| name | financial-analysis-earnings-preview |
| description | Pre-earnings preview workflow for US stocks. Use when asked to: preview upcoming earnings; set expectations for next quarter; build bull/base/bear scenarios ahead of earnings; prepare for earnings release; understand what Wall Street expects. Triggers: "preview AAPL earnings", "what to expect from NVDA next quarter", "earnings preview MSFT", "build scenarios for GOOGL earnings", "prepare for Tesla earnings release". Note: For POST-earnings analysis (after results are out), use earnings-analysis skill instead.
|
Earnings Preview
Build a pre-earnings preview with consensus estimates, historical trend, scenarios, and catalyst checklist. Uses SEC EDGAR for historical financials and web search for consensus/dates.
Setup
No dependencies required. All scripts use Python standard library only.
Workflow
Step 1 — Find earnings date and consensus (web search)
Always search first. Do NOT rely on training data for consensus estimates.
Search A — earnings date:
[Company] [ticker] earnings date Q[X] FY[YYYY][Ticker] earnings release date when
Search B — consensus estimates (run in parallel with Step 2):
[Company] Q[X] FY[YYYY] earnings preview consensus estimate revenue EPS[Ticker] earnings estimates Wall Street expectations Q[X] FY[YYYY]
If Search B returns only vague language without absolute dollar figures, run:
[Ticker] Q[X] FY[YYYY] revenue estimate $B analyst consensus
Extract ALL before proceeding:
| Field | Notes |
|---|
| Earnings date | Exact date; "date not confirmed" if unavailable |
| Quarter being reported (e.g. Q2 FY2026) | Explicit fiscal quarter — not "next quarter" |
| Revenue consensus estimate | Must be absolute dollar value (e.g. "$29.3B") |
| Adj. EPS consensus estimate | Must be a dollar figure (e.g. "$2.18") |
| Prior guidance range | Company's guidance for this period |
| Key analyst themes | 2-3 expectations or concerns |
Verify the earnings date is in the future. If it has passed, that quarter is already reported — search for the next upcoming date instead.
Step 2 — Pull historical trend (scripts)
Run in parallel with Search B:
bash run.sh <SYMBOL> --form 10-Q --periods 8
bash run.sh <SYMBOL> --form 10-K --periods 3
10-Q data is YTD cumulative. Derive standalone quarters by subtraction:
- Q1 = Q1 YTD
- Q2 = H1 YTD − Q1 YTD
- Q3 = 9M YTD − H1 YTD
- Q4 = Full-year (10-K) − 9M YTD
Present as mandatory trend table (minimum 4 quarters + estimate row):
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Gross Margin | Op. Margin | Diluted EPS |
|---|
| Q[X-3] FY[YYYY] A | $X.XB | +X% | XX.X% | XX.X% | $X.XX |
| Q[X] FY[YYYY] E | $X.XB(E) | +X%E | — | — | $X.XX(E) |
The last row "Q[X] FY[YYYY] E" is consensus from Step 1 — mark as "(E)" for estimate.
Step 3 — Build scenarios
| Bull | Base | Bear |
|---|
| Revenue | Beat consensus by ~X% | In-line | Miss by ~X% |
| Adj. EPS | Beat | In-line | Miss |
| Gross margin | Expansion vs prior year | Flat | Compression |
| Key driver | Upside in [segment] | Steady execution | Weakness in [risk] |
Anchor to history: Use the company's historical beat/miss magnitude from the trend table to size the bull and bear scenarios. For example, if the company has beaten revenue consensus by ~10% in recent quarters (e.g. NVDA), use ~8-12% for bull — not a generic 2-4%. For mature companies with consistent ~1% beats, use ~1-3%. State the primary trigger for each scenario.
Step 4 — Catalyst checklist
List 3-5 watchpoints:
[ ] Key question (e.g. "Does [segment] revenue accelerate above X%?")
Why it matters: [1-2 sentences]
What to look for: [specific metric or commentary]
Focus on: key segment variance, margin trajectory, forward guidance, prior quarter risks.
Output Format
Header box (mandatory, always first):
[COMPANY] ([TICKER]) — Q[X] FY[YYYY] EARNINGS PREVIEW
Earnings date: [exact date or "TBC"]
Consensus: Revenue $X.XB (+X% YoY) | Adj. EPS $X.XX (+X% YoY)
Prior guidance: [range or "not provided"]
Source: [source name, retrieved YYYY-MM-DD]
Section 1 — Trend table (mandatory, min 4 quarters + estimate row)
Section 2 — Trend commentary (3-5 sentences)
Section 3 — What the Street expects
Section 4 — Scenarios (Bull / Base / Bear table)
Section 5 — Catalyst checklist (3-5 watchpoints)
Closing caveat:
Earnings previews are based on consensus estimates from public sources and historical reported data. Actual results may differ materially. This is not investment advice.
Formatting Rules
- Revenue / profit: B or M, e.g. "$29.3B"
- Margins: one decimal percent, e.g. "48.2%"
- EPS: two decimals, e.g. "$2.18"
- Growth rates: one decimal, e.g. "+12.4% YoY"
Limitations
- No real-time consensus: estimates from web search — always note source and date
- SEC EDGAR lag: filed data may not include most recent quarter
- 10-Q is cumulative YTD: always subtract prior periods for standalone quarters
- US stocks only: SEC EDGAR covers US-listed equities only
