test-hypothesis

name	test-hypothesis
description	Genuinely test a crypto trading hypothesis through the committed anti-overfitting gauntlet and return an honest SURVIVE/PROMISING/KILL/DEFERRED verdict. Use when asked to test, validate, or "revive" any trading technique, indicator, signal, or strategy.

Skill: test-hypothesis

Test one trading hypothesis the way this lab does — try hard to make it work, then judge it honestly. Change the target, never the gates.

Procedure

1. Frame it. Write the academic prior + the causal mechanism. Choose the right null for the claim (see AGENTS.md Rule 6 / docs/METHODOLOGY.md): time-series→phase/block; rotation→cross-sectional shuffle; path-exits→bracket-on-surrogate; vol-clustering→GARCH; VRP→shuffled-VRP; calendar→reanchor + family-wise MAX-stat; macro/sentiment→AR-matched.

2. Build the strongest honest version. Sound signal, sensible params, features lagged h≥1. If it shows early promise, strengthen it (regime conditioning, vol-target, better exits) — but count every config you try in the honest N. Reuse a per-domain harness as a template: scripts/edgehunt-D5/harness.ts (runGauntlet). Data is $0 — fetch with the relevant scripts/edgehunt-*/fetch*.ts.

3. Charge realistic cost. Taker ~4 bps/side on every position change; financing/borrow on the full levered/short notional, not 1 unit.

4. Run the full gauntlet via runGauntlet (or validateStrategy() in src/lib/validation/strategy-validator.ts): net_of_cost → baselines (B&H and matched-exposure; beta-neutrality for cross-sectional) → Deflated Sharpe @ honest N → block-bootstrap CI → CPCV/PBO → Harvey–Liu haircut → the right surrogate null → consume-once holdout.

5. Decide honestly. A surrogate PASS proves structure, not magnitude-significance at honest N on unseen data. End with exactly one line: VERDICT: <SURVIVE|PROMISING|KILL|DEFERRED> | net Sharpe <x> | binding gate <g> | honest N <n> | surrogate p <p> | monthly@$100k <$|n/a> | confidence <low/med/high + why>

6. If PROMISING, hand it to the audit-result skill before believing it — the family-wise surrogate + financing recharge kill most apparent edges.

Guardrails

• Never loosen a gate to get a SURVIVE. If you think a gate is wrong, make it stricter and re-run everything.
• A clean KILL is a valuable, publishable result — do not manufacture a survivor.
• Write scripts under scripts/<your-test>/ and the result/verdict under output/<your-test>/.