| name | forecast-builder |
| description | Generates 13-month rolling forecast with three scenarios (best-case, commit, upside). Tracks variance trending, inputs historical conversion rates, and surfaces confidence gaps. |
| allowed-tools | Read, Write |
| effort | high |
When to activate
Weekly before leadership sync, or monthly for board updates. Requires current pipeline snapshot and historical close rates by stage and rep.
When NOT to use
Not for annual strategic planning (use annual budget process). Not for individual deal coaching. Not without pipeline data refresh within 24 hours.
Forecast Methodology
Three Scenarios:
- Commit (60% confidence): Conservative forecast; deals with >50% probability only. Sum = expected close value.
- Best-Case (90% confidence): All deals >30% probability. Upper bound for upside.
- Upside: Everything >10% probability. Stretch scenario for best execution.
Formula per scenario:
- For each open deal: estimated value × close probability (by scenario threshold) = weighted value
- Sum across all deals by stage and rep
- Compare to monthly target; calculate variance
Trending:
- Compare current forecast vs. prior week (velocity)
- Compare vs. YTD forecast (accuracy)
- Calculate variance %: (Commit forecast - Prior month actual close) / Prior month actual × 100
Output Format
# 13-Month Rolling Forecast — {Date}
**Data Refresh:** {Timestamp}
**Confidence Level:** {High / Medium / Low} based on pipeline age
---
## Forecast Summary (13 Months)
| Month | Commit | Best-Case | Upside | Target | Var % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | ${} | ${} | ${} | ${} | {%} |
| ...
| **Total** | **${}** | **${}** | **${}** | **${}** | **{%}** |
---
## Month-by-Month Commit Breakdown (Next 3 Months)
| Stage | Count | Value | Prob | Weighted | % of Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negotiation | {N} | ${} | {%} | ${} | {%} |
| Proposal | {N} | ${} | {%} | ${} | {%} |
| Qualification | {N} | ${} | {%} | ${} | {%} |
| **Total** | **{N}** | **${}** | — | **${}** | **100%** |
---
## Rep-by-Rep Forecast (Month 1)
| Rep | Commit | Target | Var % | Status | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| {Name} | ${} | ${} | {%} | {Green/Yellow/Red} | {Note if trending miss} |
---
## Variance Trending
| Period | Forecast | Actual | Variance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month -1 | ${} | ${} | {%} | {Green/Yellow/Red} |
| Month -2 | ${} | ${} | {%} | {Green/Yellow/Red} |
---
## Confidence Assessment
**High-confidence deals** (>75% probability): ${} ({%} of forecast)
**Medium-confidence deals** (50–75% probability): ${} ({%} of forecast)
**Low-confidence deals** (<50% probability): ${} ({%} of forecast)
**Risk:** {X} deals heavily dependent on single stakeholder or competitive threat.
---
## Recommended Actions
- {Action if variance >10%}
- {Action if low-confidence concentration >40%}
Example
13-Month Rolling Forecast — 2026-06-10
Data Refresh: 2026-06-10 09:00 UTC
Confidence Level: Medium (73% of forecast is >50% probability)
Forecast Summary (13 Months)
| Month | Commit | Best-Case | Upside | Target | Var % |
|---|
| Jun | $920K | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.1M | -16% |
| Jul | $1.05M | $1.25M | $1.4M | $1.1M | -5% |
| Aug | $980K | $1.15M | $1.35M | $1.1M | -11% |
| Sep | $1.12M | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.1M | +2% |
| Q3 Total | $4.07M | $4.8M | $5.55M | $3.3M | +23% |
Month-by-Month Commit Breakdown (June)
| Stage | Count | Value | Prob | Weighted | % of Close |
|---|
| Negotiation | 8 | $600K | 72% | $432K | 47% |
| Proposal | 16 | $1.1M | 41% | $451K | 49% |
| Qualification | 22 | $900K | 8% | $72K | 8% |
| Total | 46 | $2.6M | — | $955K | 100% |
Rep-by-Rep Forecast (June)
| Rep | Commit | Target | Var % | Status | Risk |
|---|
| Sarah Chen | $320K | $366K | -12% | Yellow | Dependent on 2 large deals (>$100K) |
| James Rodriguez | $185K | $183K | +1% | Green | On track |
| Maria Garcia | $220K | $183K | +20% | Green | Strong Negotiation pipeline |
| David Kim | $195K | $183K | +7% | Green | On track |
Variance Trending
| Period | Forecast | Actual | Variance | Status |
|---|
| May | $1.08M | $1.05M | -3% | Green |
| Apr | $1.05M | $980K | -7% | Yellow |
| Mar | $1.2M | $1.15M | -4% | Green |
Trend: Commit forecast trending conservative (actual beating forecast by 3–7%). Confidence increasing.
Confidence Assessment
High-confidence deals (>75% probability): $580K (60% of forecast)
Medium-confidence deals (50–75% probability): $280K (30% of forecast)
Low-confidence deals (<50% probability): $95K (10% of forecast)
Risk: Two large deals (OPP-2847 Acme, OPP-2903 TechFlow) represent $320K (35% of month close). Delay impacts variance >15%.
Recommended Actions
- Monitor Acme deal closely; schedule stakeholder check-in by June 13 to confirm close date
- TechFlow decision timeline slipping; obtain written commitment on close date or move to July forecast
- Sales team showing strong execution (actual beat forecast); maintain coaching on Qualification stage conversion
