| name | event-driven-risk-verification |
| description | Use this skill when the user provides an external event alert or asks about the impact of a specific event on portfolio holdings. Verifies events, calculates direct and indirect exposure through supply chains, and synthesises risk assessments. |
Event-Driven Risk Verification
When to Activate
Trigger when user mentions: event impact on portfolio, supply chain disruption, geopolitical event, natural disaster affecting holdings, regulatory change impact, "what's our exposure to [event]?"
5-Step Workflow
Step 1: Verify Event
Tool: search_internal_docs
Confirm event details: EventType, Region, Severity, AffectedSectors
Step 2: Calculate Direct Exposure
Tool: quantitative_analyzer
Filter by affected region and sectors from Step 1. Get position weights for directly affected securities.
Step 3: Calculate Indirect Exposure (Supply Chain)
Tool: supply_chain_analyzer
Apply multi-hop supply chain analysis:
- Decay: 50% per hop (direct suppliers = 100%, tier-2 = 50%, tier-3 = 25%)
- Max depth: 2 hops
- Display threshold: Only show exposures >= 5% post-decay
- High dependency flag: >= 20% post-decay
- Calculate both upstream (CostShare) and downstream (RevenueShare) impacts
Step 4: Corroborate
Tool: search_external_docs
Search for company statements about supply chain exposure to the event region/sector. Validate or refine indirect exposure estimates.
Step 5: Synthesise Risk Assessment
Present comprehensive assessment:
| Exposure Type | Security | Weight | Dependency | Source |
|---|
| Direct | [Ticker] | X.X% | N/A | Holdings data |
| Indirect (Tier 1) | [Ticker] | X.X% | XX% (supplier) | Supply chain |
| Indirect (Tier 2) | [Ticker] | X.X% | XX% (supplier) | Supply chain |
Total portfolio exposure: [sum direct + adjusted indirect]
Recommendations:
- Immediate: [actions for high-dependency positions]
- Monitor: [positions to watch]
- Research: [areas needing further investigation]
Stopping Points
- After Step 2 (direct exposure calculated): present direct exposure findings before running supply chain analysis
- After Step 4 (corroboration complete): present full risk assessment for review before issuing recommendations
Output
A comprehensive risk assessment with direct exposure, indirect supply chain exposure (with decay), corroborating evidence, and prioritised recommendations.
