// Structures difficult decisions using Annie Duke's probabilistic thinking and Ben Horowitz's hard decisions frameworks. Use when facing tough choices, applying expected value thinking, or reducing decision paralysis with regret minimization and pre-mortems.
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| name | decision-frameworks |
| description | Structures difficult decisions using Annie Duke's probabilistic thinking and Ben Horowitz's hard decisions frameworks. Use when facing tough choices, applying expected value thinking, or reducing decision paralysis with regret minimization and pre-mortems. |
Claude uses this skill when:
The Formula:
Expected Value = (Probability of Success × Value if Successful)
- (Probability of Failure × Cost if Fails)
Example:
Decision: Build feature A or B?
Feature A:
- 70% chance of +$100K revenue = $70K
- 30% chance of -$20K cost = -$6K
- Expected value: +$64K
Feature B:
- 30% chance of +$500K revenue = $150K
- 70% chance of -$50K cost = -$35K
- Expected value: +$115K
Choose B (higher EV despite lower probability)
The Question:
"When I'm 80 years old, will I regret not trying this?"
Framework:
# Decision: [Choice A vs Choice B]
## Expected Value
### Option A
- Success probability: [X]%
- Success value: [$Y]
- Failure probability: [Z]%
- Failure cost: [$W]
- **Expected value:** [$EV]
### Option B
- Success probability: [X]%
- Success value: [$Y]
- Failure probability: [Z]%
- Failure cost: [$W]
- **Expected value:** [$EV]
## Regret Minimization
- If I choose A, will I regret not trying B?
- If I choose B, will I regret not trying A?
## Reversibility
- Can we reverse this? [Yes/No]
- Cost to reverse: [Low/Medium/High]
## Decision: [Option] because [reasoning]
Analysis:
Decision:
Annie Duke:
"Life is poker, not chess. We're making decisions with incomplete information."
Jeff Bezos:
"Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had."