restock-memo

name	restock-memo
description	Generate a restock decision draft for a SKU using velocity, lead time, MOQ, and cash position. Run from vault root with /restock-memo {ASIN} --weeks=12. Writes a draft to wiki/decisions/ for sign-off, never submits a PO.

/restock-memo

Draft a restock decision page for one SKU.

When to use

• Every Monday during the weekly restock cycle.
• Any time days_on_hand < lead_time + 28 for a SKU.
• Before placing any PO above $50K.

Inputs

• {ASIN} (required) - parent ASIN.
• --weeks=12 (optional) - target weeks of cover after restock. Default 12.
• --supplier={name} (optional) - override which supplier page to read from.

What the skill does

1. Read SKU page frontmatter: cogs_landed, units_30d, days_on_hand, supplier, status, cm3_30d.
2. Read supplier page frontmatter: moq, lead_time_days, payment_terms, currency.
3. Read latest finance state: open the most recent wiki/finance/monthly-close-*.md for cash + open PO total.
4. Compute restock quantity using the formula in [[wiki/concepts/restock-formula]]:
   • Weekly velocity = units_30d / 4.3
   • Target weeks cover = lead_time_weeks + 4 (safety) + 4 (cycle) or override
   • Target units = target weeks * weekly velocity
   • Gap = target units - (current FBA + in-transit)
   • Round gap up to nearest MOQ multiple
5. Sanity-check against cash: PO total = units * cogs_landed. If this plus open PO total exceeds available cash, downgrade the recommendation and flag.
6. Sanity-check against CM3: if cm3_30d < 0.10 and status != launch, refuse to recommend a restock and flag for review.
7. Write a decision draft to wiki/decisions/YYYY-MM-restock-{sku-slug}.md using _templates/decision.md.

Output format

The draft uses the standard decision template, prefilled:

---
type: decision
date: 2026-05-09
title: Restock - Acme Baby Shampoo - 2,000 units
status: proposed
reversibility: medium
owner: Operator
sku: [[acme-baby-shampoo-001]]
supplier: [[shenzhen-soft-goods-co]]
estimated_impact: -$9,640 cash, +12 weeks of stock
follow_up_date: 2026-06-30
tags: [decision, restock]
---

# Restock - Acme Baby Shampoo - 2,000 units

## Context
Weekly velocity 290 units. Days on hand 47. Lead time 38d (5.5 weeks). Without action, OOS in week of 2026-06-21.

## Computation
- Weekly velocity (trailing 30d): 290 units
- Target weeks cover: 13.5 (lead 5.5 + safety 4 + cycle 4)
- Target units on hand: 3,915
- Current FBA + in-transit: 3,200
- Gap: 715
- MOQ: 2,000
- **Recommended order: 2,000 units**
- PO cost: 2,000 x $4.82 = $9,640

## Cash check
- Cash + 30d payouts: $84,000
- Open POs: $48,000
- Available: $36,000
- This PO: $9,640. **OK.**

## Decision (pending sign-off)
Place 2,000-unit PO with Shenzhen Soft Goods Co at FOB $4.10/unit (price tier at MOQ).

## Reversibility
Medium. Once PO is placed and 30% deposit paid, ~$3,000 is at risk if cancelled.

## Follow-up
- Review on: 2026-06-30
- What we're checking: PO arrived on time, defect rate at receipt, days on hand back to >60.

Failure modes

• SKU page missing supplier link: prompt operator to set it.
• Supplier page missing moq or lead_time_days: stop and flag.
• Cash position not available (no monthly-close page found): proceed but flag "cash check skipped, manual review required".
• CM3 below threshold and not in launch: refuse and write the reason to a decision page anyway, so the deliberate non-restock is logged.

What this skill does NOT do

• Send the PO. Always operator sign-off.
• Update the SKU's days_on_hand until the PO is confirmed (that happens on the next /sku-audit).