| name | dengxiaofeng-cycle-industry |
| description | Use when evaluating stocks through Deng Xiaofeng's cycle-and-industry lens: deep industry research, cycle position awareness, supply-demand dynamics, and buying leaders at cycle bottoms. |
| invest | ./invest.md |
Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry
Use this skill to apply Deng Xiaofeng / 邓晓峰-style judgment.
When To Use
Use this skill when the user asks for:
- cycle industry analysis
- whether an industry is at cycle bottom or top
- deep industry research thesis
- Deng Xiaofeng-style value with cycle awareness
Trigger phrases include 邓晓峰, Deng Xiaofeng, cycle industry, 行业周期, supply demand cycle, 周期底部.
Do Not Use When
- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.
Inputs Needed
- Asset, sector, market, or macro context
- Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested
Process
- Map the industry cycle: bottom, recovery, peak, downturn.
- Analyze supply-demand dynamics and capacity additions.
- Identify the industry leader with cost/scale advantage.
- Buy at cycle bottom when price reflects pessimism; reduce at cycle top.
Output Format
# Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry View: [Subject]
## Verdict
Buy Cycle Bottom / Watch / Cycle Still Falling / At Cycle Top / Pass
## Thesis
## Evidence
## Risks
## Action Plan
## Invalidation
## Missing Data
Guardrails
- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.
Questflow Use
Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.
