vn-macro-calendar

name	vn-macro-calendar
description	VN macroeconomic calendar — SBV rate decisions, CPI releases, GDP data, Tết schedule, credit growth targets, and PMI releases. Covers 5-source macro pipeline.
category	analysis

VN Macro Calendar

Economic Data Releases

Regular Schedule

Indicator	Frequency	Source	Lag	Typical Date
CPI	Monthly	GSO (vi.money)	1 month	~20th of month
GDP	Quarterly	GSO	2–3 months	Late Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec
PMI Manufacturing	Monthly	S&P Global	1–2 days	1st business day
PMI Services	Monthly	S&P Global	1–2 days	3rd business day
Industrial Production (IIP)	Monthly	GSO	1 month	~20th of month
Retail Sales	Monthly	GSO	1 month	~20th of month
Trade Balance	Monthly	Customs	10 days	~15th of month
Credit Growth	Monthly	SBV	15 days	~20th of month
FDI	Monthly	MPI	1 month	~25th of month
VNINDEX rebalance	Semi-annual	HOSE	—	June, December
VN30 rebalance	Quarterly	HOSE	—	Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec

SBV Policy Rate Decisions

• Frequency: Ad-hoc (no fixed schedule).
• Current rate: check macro_indicators table with indicator_name = 'SBV_REFI_RATE'.
• Typically changes 1–2 times per year.
• Key rates: Refinancing rate, Discount rate, OMO rate.

Data Sources Pipeline

The 5-source macro pipeline runs daily (step 11 of ETL):

Source	Data	Update
yfinance	Global commodities (oil, steel, rice), USD/VND, VIX, US yields, DXY	Daily
vi.money	Vietnam CPI, IIP, retail sales, trade balance	Monthly
VietFin	GDP, FDI, credit growth, PMI	As released
SBV	Policy rates, interbank rates, OMO	Daily
CafeF	Market news, foreign flow, sector flows	Daily

VN Market Holidays

Fixed Holidays

Date	Holiday
Jan 1	New Year
Apr 30	Reunification Day
May 1	Labour Day
Sep 2	National Day

Lunar Calendar Holidays (Tết — variable)

Holiday	Typical Date	Market Impact
Tết Nguyên Đán	Late Jan–Feb	5–7 day closure
Tết Nguyên Tiêu	Feb–Mar	No closure
Giỗ Tổ Hùng Vương	April 10	1 day closure
Tết Đoan Ngọ	June	No closure
Trung Thu	Sep–Oct	No closure

Tết closure is typically 5–7 trading days. The market shows a consistent pattern:

• 2–3 weeks before Tết: bullish (institutional window dressing, personal bonuses)
• 1 week before closure: cautious (margin reduction)
• 1–2 weeks after Tết: mixed (retail returning, new year positioning)
• Tết hypothesis: long 3 weeks before, exit before closure.

Macro Data Queries

# Get latest macro indicators
import psycopg2
conn = psycopg2.connect("postgresql://postgres:123@localhost:5432/aiinvest")
cur = conn.cursor()
cur.execute("""
    SELECT indicator_date, indicator_name, value, unit
    FROM macro_indicators
    ORDER BY indicator_date DESC
    LIMIT 20
""")

# Check if today is a trading day
from app.services.daily_etl import is_trading_day
is_open = is_trading_day()  # Returns True/False

Key Macro Relationships for VN Equities

Macro Signal	Equity Impact	Typical Lead
SBV rate cut	+Real Estate, +Banks	1–3 months
SBV rate hike	−Real Estate, +Cash	Immediate
CPI > 4%	−Market (SBV may tighten)	1 month
PMI > 50 + rising	+Industrials, +Materials	1–2 months
Credit growth > 14%	+Banks	3 months
DXY falling	+VNINDEX (foreign inflow)	1–2 weeks
Oil price shock	+Oil & Gas, −Airlines	1–2 weeks

Related Skills

• vn-trading-rules: Market rules affected by calendar and macro events.
• vn-sector-analysis: Sector-specific macro sensitivity.