reflect-cost

name	reflect:cost
description	Report reflect drain spend over a time window — tokens split by cached (cache_read), uncached writes (cache_creation), and io (input+output), with a $ estimate, grouped by day / outcome / model / transcript. Reads the drainer's cost log and surfaces outlier runs and cache-reuse health (the 41.5M-token failure mode = low cache reuse + high cache writes). Also reports the recall followup rate (the recall-quality self-monitor: how often a session searched again within 30s and got disjoint results). Use to answer "what is reflection costing me" for the last day / week, or "is recall satisfying".
version	4.1.0
user-invocable	true
triggers	["reflect:cost","reflect cost","reflection cost","cost of reflection","reflect spend","how much is reflect costing"]
allowed-tools	["Read","Bash"]

/reflect:cost — Drain spend report

Shows what the reflect background drainer is spending: token volume split into cached (cheap reuse), uncached writes (expensive cache_creation), and io (input+output), plus a ballpark $est, grouped by day, outcome, model, or transcript. This is the observability the 2026-05-31 incident lacked — one drain run burned 41.5M tokens / ~$713 for zero net-new learnings and nothing surfaced it until a manual backfill.

When to Use

• "What did reflection cost me today / this week?"
• Spot an outlier run (a single transcript that blew up the spend).
• Check cache reuse: a healthy drain is cache_read-heavy; a low cache-reuse % with high cache_creation is the costly failure mode.
• Confirm the drain is running on the cheap model (should be sonnet, not opus) after a deploy.

Window argument

Parse the window from the user's request and pass it as --since:

User says	--since
"1 day", "today", "last 24h", (default)	1d
"this week", "last 7 days"	7d
"last hour"	1h
"last month", "30 days"	30d

Default to 1d when unspecified.

Run it

Locate the cost reporter (prefer the running plugin, else the newest cached version), then render. The script is reflect_cost.py, shipped in the reflect plugin's scripts/.

WINDOW="1d"   # ← substitute from the table above

# Resolve reflect_cost.py robustly across deploy layouts.
COST_PY=""
for cand in \
  "${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT:-}/plugin/scripts/reflect_cost.py" \
  $(ls -t "$HOME"/.claude/plugins/cache/*/reflect/*/plugin/scripts/reflect_cost.py "$HOME"/.claude/plugins/cache/*/reflect/*/scripts/reflect_cost.py 2>/dev/null); do
  if [ -n "$cand" ] && [ -f "$cand" ]; then COST_PY="$cand"; break; fi
done
if [ -z "$COST_PY" ]; then
  echo "reflect_cost.py not found — install/update the reflect plugin (v4+):"
  echo "  claude plugin update reflect@ainb-reflect-memory"
  exit 1
fi

# Headline: by outcome (where the spend goes), then model (cheap vs expensive),
# then the top transcripts (find the outlier).
python3 "$COST_PY" --since "$WINDOW" --by outcome
echo
python3 "$COST_PY" --since "$WINDOW" --by model
echo
python3 "$COST_PY" --since "$WINDOW" --by transcript --top 10
echo
# Writer health (M2): each run's output classification — a healthy drain is
# all `valid`; prose/idle/poisoned/malformed rows mean the writer is drifting
# (3 consecutive invalids poison the transcript as writer_drift).
python3 "$COST_PY" --since "$WINDOW" --by writer
echo
# Recall quality (A4): the followup-rate diagnostic. A "followup" = the same
# session searched again within the window (default 30s) with a DIFFERENT
# query and got a fully DISJOINT result set — i.e. the first recall didn't
# satisfy. High rate = tune rerank weights / graph arm budget / OOD threshold.
python3 "$COST_PY" --since "$WINDOW" --followup
echo
# Subscription quota (M3): per-window rate-limit snapshot the drainer ingested
# from its own claude -p runs, plus whether the writer gate is open or closed.
# A CLOSED gate means drains are deferred (reason=quota_near_limit) — queue
# entries are retained and replay automatically once the quota recovers.
python3 "$COST_PY" --quota

For a machine-readable view, add --json.

Reading the followup rate

recall followup rate — last 7d

  searches tracked : 42
  followups        : 6 (re-search within 30s, disjoint results)
  followup rate    : 14%

• searches tracked — session-anchored, non-empty recalls (SessionStart's synthetic boot queries are excluded; empty result sets are knowledge gaps, not followups, and don't count).
• followup rate — the recall-quality self-monitor. Near 0% = first results are landing. Sustained high (>30%) = recall isn't satisfying on the first ask: consider rerank-weight tuning, more graph-arm budget, or a lower OOD threshold. The signal is directional — rapid legitimate topic switches inside 30s overcount.
• Window is tunable via RECALL_FOLLOWUP_WINDOW_SECONDS (default 30).

If tokens show 0 (historical / pre-v4 events)

The drainer only began recording the full token envelope in v4. Older cost events carry only outcome (no tokens/model), so the split shows 0. Reconstruct the real numbers from the raw session logs with the backfill — it scans ~/.claude/projects, finds the reflect runs, and sums their usage into a separate drain-cost-backfill.jsonl (which reflect_cost.py reads alongside the live log):

BACKFILL_PY="$(dirname "$COST_PY")/archive/backfill_costs.py"
python3 "$BACKFILL_PY" --since "$WINDOW" \
  --projects-dir "$HOME/.claude/projects" \
  --state-dir "${REFLECT_STATE_DIR:-$HOME/.reflect}"
# then re-run the reflect_cost.py commands above

Reading the output

outcome                 runs    tokens  cache_rd  cache_wr      io     $est
ok                        48      120M       95M       18M     7.0M   220.40
partial_max_turns          3       40M       30M        8M     2.0M    70.10

• cache_rd (cache_read) — cheap reuse, should dominate.
• cache_wr (cache_creation) — expensive writes; high here means caching is not amortizing (re-paying to rebuild context). The incident was cache_wr-heavy.
• io — input + output tokens.
• $est — authoritative cost_usd from claude -p where recorded, else an order-of-magnitude estimate from token buckets × ballpark list prices. Not a bill.
• ⚠ outlier — any single run above --outlier-tokens (default 5M). One flagged transcript is usually where a spend spike lives.
• The cache-reuse % line at the bottom is the fastest health read: low % + high cache_wr = the 41.5M failure mode.

Then summarize for the user in one or two lines: total tokens, the cached vs uncached split, the model, the $est, and call out any outlier transcript.

Troubleshooting

• "reflect_cost.py not found" — the installed plugin predates v4. Run claude plugin update reflect@ainb-reflect-memory and restart.
• All rows show model ? and 0 tokens — pre-v4 events only; run the backfill above.
• No events at all — the drain hasn't run in the window, or REFLECT_STATE_DIR points elsewhere (ls "${REFLECT_STATE_DIR:-$HOME/.reflect}").