| name | geopolitical-influence |
| description | Use when the user wants to analyze a geopolitical event (conflict, sanction, trade war, election, central bank policy shift) for market impact — mapping the event to affected sectors/assets, directional bias, recommended hedges, and 3 weighted scenarios. |
Geopolitical Influence Analyzer
Overview
Analyzes geopolitical events for market impact. Searches current news, maps events to affected sectors and assets, confirms signals with live sentiment and strategy data from the trader CLI, and outputs structured scenarios (base/bull/bear) with probability weights and actionable hedging guidance.
When to Use
- "How does the Russia/Ukraine escalation affect my portfolio?"
- "What's the market impact of the new US-China tariffs?"
- "Fed just signaled rate pause — what sectors benefit?"
- "There's an election in [country] — what moves?"
- "Analyze the oil embargo news for my energy positions"
- Any overnight geopolitical event before market open
Event Categories
| Category | Examples | Primary Asset Impact |
|---|
| Armed conflict / escalation | Regional wars, airstrikes | Oil, defense (LMT/RTX/NOC), gold, airlines |
| Sanctions / trade restrictions | Export controls, embargoes | Semiconductors, agricultural commodities |
| Trade war / tariffs | US-China duties, Section 301 | Industrials, consumer discretionary, logistics |
| Election / regime change | Major economy elections | Domestic equities, currency, sovereign bonds |
| Central bank policy shift | Rate hike/cut surprise, QE/QT | Rates-sensitive sectors, financials, growth stocks |
| Energy supply shock | OPEC cut, pipeline disruption | XLE, XOP, airlines, chemicals, transportation |
| Pandemic / health emergency | Outbreak, travel restrictions | Healthcare, pharma, travel & leisure |
| Cyber / infrastructure attack | Grid, financial system targets | Cybersecurity (CRWD/PANW), utilities |
CLI Integration
uv run trader news sentiment TICKER --lookback 48h
uv run trader news latest --tickers TICKER1,TICKER2 --limit 15
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers AFFECTED_TICKERS --strategy rsi --with-news
uv run trader positions list
uv run trader quotes get TICKER1 TICKER2 TICKER3
Workflow
Step 1 — Event Identification and Classification
Gather the geopolitical event details:
- What: Specific event description
- Where: Geography (country/region)
- Who: Key actors (governments, central banks, corporations)
- When: Timeline (announced, ongoing, expected resolution)
- Category: Use the Event Categories table above
Use web search to pull current headlines, official statements, and analyst reactions. Search for:
"[event keyword] market impact site:reuters.com OR site:bloomberg.com""[event keyword] sector ETF""[commodity/currency] [event keyword] outlook"
Step 2 — Sector and Asset Mapping
Map the event to directly and indirectly affected sectors:
Direct impact — sectors/assets with an obvious first-order link:
| Event Type | Long bias | Short bias |
|---|
| Oil supply disruption | XLE, XOP, CVX, XOM | Airlines (AAL/DAL/UAL), chemicals |
| US-China trade tension | Defense (ITA), domestic mfg | Semiconductors (SOXX), Apple supply chain |
| Rate hike surprise | Financials (XLF), short-duration | Utilities (XLU), REITs (VNQ), growth (QQQ) |
| Armed conflict (Europe) | Defense, gold (GLD), oil | European equities, tourism |
| Dollar strengthening | Gold shorts, EM debt caution | Commodities priced in USD |
| Sanctions on tech exports | Domestic semis (INTC/TXN) | NVDA China exposure, ASML |
Indirect / second-order impact — derive from supply chain, currency, consumer confidence effects.
Step 3 — Confirm with Live CLI Data
For the top 5-8 most affected tickers, run:
uv run trader news latest --tickers XLE,CVX,XOM,AAL,DAL --limit 10
uv run trader news sentiment XLE --lookback 48h
uv run trader news sentiment AAL --lookback 48h
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers XLE,CVX,AAL,DAL --strategy rsi --with-news
Parse the CLI output:
- Sentiment > 0.3 + RSI < 40 → strong bullish setup (oversold with positive catalyst)
- Sentiment < -0.3 + RSI > 60 → strong bearish setup (overbought with negative catalyst)
- Divergence between sentiment and RSI → wait for confirmation
Step 4 — Check Portfolio Exposure
uv run trader positions list
Identify which current holdings overlap with the affected sectors. Flag:
- Direct exposure — position in an affected ticker
- Sector exposure — position in an ETF covering the affected sector
- Indirect exposure — position in companies with significant revenue from the affected region
Step 5 — Build Three Scenarios
For each scenario, assign a probability (Base + Bull + Bear = 100%):
Base Case (most likely, 50-60%)
- Event resolves along consensus expectations
- Affected sectors reprice moderately then stabilize
- Describe: duration, magnitude of move, key triggers to watch
Bull Case (upside, 20-30%)
- Event resolves faster or better than expected (ceasefire, deal, policy reversal)
- Describe: specific positive catalyst, sectors that outperform, magnitude
Bear Case (downside, 15-25%)
- Event escalates or broadens (widening conflict, retaliatory sanctions, contagion)
- Describe: specific escalation trigger, sectors that underperform, magnitude, tail risk
Step 6 — Recommended Hedges
Based on event type and portfolio exposure, suggest hedges:
| Situation | Hedge Instrument | CLI Command |
|---|
| Equity downside | Put on SPY or QQQ | trader orders buy SPY 1 --contract-type option --right put --expiry ... --strike ... |
| Energy spike risk | Long XLE calls | trader orders buy XLE 1 --contract-type option --right call --expiry ... |
| Safe haven flight | Long GLD | trader orders buy GLD 50 |
| Portfolio short | Trailing stop on vulnerable positions | trader orders trailing-stop TICKER --trail-percent 3.0 |
Only recommend hedges proportional to the event severity rating.
Step 7 — Output Report
GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE ANALYSIS
Event: [Event Name]
Date: {date}
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
EVENT SUMMARY
Category: [e.g. Armed Conflict / Energy Supply Shock]
Severity: High | Medium | Low
Geography: [Region]
Status: Developing | Contained | Resolving
SEVERITY RATING
High = Systemic risk, broad market impact, VIX likely spikes >25
Medium = Sector-specific, 1-3 weeks of elevated volatility
Low = Limited to single asset class, market likely shrugs within days
AFFECTED SECTORS & DIRECTIONAL BIAS
↑ XLE (Energy) — Oil supply disruption → price spike → producers benefit
↑ GLD (Gold) — Flight to safety
↓ AAL/DAL/UAL — Fuel cost spike, potential route disruptions
↓ SOXX (Semis) — Export restriction risk
LIVE SIGNAL CONFIRMATION
XLE: Sentiment +0.62, RSI 38 → Bullish setup (oversold + positive catalyst)
AAL: Sentiment -0.51, RSI 64 → Bearish setup (overbought + negative catalyst)
PORTFOLIO EXPOSURE
Direct: [list overlapping positions]
Indirect: [list sector/geographic overlaps]
SCENARIOS
Base (55%): [Description, expected moves, timeline]
Bull (25%): [Catalyst, outperformers, magnitude]
Bear (20%): [Escalation trigger, downside, tail risk]
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
1. [Immediate hedge if severity=High]
2. [Trim or protect vulnerable positions]
3. [Opportunistic long in benefiting sector]
COMMANDS TO EXECUTE
# Paste-ready CLI commands with specific parameters
Quick Reference
| Goal | Command |
|---|
| Sector sentiment scan | uv run trader news sentiment XLE --lookback 48h |
| Affected tickers news | uv run trader news latest --tickers T1,T2 --limit 15 |
| Signal confirmation | uv run trader strategies signals --tickers T1,T2 --strategy rsi --with-news |
| Portfolio exposure | uv run trader positions list |
| Protect position | uv run trader orders trailing-stop TICKER --trail-percent 3.0 |
| Safe haven buy | uv run trader orders buy GLD 50 |
Common Mistakes
- Overcalling severity — not every geopolitical headline is High severity. Use the VIX proxy (>25 = High, 18-25 = Medium, <18 = Low) as a calibration check.
- Ignoring second-order effects — a conflict's biggest market impact is often indirect (e.g. Europe energy crisis → USD strength → EM pressure).
- Skipping CLI confirmation — always run sentiment + RSI signals before committing to a trade thesis. News may already be priced in.
- Probability math — Base + Bull + Bear must equal exactly 100%.
- Wrong lookback for sentiment — use
--lookback 48h for breaking news, --lookback 7d for slower-developing situations.
- Acting without checking positions — always run
positions list first to know your existing exposure before recommending new trades.
