deductive-hypothesis-generation

name	deductive-hypothesis-generation
description	Strategy: deduce hypotheses from existing theory
version	1.0.0
category	hypothesis-formation
type	strategy
campaign	hypothesis-formulation
tactics	["theory-mechanism-extraction","falsifiability-audit"]
sops	["theory-identification","mechanism-extraction","variable-identification","relationship-specification","boundary-condition-specification","falsifiability-check","operationalization"]
dependencies	{"tactics":["falsifiability-audit","theory-mechanism-extraction"]}

Deductive Hypothesis Generation

Deduce hypotheses from existing theory: in domains with mature theory, transform theoretical propositions into specific testable predictions through an explicit reasoning chain.

When to Use

• The domain has mature foundational theory (named theories, formal models, or accepted mechanisms)
• The research gap manifests as "a discrepancy between theoretical prediction and real-world observation"
• The goal is to test, extend, or delimit the scope of an existing theory
• Highly defensible hypotheses are needed (reviewers will press for theoretical justification)

Not applicable: emerging domains rich in data but lacking theory → use inductive-hypothesis-generation instead.

Thinking Framework

Theory → Mechanism → Variable Relationship → Testable Prediction

The core logic of deduction:

1. Theory: identify the foundational theory underpinning the research question (named theory, formal model)
2. Mechanism: extract the causal mechanism from the theory (the intermediate process by which "X affects Y through Z")
3. Variable Relationship: translate the mechanism into directional relationships among variables (positive/negative/moderating/mediating)
4. Testable Prediction: concretize the variable relationship into an observable prediction under specific conditions

Every step must be traceable: each prediction traces back to a mechanism, each mechanism traces back to a theory. This is what distinguishes a deductive hypothesis from a guess.

Common pitfalls:

• Theory citation that stays superficial (naming only, no specific propositions) → you must cite the theory's core propositions
• Skipping the mechanism and jumping straight from theory to prediction → the mechanism is the key node of the deductive chain and cannot be omitted
• Hypothesis scope too broad ("in all contexts") → deduction must state boundary conditions

Budget Gate

Tier	Theory coverage	Mechanism extraction	Hypothesis output	Falsifiability
S	≥2 named theories	≥3 causal mechanisms	≥2 structured hypotheses	1 falsification scenario per hypothesis
M	≥3 named theories	≥5 causal mechanisms	≥3 structured hypotheses	≥1 scenario + boundary conditions per hypothesis