premortem

name	premortem
description	Prospective failure narratives. Independent agents each write a story from a future where the project failed for a different root cause, synthesized into a risk registry with severity ratings and mitigations.
scope	universal
ported-from	premortem command

Premortem: Prospective Failure Narratives

Spawn N independent agents, each writing a narrative from the future where the project FAILED for a different root cause. No agent sees others' failure stories. A lead agent then synthesizes the narratives into a structured risk registry with severity ratings and mitigations.

Based on Gary Klein's premortem technique: "prospective hindsight", imagining an event has already occurred, increases the ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by ~30%. Starting from "it failed" bypasses the planning fallacy and optimism bias that normally prevent teams from envisioning failure modes.

Arguments

[N] [path/to/design.md | inline description]

• N is the number of failure lenses (default 5, min 3, max 7).
• Input is a design doc, architecture doc, PRD, or project plan, or an inline description. Missing or unclear: ask the user to clarify before starting.

Phase 1: Frame the Project

If a file path is given: read it and extract the key design decisions, architecture, dependencies, and assumptions.

If inline: parse the project description.

Prepare a project brief that includes:

• What is being built
• Key technical decisions
• Dependencies (internal and external)
• Timeline constraints
• Team context (if available)
• Critical assumptions

Present the project brief to the user and confirm before proceeding. Adjust if the user gives feedback.

Phase 2: Spawn Failure Agents

Launch all N agents in parallel using the Agent tool. Each agent gets the same project brief and a unique failure lens: a category of failure they must explore.

Standard Failure Lenses

Select N from the following (always include lenses 1-3, then fill remaining slots in order):

1. Technical Architecture Failure: the core technical approach was wrong (scaling limits, fundamental design flaw, performance cliff, wrong data model)
2. Integration & Dependency Failure: external dependencies failed or changed (API deprecation, library vulnerability, vendor shutdown, incompatible upgrade)
3. Operational Failure: the system works in dev but fails in production (deployment complexity, monitoring gaps, incident response blind spots, data migration corruption)
4. Scope & Requirements Failure: we built the wrong thing (misunderstood requirements, missed stakeholder needs, wrong assumptions about user behavior)
5. Team & Process Failure: the people-side failed (knowledge silos, handoff gaps, testing shortcuts, documentation debt)
6. Security & Compliance Failure: security breach, data leak, regulatory violation, access control gap
7. Scale & Evolution Failure: works at current scale but breaks at 10x (database bottleneck, cost explosion, architectural ceiling)

Each agent MUST:

1. Write a narrative (not a bullet list), a story from 6 months in the future, in past tense, describing how and why the project failed through their lens
2. Be specific: name real components from the project brief, describe the sequence of events
3. Identify the root cause (the earliest decision that, if changed, would have prevented this failure)
4. Identify warning signs that would have been visible early
5. Propose mitigations: concrete changes to the current design that would prevent this failure mode
6. Use subagent_type: "general-purpose" (they may need web search for realistic failure scenarios)
7. NOT be told what other agents are exploring

Agent prompt template (customize the lens per agent):

You are a failure analyst conducting a premortem exercise.

## Project Brief
{project_brief}

## Your Failure Lens: {lens_name}
{lens_description}

## Instructions
It is 6 months from now. This project has FAILED. Your job is to write the postmortem, but you're writing it BEFORE the project starts, not after.

Write a narrative (2-3 paragraphs) describing:
1. What happened, the sequence of events that led to failure
2. The root cause, the earliest decision or assumption that, if changed, would have prevented this
3. Warning signs, signals that were (or would have been) visible early on
4. Mitigations, concrete changes to the current design/plan that would prevent this failure

Be SPECIFIC. Reference actual components, decisions, and dependencies from the project brief. Don't write generic risks, write THIS project's risks.

## Output Format
### Failure Narrative: {lens_name}

**What happened:**
[2-3 paragraph narrative in past tense]

**Root cause:**
[Single sentence identifying the earliest causal decision]

**Warning signs:**
- [Concrete, observable signals]

**Mitigations:**
- [Specific changes to current design/plan]

**Severity:** [Critical / High / Medium / Low]
**Likelihood:** [High / Medium / Low]

Phase 3: Synthesize into Risk Registry

After ALL agents return, produce the following synthesis:

1. Risk Registry Table

| # | Failure Lens | Severity | Likelihood | Risk Score | Root Cause | Top Mitigation | |-|-|||-|||

Risk Score = Severity x Likelihood where Critical=4, High=3, Medium=2, Low=1 for severity and High=3, Medium=2, Low=1 for likelihood. Sort by risk score descending.

2. Cross-Cutting Themes

Where did multiple failure lenses identify the same underlying vulnerability? These are the highest-priority risks. For each theme:

• Which lenses surfaced it
• Why this convergence increases confidence that the risk is real
• The combined severity if this vulnerability is exploited

3. Mitigation Priority List

All mitigations ranked by:

• How many failure modes they address
• The severity of those failure modes
• Implementation cost (Low / Medium / High)

4. Design Modification Recommendations

The top 3-5 concrete changes to the current design that would most reduce overall risk, synthesized from the individual mitigations. For each:

• What to change
• Which failure modes it addresses
• Expected effort

5. Full Failure Narratives

Include all narratives for reference, grouped by lens.

Save the full output to a file premortem_{slugified_topic}.md in the working directory.

Phase 4: Present and Act

Present the risk registry and top recommendations to the user. Ask:

• Do any of these failure modes feel especially likely or especially surprising?
• Should we modify the design based on these findings before proceeding to implementation?
• Would you like to deep-dive on any specific failure mode or mitigation?

Pipeline Position

Sits between /converge and /diverge-prototype as a risk gate:

/converge (decision) -> /premortem (risk check) -> /diverge-prototype (build)

Rules

• Independence is critical: agents must NOT share context. Each failure lens explores independently. Do not include other agents' narratives in any agent's prompt.
• All agents launch in a single parallel batch: use one message with N Agent tool calls.
• Narratives, not bullet lists: the story format triggers deeper causal reasoning than lists. Agents must write prose narratives.
• Specific, not generic: every failure must reference actual components from the project brief. Reject generic risks.
• No optimism: agents are instructed that the project HAS FAILED. They cannot hedge with "but it might work out."
• Preserve all narratives: even unlikely failures contain useful signal. Do not filter or discard any agent's output.
• Attribute findings: always note which lens produced which risk in the synthesis.
• Be honest about confidence: if the risk registry is weak in an area, say so.