market-memo

name	market-memo
description	write a structured memo for a polymarket market or event. use when the user asks to analyze a single market, summarize current odds, liquidity, spread, recent flow, resolution mechanics, or prepare a trade brief before acting. for broad candidate sets or ranking questions, use opportunity-classifier first.

market memo

Use this skill to answer one question:

what is happening in this market right now, what matters, and what should the user do next?

This skill is a compact single-name briefing layer:

• downstream of opportunity-classifier
• upstream of deep-market-research, strategy-draft, and order-ticket

It should produce a decision-useful memo, not a full research dossier and not an execution plan.

default mode

• Default to memo mode.
• In memo mode, optimize for current-state clarity, resolution mechanics, and practical next-step framing.
• Do not drift into broad market ranking, external deep research, fair-value modeling, or order construction unless the handoff rules require it.

what this skill is for

Use this skill when the user is effectively asking:

• what does this market look like right now?
• what are the important mechanics or resolution risks?
• is the price action notable or just noise?
• what is the clean bull case and bear case?
• is this worth deeper work or not?

Use this skill for:

• one market or one event
• a fast but disciplined market brief
• translating live market state into a compact memo before strategy
• clarifying mechanics and ambiguity before spending more effort

Do not use this skill to:

• rank a broad list of markets
• invent fair value from weak evidence
• perform a full evidence-heavy research synthesis
• construct a live order plan
• preview, submit, or cancel orders

minimum viable input checklist

Do not finalize a memo until you have, or explicitly mark as missing:

• one resolved market identifier
• current implied probability or midpoint context
• spread and liquidity context
• recent flow or price context
• clear resolution text or equivalent resolution source
• one concrete note on what could create ambiguity or mechanical confusion

When useful, also pull:

• comments when sentiment or new information may matter
• related markets when cross-market context could change interpretation

If you cannot support the current-state section with live reads, say so explicitly.

outside-in frame

Before writing the memo, inspect the market from these lenses:

• mechanics lens: what exactly resolves this market, and who decides?
• pricing lens: what is the market currently implying, and is the move meaningful?
• flow lens: does the orderbook and recent trade activity look healthy, stale, or distorted?
• resolution-risk lens: what could make settlement messy even if the headline seems simple?
• workflow lens: is a memo the right next step, or should this route to classifier, research, strategy, or ticketing instead?

If the workflow lens says the real problem is ranking, fair-value work, or execution, hand off instead of overextending the memo.

dependency and handoff rules

If the main missing piece is:

• triage across many markets or deciding what deserves attention -> opportunity-classifier
• external evidence, catalyst mapping, linked-market inconsistency, or fair-value synthesis -> deep-market-research
• explicit probability modeling, visible scenario math, or threshold pricing -> actuarial-forecasting
• entry bands, invalidation, exit logic, or wait-versus-act framing -> strategy-draft
• exact preview-safe order construction or live execution planning -> order-ticket

If actuarial-forecasting is not installed locally, use the fallback at ossianravn/actuarial-forecasting.

main workflow

1. Normalize the assignment

Write a 1-2 line intent statement for yourself covering:

• which market is being memoed
• whether the user wants a brief, a pre-trade read, or a mechanics check
• what decision the memo is supposed to support

2. Refresh the live state

Use the minimum MCP read set that can support the memo:

• always start with get_market_snapshot
• add get_orderbook when spread, depth, or slippage context matters
• add get_recent_trades when flow quality or stale books matter
• add get_price_history when recent movement needs interpretation
• add comments only when they may contain material context, not as filler

Do not assume yesterday's state still holds.

3. Separate observed facts from interpretation

Create a clean split between:

• observed market state: price, spread, depth, flow, recent move, mechanics
• your inference: why that state matters and what it suggests

Do not smuggle narrative claims into the observed section.

4. Explain the resolution path

Summarize:

• what counts as a win
• who or what likely determines resolution
• what timing matters
• what ambiguity or edge-case wording could matter operationally

Keep this practical. The user should finish this section knowing how the market could settle and where disputes could arise.

5. Build the compact argument set

State the strongest:

• bull case
• bear case
• market-structure note

These should be concise and decision-relevant, not a long research memo.

6. End with next-step framing

Close the memo by stating:

• whether the market looks clean enough for strategy work
• whether the setup still needs research
• whether the user should wait because market conditions are poor

Execution considerations may discuss passive-versus-aggressive conditions at a high level, but this skill must stop short of strategy or ticket construction.

hard rules

• Do not place, preview, submit, or cancel orders in this skill.
• Do not invent fair value from price action alone.
• Do not write a mini deep-research report when the user asked for a memo.
• Do not skip resolution mechanics just because the market is liquid or popular.
• Do not blur observed market facts with your interpretation.
• Do not turn "execution considerations" into an order plan.
• Do not omit the recommended next handoff when the memo surfaces a clearer next step.

output contract

Return exactly these sections in this order.

[market title]

intent

State in 1-2 sentences:

• what the memo is about
• what decision it is intended to support

current state

List:

• implied probability
• best bid / ask and spread context
• liquidity or depth note
• recent price movement
• recent flow note

resolution and mechanics

List:

• what resolves the market
• what counts as a win
• important timing detail
• the main ambiguity or edge case

bull case

List the strongest reasons the market could move higher or be more favorable to the target side.

bear case

List the strongest reasons the market could move lower or be less favorable to the target side.

market structure notes

List:

• orderbook shape or microstructure note
• sentiment or comments note if material
• related-market note if relevant
• whether the market looks clean, noisy, or operationally awkward

execution considerations

Keep this high-level:

• whether the setup looks strategy-ready
• passive-versus-aggressive leaning if it is obvious
• reasons to wait
• why this is not yet an order recommendation

next handoff

Choose one:

• remain in market-memo
• hand off to opportunity-classifier
• hand off to deep-market-research
• hand off to actuarial-forecasting
• hand off to strategy-draft
• hand off to order-ticket

Explain why that is the cheapest useful next step.

completion criteria

The memo is complete only when:

• the live market state is refreshed and summarized
• mechanics and resolution risk are explicit
• observed facts are distinct from interpretation
• the bull and bear cases are both present
• execution considerations stay high-level
• the memo names the best next step without overreaching into it

common failure modes

• writing a vague summary with no live mechanics
• turning the memo into a classifier for multiple names
• confusing comments or sentiment with hard evidence
• skipping resolution ambiguity because the headline sounds simple
• drifting into fair-value claims without real modeling
• turning execution considerations into a strategy or ticket

activation tests

Should trigger

• "give me a memo on this polymarket market."
• "summarize the current state of this market before I trade it."
• "what do the odds, spread, and flow look like here?"
• "explain the mechanics and bull/bear case for this one market."
• "write a short trade brief, but do not place any orders."

Should not trigger

• "which of these ten markets deserve research?"
• "estimate the fair odds for this event."
• "turn this thesis into an execution plan."
• "preview a 30c bid."
• "submit this order."

resource map

• opportunity-classifier — use when ranking, filtering, or triage is still the main question
• deep-market-research — use when external evidence, catalyst mapping, or fair-value synthesis is needed
• strategy-draft — use when the user now needs entry, invalidation, or exit framing
• order-ticket — use when the user is ready for a guarded execution plan