failure-chain-tracing

name	failure-chain-tracing
description	Tactic: Trace upstream causes and downstream effects of each failure mode. Builds multi-level cause-mode-effect chains for systemic understanding.
type	tactic
strategies	["prospective-hindsight","design-fmea","process-fmea"]
dependencies	{"sops":["failure-chain-construction","severity-scoring"]}

Failure Chain Tracing Tactic

Trace each failure mode both upstream (root causes) and downstream (cascading effects) to build complete causal chains.

Orchestration

1. Start from identified failure mode
2. failure-chain-construction traces upstream:
   • Why could this mode occur? (immediate cause)
   • Why could that cause occur? (root cause)
   • Repeat to budget depth (2/4/6 levels)
3. failure-chain-construction traces downstream:
   • What effect does this mode produce? (local effect)
   • What does that effect cause? (system-level effect)
   • What is the end impact? (customer/stakeholder effect)
4. Chain validated for logical consistency
5. Shared causes across multiple modes flagged as systemic risks

Depth Control

• Budget S: 2 levels (immediate cause → mode → local effect)
• Budget M: 4 levels (root cause → ... → system effect)
• Budget L: 6 levels (full chain with environmental factors)

Subagents Dispatched

• failure-chain-construction (upstream and downstream tracing)
• severity-scoring (end-effect severity assessment)

Termination Conditions

• Chain depth exhausted per budget
• Root cause reached (no further upstream cause identifiable)
• End effect reached (stakeholder-level impact identified)
• Circular dependency detected (flag and stop)

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
failure-chain-construction	Build cause-mode-effect chains tracing upstream root causes and downstream cascading effects for each failure mode.
severity-scoring	Rate failure mode severity 1-10 based on end-effect impact. Follows AIAG-VDA severity scale calibrated for research artifacts.