS_SCALING_FACTOR (currently 0.08)
• CROSSOVER_RATE (currently 0.25)
• ADAPTIVE_THRESHOLD_FLOOR (currently 0.25)
• DIVERSITY_SCALING (currently 0.4)

Optimizing Skill Synthesis Prompts

Target: src/swarm_manager.py (skill_architect prompt)
Run: novastorm deploy --epochs 5 --concurrency 10
Metric: tool_diversity (% of insights using 3+ distinct tools), bootstrapping_rate
Extract: Parse JSONL logs from GCS
Budget: ~30 minutes per experiment

Optimizing Critic Scoring

Target: src/critic_agent.py
Run: novastorm deploy --epochs 5 --concurrency 10
Metric: score_variance (lower variance = more consistent), threshold_convergence
Extract: Parse JSONL logs for score distribution
Budget: ~30 minutes per experiment

Fast Local Experiments (No Pipeline)

For quick iterations without deploying a full pipeline:

Target: src/swarm_manager.py
Run: uv run pytest tests/test_swarm_manager.py -v
Metric: test pass rate, phase diversity in test output
Extract: pytest exit code + grep test output
Budget: ~30 seconds per experiment

Results TSV Format

Tab-separated. Do NOT use commas in descriptions.

commit	metric	status	description
a1b2c3d	0.380	keep	baseline: 5 epochs default params
b2c3d4e	0.420	keep	increase MUTATION_RATE from 0.25 to 0.35
c3d4e5f	0.390	discard	decrease ELITE_RETENTION to 0.05
d4e5f6g	0.000	crash	set CROSSOVER_RATE to 1.0 (division by zero)
e5f6g7h	0.570	keep	combined: MUTATION=0.35 + SCALING=0.06

Key Principles

1. One change at a time — isolate variables so you know what caused improvement
2. Fixed evaluation — same epochs, concurrency, and dataset across experiments
3. Keep or discard — no partial keeps. Binary decision per experiment
4. Log everything — even crashes are data points
5. Simplicity wins — if removing code gives equal results, that's a win
6. Autonomous — don't stop to ask. Run until interrupted
7. Compound gains — small improvements stack. 1% per iteration × 100 iterations = transformative