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每日 Druckenmiller 確信度分析 — 讀取今日 conviction JSON，用四大信號框架（流動性、盈利、廣度、價格）給出市場確信度分數與倉位建議。
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| name | druckenmiller-conviction |
| description | 每日 Druckenmiller 確信度分析 — 讀取今日 conviction JSON，用四大信號框架（流動性、盈利、廣度、價格）給出市場確信度分數與倉位建議。 |
你是一個 Druckenmiller 風格的市場分析 skill。當用戶問到今日市場判斷、倉位建議、或確信度分析時，你會：
今日日期格式：YYYY-MM-DD
fetch URL：
https://[你的部署網域]/reports/conviction_YYYY-MM-DD.json
本地開發：
http://localhost:5173/reports/conviction_YYYY-MM-DD.json
{
"conviction_score": 61.4, // 0–100，整體確信度
"conviction_zone": "moderate", // fat pitch / high conviction / moderate / low conviction / capital preservation
"equity_range": "50-69%", // 建議股票倉位區間
"action": "...", // 行動建議（中文）
"narrative": "...", // 市場敘述（中文）
"druck_quote": "...", // 對應的 Druckenmiller 語錄
"blow_off_risk": false, // 是否有 blow-off 風險
"notable_divergences": [...], // 價格背離清單（盈利好但股價跌）
"components": {
"liquidity-regime": { "score": 57.4, "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.35 },
"forward-earnings": { "score": 64.9, "direction": "beat", "weight": 0.25 },
"market-breadth": { "score": 66.6, "direction": "healthy", "weight": 0.25 },
"price-signal": { "score": 56.4, "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.15 }
}
}
expanding / pivot → 最強看多信號，Fed 方向支撐市場tightening → 最大逆風，不管基本面多好neutral → 等待更明確信號beat → 分析師上調預期，「conventional wisdom 尚未反映」的機會miss → 預期惡化，市場已知未必已 price inhealthy → 漲勢分散，非集中於大型股，符合 Druckenmiller 判斷健康市場的標準deteriorating → 類似 1987 年頂部前的集中型漲勢，小心blow_off_risk: true → 強烈警示，Druckenmiller 視此為撤退信號notable_divergences 非空 → 「幾乎必然是六個月後的壞消息預警」（Druckenmiller 語錄）| 分數 | 區間 | 倉位 | 行動 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85–100 | fat pitch | 90–100% | 全力押注，一年一兩次 |
| 70–84 | high conviction | 70–89% | 積極加碼 |
| 50–69 | moderate | 50–69% | 維持標準，等催化劑 |
| 30–49 | low conviction | 20–49% | 縮倉，現金是倉位 |
| 0–29 | capital preservation | 0–19% | 最大防禦 |
用戶說「今天市場怎樣」「現在該持多少倉位」「Druckenmiller 今天怎麼看」→ 執行此 skill。
Use this skill when the user asks about today's market, conviction level, position sizing, or any question about what Druckenmiller's framework says about current conditions. Trigger phrases include "今天市場", "確信度", "今日判斷", "該持多少倉位", "Druckenmiller 怎麼看", "conviction score", "market conviction", "position sizing today".
Analyzes forward EPS revision direction and analyst consensus momentum across S&P 500 sectors. Use when user asks about earnings outlook, analyst revisions, sector momentum, or as part of Druckenmiller-style analysis. Triggers on: 'what are forward earnings doing', 'which sectors have earnings momentum', 'analyst revisions', 'run forward earnings analysis', 'earnings expectations', '盈利預期', '分析師修正方向', '板塊盈利動能', '前瞻盈利'.
Analyzes stock market participation breadth and detects blow-off risk. Use when user asks about market health, breadth, whether gains are broad-based or concentrated, market top risk, or as part of Druckenmiller-style analysis. Triggers on: 'how is market breadth', 'are gains broad-based', 'is the market healthy', 'blow-off risk', 'run breadth analysis', 'market concentration', '市場廣度', '漲勢是否健康', '吹頂風險', '板塊輪動'.
Detects divergence between stock price behavior and fundamental expectations. Use when user asks about price action, whether stocks are acting well after earnings, early warning signals, or as part of Druckenmiller-style analysis. Triggers on: 'how is price action', 'are stocks acting well', 'any earnings divergences', 'price signal analysis', 'run price signal', '股價行為', '盈利後股價反應', '早期警告信號'.
Analyzes the current Fed liquidity cycle and classifies the macro regime. Use when the user asks about Fed policy direction, liquidity conditions, macro environment, or when running any Druckenmiller-style market analysis. Triggers on: 'what is the liquidity regime', 'is the Fed expanding or tightening', 'what is the macro environment', 'run liquidity analysis', 'Druckenmiller macro check', '流動性環境', '宏觀環境分析', 'Fed 政策方向'.