hypothesis-formulation

name	hypothesis-formulation
description	Campaign: transform insights and gaps into structured testable hypotheses
version	1.0.0
category	hypothesis-formation
type	campaign
input	Ranked gaps + insights + tensions (from gap-prioritization or an upstream repo)
output	Structured hypothesis set + falsifiability criteria + boundary conditions
strategies	["deductive-hypothesis-generation","inductive-hypothesis-generation","abductive-hypothesis-generation","competing-hypothesis-construction","hypothesis-operationalization"]
tactics	["theory-mechanism-extraction","anomaly-driven-abduction","falsifiability-audit","competing-hypothesis-matrix"]
dependencies	{"campaigns":["research-question"],"strategies":["abductive-hypothesis-generation","competing-hypothesis-construction","deductive-hypothesis-generation","hypothesis-operationalization","inductive-hypothesis-generation"],"sops":["context-checkpoint","context-init","hypothesis-formation-quality-gate-check","hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection","hypothesis-synthesis"]}

Hypothesis Formulation

Transform insights and gaps into structured testable hypotheses — answering "how do we turn an insight into a testable hypothesis?"

HARD-GATE

Preconditions (all must hold before starting): 1. At least 1 clear research gap or insight has been identified 2. The gap/insight has sufficient context (domain, existing theory, observed phenomenon) 3. The research intent is clear (knowing what is to be explained or predicted)

Not met → stop, recommend completing gap-prioritization or upstream work first.

Campaign Goal

Transform a vague "there's a gap here" or "this phenomenon is interesting" into a precise, falsifiable hypothesis with boundary conditions. The output is not a "solution" but a "testable proposition."

Strategy Selection

Strategy	When to Use	Reasoning direction
deductive-hypothesis-generation	The domain has mature theory, and the gap is a deviation between theoretical prediction and reality	Theory → prediction
inductive-hypothesis-generation	The domain lacks theory but has abundant empirical observations or data patterns	Data → regularity
abductive-hypothesis-generation	An anomalous phenomenon that existing theory cannot explain has been observed	Anomaly → best explanation
competing-hypothesis-construction	Need to maintain openness and avoid confirmation bias	Multiple explanations in parallel
hypothesis-operationalization	A directional hypothesis exists and needs to be formalized into a testable form	Vague → precise

CC selects autonomously based on input characteristics (whether there is theoretical support, whether there is anomalous data, hypothesis maturity). Can be combined serially.

Budget Gate

Tier	Hypothesis yield	Theory/mechanism	Falsifiability	Competing hypotheses
S	≥2 structured hypotheses	≥2 relevant theories	1 falsification scenario per hypothesis	Optional
M	≥3 structured hypotheses	≥3 theories + ≥5 mechanisms	≥1 scenario + boundary conditions per hypothesis	≥2 competing hypotheses
L	≥5 structured hypotheses