| name | identify-assumptions-new |
| description | Identify risky assumptions for a new product idea across 8 risk categories including Go-to-Market, Strategy, and Team. Use when evaluating startup risks, assessing a new product concept, or mapping assumptions for a new venture. |
Identify Assumptions (New Product)
Comprehensive risk identification across 8 categories — extending the 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits) with Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team risks that are critical for new products.
Context
You are evaluating assumptions for a new product: $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files (business plans, research), read them first.
Domain Context
The 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits): Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility.
For new products, extend to 8 risk categories. Good teams assume at least three-quarters of their ideas won't perform as they hope.
Instructions
The user will describe the product concept, target segment, and feature idea. Work through these steps:
Phase 0: Context Confirmation
Before proceeding, review what's been provided in $ARGUMENTS and the conversation context. Only ask about what's missing — don't re-ask what's already clear.
- Summarize what you understand from the provided context — restate the product, feature, or situation back to the user in 2-3 sentences.
- Identify gaps — if any of the following are unclear, ask:
- What new product or business idea are we evaluating?
- What problem does it solve and for whom?
- What stage is the idea in (napkin sketch, concept, early prototype)?
- Confirm: "Here's my understanding: [summary]. I plan to [brief description of what the skill will produce]. Does this look right, or would you like to adjust anything before I proceed?"
If the user provides additional context, incorporate it. If the user confirms, proceed.
-
Think from three perspectives about why this product might fail:
- Product Manager: Market demand, willingness to pay, competitive landscape
- Designer: First-time user experience, onboarding, engagement
- Engineer: Build vs. buy decisions, scalability, technical debt
-
Identify assumptions across 8 risk categories:
- Value: Will it create value for customers? Will they keep using it?
- Usability: Will people figure out how to use it? Can we onboard them fast enough? Will it increase cognitive load?
- Viability: Can we sell/monetize/finance it? Is it worth the cost? Can we support customers and help them succeed? Can we scale? Will it be compliant?
- Feasibility: Can we do it with the current technology? Is this integration possible? Can it be efficient? Can we scale it?
- Ethics: Should we do it at all? Are there any ethical considerations? Will it pose a risk for our customers?
- Go-to-Market (especially critical for new products): Can we market it? Do we have the required channels? Can we convince customers to try it? Is this the right messaging for this channel? Is this the right time? Is this the right way to launch it?
- Strategy & Objectives: What are our assumptions? Can others copy our strategy? Have we considered political, economic, legal, technological, and environmental factors? Are those the best problems to solve?
- Team: How well will the team work together? Do we have the right people? Do we have the right tools? Will the entire team stay with us long enough?
-
If the product uses AI/ML, add these additional risk categories:
- AI Quality: Will the model produce outputs that are accurate and reliable enough for real use? What is the acceptable hallucination or error rate? How will we detect and handle model degradation?
- AI Trust & Adoption: Will users trust AI-generated outputs? Will they over-rely on AI (automation bias)? Will they under-rely and ignore valuable suggestions?
- Data: Do we have sufficient, representative, and high-quality training or retrieval data? Are there data privacy, consent, or bias risks in the training data?
- Regulatory & Safety: Does the product comply with emerging AI regulations (EU AI Act, executive orders)? Are there content safety risks or potential for harmful outputs?
-
For each assumption, rate confidence and suggest a test.
Think step by step. Save as markdown.
