name

serenity

description

Research workflow for finding high-growth public stocks by mapping major technology or infrastructure trends into overlooked supply-chain bottlenecks. Use when Codex is asked to identify, screen, compare, or write research on potential multi-bagger stocks, AI infrastructure beneficiaries, second- or third-order suppliers, scarce components/materials/equipment, bottleneck arbitrage, watchlists, thesis memos, or due-diligence checklists. Produces evidence-based investment research, not personalized financial advice; current market data, filings, and news must be verified from sources.

Serenity

Overview

Use this skill to turn a broad growth trend into a falsifiable map of physical constraints, supplier candidates, and risk-ranked research outputs. The style is "AI-assisted supply-chain bottleneck research": identify where demand can exceed capacity, then find small or underfollowed public companies with direct leverage to that constraint.

Operating Rules

Treat outputs as research assistance, not personalized financial advice. Do not tell the user to buy, sell, or size a position unless they explicitly request a general framework.
Verify current facts with browsing or primary sources because prices, filings, management, guidance, ownership, and market structure change quickly.
Prefer primary sources: SEC filings, company investor relations, earnings call transcripts, exchange filings, technical docs, customer/supplier announcements, credible industry reports, and regulatory records.
Default to US-listed public equities, a 6-24 month thesis horizon, and high-risk small/mid-cap candidates unless the user gives different constraints.
Flag thin liquidity, dilution, promotional behavior, customer concentration, governance issues, geopolitical exposure, and unclear revenue timing early.
Separate "interesting bottleneck" from "investable public equity." A real constraint is not enough if the listed company has weak exposure, poor balance sheet, or valuation already discounts the thesis.

Workflow

Scope the search.
- Clarify or assume geography, market cap range, liquidity floor, time horizon, excluded sectors, and risk tolerance.
- State assumptions briefly before research.
Build the bottleneck map.
- Start from the demand shock: AI compute, data centers, power grid, semiconductors, robotics, biotech tools, defense, etc.
- Decompose into physical layers: raw materials, substrates, equipment, components, test/inspection, packaging, networking, power, cooling, logistics, software controls, and maintenance.
- For each layer, ask: what has long lead times, few qualified suppliers, hard technical know-how, regulated capacity, customer qualification cycles, or fragile geography?
Find public suppliers.
- Search each bottleneck layer for upstream and midstream suppliers, including small-cap firms, foreign ADRs, equipment vendors, specialty materials, and niche component makers.
- Identify whether exposure is direct, indirect, or speculative. Prefer direct revenue or customer evidence.
Triage candidates.
- Score each candidate on bottleneck purity, scarcity, customer validation, operating leverage, revenue timing, balance-sheet runway, valuation, liquidity, and bear-case severity.
- Keep a candidate only if there is a clear answer to: "What must become scarce, who must buy from this company, and when could it show up in numbers?"
Cross-verify and falsify.
- Look for substitutes, competing capacity, customer dual-sourcing, Chinese/Korean/Taiwanese/Japanese alternatives, delayed capex, cyclicality, insider selling, dilution, and management credibility issues.
- Search for evidence that disproves the thesis before writing the bull case.
Produce the output.
- For discovery tasks, return a ranked watchlist with short theses, evidence, key risks, and next diligence questions.
- For deep dives, return a memo with thesis, supply-chain role, catalyst path, valuation sanity check, bear case, and what evidence would change the view.
- Cite sources and label unverified inferences clearly.

Reference Files

Read references/research-framework.md for detailed scoring rubrics, search prompts, and output templates.

Serenity

Overview

Operating Rules

Treat outputs as research assistance, not personalized financial advice. Do not tell the user to buy, sell, or size a position unless they explicitly request a general framework.

Verify current facts with browsing or primary sources because prices, filings, management, guidance, ownership, and market structure change quickly.

Prefer primary sources: SEC filings, company investor relations, earnings call transcripts, exchange filings, technical docs, customer/supplier announcements, credible industry reports, and regulatory records.

Default to US-listed public equities, a 6-24 month thesis horizon, and high-risk small/mid-cap candidates unless the user gives different constraints.

Flag thin liquidity, dilution, promotional behavior, customer concentration, governance issues, geopolitical exposure, and unclear revenue timing early.

Separate "interesting bottleneck" from "investable public equity." A real constraint is not enough if the listed company has weak exposure, poor balance sheet, or valuation already discounts the thesis.

Workflow

Scope the search.

Clarify or assume geography, market cap range, liquidity floor, time horizon, excluded sectors, and risk tolerance.
State assumptions briefly before research.

Build the bottleneck map.

Start from the demand shock: AI compute, data centers, power grid, semiconductors, robotics, biotech tools, defense, etc.
Decompose into physical layers: raw materials, substrates, equipment, components, test/inspection, packaging, networking, power, cooling, logistics, software controls, and maintenance.
For each layer, ask: what has long lead times, few qualified suppliers, hard technical know-how, regulated capacity, customer qualification cycles, or fragile geography?

Find public suppliers.

Search each bottleneck layer for upstream and midstream suppliers, including small-cap firms, foreign ADRs, equipment vendors, specialty materials, and niche component makers.
Identify whether exposure is direct, indirect, or speculative. Prefer direct revenue or customer evidence.

Triage candidates.

Score each candidate on bottleneck purity, scarcity, customer validation, operating leverage, revenue timing, balance-sheet runway, valuation, liquidity, and bear-case severity.
Keep a candidate only if there is a clear answer to: "What must become scarce, who must buy from this company, and when could it show up in numbers?"

Cross-verify and falsify.

Look for substitutes, competing capacity, customer dual-sourcing, Chinese/Korean/Taiwanese/Japanese alternatives, delayed capex, cyclicality, insider selling, dilution, and management credibility issues.
Search for evidence that disproves the thesis before writing the bull case.

Produce the output.

For discovery tasks, return a ranked watchlist with short theses, evidence, key risks, and next diligence questions.
For deep dives, return a memo with thesis, supply-chain role, catalyst path, valuation sanity check, bear case, and what evidence would change the view.
Cite sources and label unverified inferences clearly.

Reference Files

Read references/research-framework.md for detailed scoring rubrics, search prompts, and output templates.