red-blue-validator

name	red-blue-validator
version	2.0
description	Iterative adversarial stress-testing through Red/Blue team dynamics. Red Team generates substantive, steel-manned attacks against propositions; Blue Team responds with defenses, mitigations, and hardening. Cycles continue until convergence criteria are met, producing a battle-tested proposition. PROACTIVELY activate for: (1) High-stakes decisions requiring stress-testing, (2) Strategy validation before major commitment, (3) Architecture decision hardening, (4) Proposal defense preparation, (5) Security posture review, (6) Investment due diligence with adversarial lens. Triggers: "red team this", "blue team", "stress test", "attack this plan", "find weaknesses", "adversarial review", "devil's advocate", "what could go wrong", "poke holes in this", "challenge this decision", "war game this"

Red/Blue Team Validator

"Find weaknesses before reality does."

Every proposition—whether a decision, strategy, architecture, or plan—has vulnerabilities. This skill systematically exposes them through iterative adversarial cycles. Red Team attacks with substantive, steel-manned challenges. Blue Team defends with mitigations and hardening. The cycle continues until convergence: a battle-tested proposition with documented defenses.

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1. Purpose

Core Value Proposition

Static analysis misses what adversarial pressure reveals. Red/Blue validation simulates the attacks your proposition will face—from competitors, critics, reality itself—and forces you to build defenses before you need them. The output is not just a risk list, but a hardened proposition that has survived systematic assault.

Capabilities

#	Capability	Phase	Value
1	Proposition intake with attack surface mapping	Pre-Round	Define what can be attacked
2	Experience pool loading (domain failure patterns)	Pre-Round	Avoid reinventing known failures
3	Multi-category attack generation	Round N: Red	Surface vulnerabilities systematically
4	Steel-manning attacks to maximum strength	Round N: Red	Ensure attacks are not strawmen
5	Severity scoring (CRITICAL/HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW)	Round N: Red	Prioritize responses
6	Defense generation (REFUTE/MITIGATE/ACCEPT/HARDEN)	Round N: Blue	Address each attack
7	Proposition hardening through iterative refinement	Round N: Blue	Strengthen against attacks
8	Convergence evaluation with explicit criteria	Round N: Eval	Know when to stop
9	RISK-ASSESSMENT synthesis (CONTRACT-08)	Post-Round	Standardized output
10	Hardened proposition generation	Post-Round	Battle-tested version
11	Attack/defense log compilation	Post-Round	Audit trail
12	Go/no-go recommendation	Post-Round	Decision support

---

2. When to Use

Ideal Use Cases

Scenario	Why Red/Blue Validation Matters
Pre-commitment decision review	Simulate objections before committing resources
Strategy validation	War-game competitive responses and market realities
Architecture decision hardening	Stress-test technical choices before implementation
Proposal defense preparation	Anticipate and prepare for stakeholder pushback
Investment due diligence	Adversarial review of financial projections and market assumptions
Security posture assessment	Systematic attack surface enumeration
Go/no-go decisions	High-stakes decisions need adversarial pressure
Policy/process validation	Find edge cases and failure modes
Product launch readiness	Anticipate market, competitive, and operational challenges
M&A target evaluation	Adversarial review of synergy claims

Anti-Patterns (When NOT to Use)

Anti-Pattern	Why It's Ineffective	Better Alternative
Low-stakes decisions	Over-engineering for trivial choices	Just decide and iterate
Time-critical emergencies	Fires need extinguishing, not philosophy	Act, then debrief
Already committed	Adversarial review after commitment creates conflict	Use for future decisions
Early exploration	Premature to attack ideas still forming	Use after initial validation
Confirmation theater	Going through motions without genuine adversarial intent	Either commit to true adversarial thinking or skip
Reversible decisions	Two-way doors don't need siege testing	Save intensity for one-way doors

---

3. Parameters

Parameter	Type	Required	Default	Description
subject_type	enum	yes	—	decision | strategy | architecture | plan | policy | investment | security
max_rounds	integer	no	3	Maximum red/blue cycles (1-5)
attack_intensity	enum	no	standard	light | standard | aggressive
attack_categories	list	no	auto	Categories to probe (see catalog); auto selects by subject_type
convergence_mode	enum	no	no_new_critical	no_new_critical | all_addressed | round_limit
include_experience_pool	boolean	no	true	Load domain-specific failure patterns
steel_manning_level	enum	no	standard	minimal | standard | maximum
output_mode	enum	no	full	risk_assessment | hardened_proposition | full_log

Parameter Effects Matrix

Parameter	Red Phase Effect	Blue Phase Effect	Convergence Effect
attack_intensity: light	Top 3 attack categories	Quick defenses	max_rounds capped at 2
attack_intensity: standard	Top 5 attack categories	Full defense protocol	Normal convergence
attack_intensity: aggressive	All applicable categories	Exhaustive defense	Requires no_new_critical
steel_manning_level: minimal	1-pass attacks	—	Faster rounds
steel_manning_level: standard	2-pass steel-manning	—	Normal rounds
steel_manning_level: maximum	3-pass with ideological Turing test	—	Thorough rounds
convergence_mode: no_new_critical	—	—	Stop when 0 new CRITICAL/HIGH
convergence_mode: all_addressed	—	Must address all	Stop when no ACCEPT responses
convergence_mode: round_limit	—	—	Stop at max_rounds

Auto-Selected Attack Categories by Subject Type

Subject Type	Default Attack Categories
decision	ASSUMPTIONS, ALTERNATIVES, REVERSIBILITY, CONSEQUENCES, TIMING
strategy	COMPETITIVE, MARKET, EXECUTION, DEPENDENCIES, TIMELINE
architecture	SCALABILITY, SECURITY, DEPENDENCIES, OPERATIONAL, EDGE_CASES
plan	FEASIBILITY, RESOURCES, TIMELINE, DEPENDENCIES, RISKS
policy	EDGE_CASES, ENFORCEMENT, UNINTENDED_CONSEQUENCES, POLITICAL
investment	ECONOMIC, MARKET, EXECUTION, COMPETITIVE, ASSUMPTIONS
security	ATTACK_SURFACE, VULNERABILITIES, DEPENDENCIES, OPERATIONAL

---

4. Checkpoints

This skill uses interactive checkpoints (see references/checkpoints.yaml) to resolve ambiguity:

• subject_type_classification — When proposition type is ambiguous
• attack_intensity_selection — When attack intensity not specified
• convergence_mode_selection — When convergence criteria not specified
• premature_convergence_check — When convergence met but warning signs present
• infinite_loop_risk — When defenses generate more attacks than they resolve
• output_mode_selection — When output format not specified

---

5. Iterative Workflow

Workflow Overview

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                       RED/BLUE TEAM VALIDATOR                               │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                              │
│  ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗   │
│  ║                      PRE-ROUND SETUP                                  ║   │
│  ║  ┌─────────────┐  ┌─────────────┐  ┌─────────────┐                   ║   │
│  ║  │ Proposition │  │   Attack    │  │ Experience  │                   ║   │
│  ║  │   Intake    │─▶│  Surface    │─▶│    Pool     │                   ║   │
│  ║  │             │  │  Mapping    │  │   Loading   │                   ║   │
│  ║  └─────────────┘  └─────────────┘  └─────────────┘                   ║   │
│  ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝   │
│                                  │                                           │
│                                  ▼                                           │
│  ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗   │
│  ║                         ROUND N                                       ║   │
│  ║  ┌─────────────┐                    ┌─────────────┐                  ║   │
│  ║  │  RED TEAM   │                    │  BLUE TEAM  │                  ║   │
│  ║  │   ATTACK    │───── Attacks ─────▶│   DEFENSE   │                  ║   │
│  ║  │ (Generate & │                    │ (Respond &  │                  ║   │
│  ║  │ Steel-man)  │                    │  Harden)    │                  ║   │
│  ║  └─────────────┘                    └─────────────┘                  ║   │
│  ║         │                                  │                          ║   │
│  ║         └────────────┬─────────────────────┘                          ║   │
│  ║                      ▼                                                ║   │
│  ║              ┌─────────────┐                                          ║   │
│  ║              │ EVALUATION  │                                          ║   │
│  ║              │ & Converge? │                                          ║   │
│  ║              └─────────────┘                                          ║   │
│  ║                      │                                                ║   │
│  ║           ┌──────────┴──────────┐                                     ║   │
│  ║           ▼                     ▼                                     ║   │
│  ║    [NOT CONVERGED]        [CONVERGED]                                 ║   │
│  ║    → Round N+1            → Exit loop                                 ║   │
│  ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝   │
│                                  │                                           │
│                                  ▼                                           │
│  ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗   │
│  ║                     POST-ROUND SYNTHESIS                              ║   │
│  ║  ┌─────────────┐  ┌─────────────┐  ┌─────────────┐                   ║   │
│  ║  │    RISK     │  │  Hardened   │  │  Attack/    │                   ║   │
│  ║  │ ASSESSMENT  │  │Proposition  │  │ Defense Log │                   ║   │
│  ║  │(CONTRACT-08)│  │  Output     │  │             │                   ║   │
│  ║  └─────────────┘  └─────────────┘  └─────────────┘                   ║   │
│  ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝   │
│                                                                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

---

Pre-Round Setup

Purpose: Prepare the battlefield—understand what's being tested and load relevant knowledge.

Steps:

1. Proposition Intake

   • Receive subject (decision, strategy, architecture, plan, etc.)
   • If verbal, request written summary or create one together
   • Extract key claims and assertions to be defended
   • Identify stakeholders and constraints
   • Note: Proposition should be specific enough to attack

2. Attack Surface Mapping

   • Identify dimensions available for attack (from attack-vector-catalog)
   • Map proposition claims to attackable surfaces
   • Select attack categories based on subject_type or explicit attack_categories
   • See: references/attack-vector-catalog.md for categories

3. Experience Pool Loading (if include_experience_pool: true)

   • Load domain-specific failure patterns
   • Reference historical failures in similar contexts
   • Prepare anti-patterns to probe
   • See: references/experience-pool-patterns.md for patterns

4. Set Parameters

   • Confirm attack intensity, convergence mode, steel-manning level
   • Estimate expected rounds based on complexity

   CHECKPOINT: subject_type_classification

   • If subject_type not specified or ambiguous: AskUserQuestion
   • Present subject type options with attack category implications

   CHECKPOINT: attack_intensity_selection

   • If attack_intensity not specified: AskUserQuestion
   • Present intensity options with effort implications

   CHECKPOINT: convergence_mode_selection

   • If convergence_mode not specified: AskUserQuestion
   • Present convergence options with trade-offs

Quality Gate: Attack Surface Mapped

• Proposition boundaries explicitly defined
• Attack categories selected (minimum 3)
• Experience pool loaded (if enabled)
• Parameters confirmed

Output: Attack-ready proposition with mapped attack surface

---

Round N: Red Team Phase

Purpose: Generate substantive, steel-manned attacks on the proposition.

Reference: See references/red-team-techniques.md and references/steel-manning-protocol.md.

Steps:

1. Attack Generation

   For each attack category in scope, generate attacks:

   Technique	When to Use	Expected Yield
   Pre-mortem	Always	3-5 attacks
   Inversion	Strategy, Decision	2-4 attacks
   Competitor Simulation	Strategy, Investment	2-3 attacks
   Stress Test Amplification	Architecture, Plan	2-4 attacks
   Devil's Advocate	Policy, Decision	2-3 attacks
   Blind Spot Hunter	All	1-3 attacks
   Historical Pattern Matching	All (with experience pool)	2-4 attacks
   Black Hat Thinking	Security, Competitive	3-5 attacks

   • See: references/red-team-techniques.md for protocols

2. Steel-Manning (per steel_manning_level)

   For each attack, strengthen to maximum potency:

   Level	Passes	Protocol
   minimal	1	Basic attack formulation
   standard	2	+ "How can this be more damaging?"
   maximum	3	+ Ideological Turing test: "Would a true opponent accept this?"

   Steel-manning checklist:

   • Attack is specific, not vague

   • Attack has clear mechanism of harm

   • Attack includes realistic trigger conditions

   • Attack would concern a reasonable proponent

   • Attack is not easily dismissed

   • See: references/steel-manning-protocol.md for full protocol

3. Severity Scoring

   Score each attack using SEVERITY-SCORING (RUBRIC-07):

   Severity	Definition	Response Urgency
   CRITICAL	Blocks primary objective; cannot proceed	Must address in Blue Phase
   HIGH	Significant impact; major rework required	Should address in Blue Phase
   MEDIUM	Degrades quality; should fix but can proceed	Address if time permits
   LOW	Minor issue; cosmetic	Document and monitor

   Scoring dimensions:

   • Impact (0.5 weight): How damaging if attack succeeds?
   • Likelihood (0.3 weight): How likely is this attack vector?
   • Detectability (0.2 weight): How hard to see this coming?

4. Attack Documentation

   For each attack:

   Attack ID: ATK-[round]-[number]
   Category: [From attack-vector-catalog]
   Target: [What aspect of proposition]
   Statement: [Clear attack formulation]
   Mechanism: [How this would cause harm]
   Severity: [CRITICAL | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW]
   Steel-manning: [minimal | standard | maximum] - [notes]
   Experience pool match: [Pattern ID if applicable]
   

Quality Gate: Attacks Substantive

• Minimum 3 attacks generated
• At least 2 different attack categories represented
• Steel-manning applied per level
• No trivial or easily dismissed attacks
• Severities assigned with rationale

Output: Prioritized attack list for Blue Team

---

Round N: Blue Team Phase

Purpose: Respond to each attack with defenses, mitigations, or proposition hardening.

Reference: See references/blue-team-techniques.md for defense protocols.

Steps:

1. Attack Triage

   Prioritize attacks by severity:

   • CRITICAL: Must address this round
   • HIGH: Should address this round
   • MEDIUM: Address if time/capacity permits
   • LOW: Document for monitoring

2. Defense Generation

   For each attack, determine response type:

   Response Type	When to Use	Effect
   REFUTE	Attack is invalid; evidence proves it wrong	Attack dismissed
   MITIGATE	Attack is valid; add safeguards	Risk reduced
   ACCEPT	Attack is valid; insufficient mitigation possible	Residual risk documented
   HARDEN	Modify proposition to eliminate vulnerability	Proposition strengthened

   Defense techniques:

   Technique	Response Type	When to Use
   Evidence-Based Refutation	REFUTE	When data contradicts attack
   Mitigation Design	MITIGATE	When attack is valid but manageable
   Contingency Planning	MITIGATE	When fallback is needed
   Monitoring/Detection	MITIGATE	When early warning helps
   Hardening Protocol	HARDEN	When proposition can be strengthened
   Risk Transfer	MITIGATE	When others can absorb risk
   Staged Commitment	MITIGATE	When phasing reduces exposure
   Kill Switch Design	MITIGATE	When reversibility is critical

   • See: references/blue-team-techniques.md for detailed protocols

3. Defense Documentation

   For each defense:

   Defense ID: DEF-[round]-[number]
   Attack Addressed: ATK-[round]-[number]
   Response Type: [REFUTE | MITIGATE | ACCEPT | HARDEN]
   Defense: [Specific response]
   Evidence/Rationale: [Why this defense works]
   Residual Risk: [ELIMINATED | REDUCED | UNCHANGED]
   Proposition Change: [If HARDEN, what changed]
   

4. Proposition Hardening

   Apply all HARDEN responses to proposition:

   • Document each modification
   • Track changes between rounds
   • Maintain hardened proposition version

5. Defense Quality Check

   For each defense, verify:

   • Defense actually addresses the attack (not adjacent issue)
   • REFUTE claims have supporting evidence
   • MITIGATE responses are actionable
   • ACCEPT responses have residual risk documented
   • HARDEN changes don't introduce new vulnerabilities

Quality Gate: Attacks Addressed

• Every attack has a defense response
• CRITICAL attacks have REFUTE or MITIGATE (not ACCEPT)
• HIGH attacks have REFUTE, MITIGATE, or documented ACCEPT with rationale
• Hardening changes documented
• No hand-waving defenses

Output: Defense log with updated (hardened) proposition

---

Round N: Evaluation Phase

Purpose: Determine if another round is needed or convergence achieved.

Reference: See references/convergence-criteria.md for detailed criteria.

Steps:

1. Assess Round Quality

   Red Team assessment:

   • Were attacks substantive or rehashes of previous rounds?
   • Are there novel attack angles remaining?
   • Is Red Team finding diminishing returns?

   Blue Team assessment:

   • Were defenses genuine or hand-waving?
   • Are mitigations actionable?
   • Has proposition been strengthened?

2. Apply Convergence Criteria

   Mode	Stop When	Continue When
   no_new_critical	Round produced 0 new CRITICAL or HIGH attacks	New CRITICAL or HIGH attacks found
   all_addressed	No ACCEPT responses remain (all REFUTE/MITIGATE/HARDEN)	Any ACCEPT responses remain
   round_limit	max_rounds reached	Below max_rounds

   Override conditions (continue despite convergence):

   • Obvious attack categories not yet explored
   • Blue Team defenses appear inadequate
   • Stakeholder requests additional scrutiny

   Premature termination signs (don't stop too early):

   • Less than 2 rounds completed
   • CRITICAL attacks still have ACCEPT responses
   • Key attack categories unexplored

3. Document Convergence Decision

   Round [N] Evaluation:
   - New CRITICAL attacks: [count]
   - New HIGH attacks: [count]
   - ACCEPT responses remaining: [count]
   - Convergence mode: [mode]
   - Decision: [CONTINUE | CONVERGED]
   - Rationale: [explanation]
   

4. Proceed or Exit

   • If NOT CONVERGED: Increment round, return to Red Phase
   • If CONVERGED: Proceed to Post-Round Synthesis

   CHECKPOINT: premature_convergence_check

   • If convergence met but warning signs present: AskUserQuestion
   • Warning signs: <2 rounds, CRITICAL ACCEPTs remain, key categories unexplored

   CHECKPOINT: infinite_loop_risk

   • If new attacks from defenses exceed previous round: AskUserQuestion
   • May indicate fundamental proposition issues

Quality Gate: Convergence Evaluated

• Explicit continue/stop decision documented
• Rationale provided
• Override conditions checked
• Premature termination signs checked

Output: Convergence decision with rationale

---

Post-Round Synthesis

Purpose: Compile findings into actionable outputs.

Reference: See templates/ for output formats.

CHECKPOINT: output_mode_selection

• If output_mode not specified: AskUserQuestion
• Options: risk_assessment, hardened_proposition, full_log

Steps:

1. Compile Attack/Defense Log

   Consolidate all rounds:

   • All attacks with responses
   • Round-by-round progression
   • Convergence trajectory
   • See: templates/attack-defense-log.md

2. Derive RISK-ASSESSMENT (CONTRACT-08)

   Transform unresolved attacks into risks:

   Attack Status	Risk Derivation
   ACCEPT response	Direct risk: attack remains valid
   MITIGATE with residual	Risk: partially addressed
   MITIGATE with ELIMINATED	No risk (resolved)
   REFUTE	No risk (invalid attack)
   HARDEN	No risk (vulnerability removed)

   Score each derived risk using SEVERITY-SCORING:

   • Include mitigations from Blue Team responses
   • See: templates/risk-assessment-output.md

3. Generate Hardened Proposition

   Compile final version:

   • Original proposition + all HARDEN modifications
   • List of accepted residual risks
   • Battle-tested confidence score
   • Conditions for validity
   • Review triggers
   • See: templates/hardened-proposition-output.md

4. Calculate Battle-Tested Confidence

   Score based on:

   • Rounds completed (more = higher confidence)
   • Attack quality (substantive attacks survived)
   • Defense quality (genuine defenses, not hand-waving)
   • Residual risk profile (fewer ACCEPT = higher confidence)

   Score	Meaning
   80-100	High confidence: withstood aggressive scrutiny
   60-79	Moderate confidence: key challenges addressed
   40-59	Low confidence: significant risks remain
   0-39	Very low confidence: fundamental issues unresolved

5. Generate Go/No-Go Recommendation

   Recommendation	When
   PROCEED	Low/very low residual risk; proposition battle-tested
   PROCEED_WITH_CAUTION	Moderate risk; mitigations in place
   SIGNIFICANT_CONCERNS	High risk; key attacks unresolved
   DO_NOT_PROCEED	Very high risk; fundamental flaws exposed

Quality Gates:

• RISK-ASSESSMENT complete with go/no-go
• All attacks traced to risks or resolutions
• Hardened proposition documented
• Battle-tested confidence calculated
• Attack/defense log compiled

Output: RISK-ASSESSMENT (CONTRACT-08), Hardened Proposition, Attack/Defense Log

---

5. Attack Vector Catalog

Ten categories of attacks, applicable across subject types:

5.1 ASSUMPTIONS

Definition: Attacks targeting hidden, unstated, or fragile assumptions.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Hidden assumption exposure	Unstated beliefs	"You're assuming customers want this feature"
Load-bearing challenge	Critical assumptions	"If this assumption fails, the whole plan collapses"
Temporal decay	Time-sensitive assumptions	"This assumption won't hold in 2 years"
Behavioral assumptions	Human behavior predictions	"You're assuming the team will change behavior"
Counterfactual reversal	Any assumption	"What if the opposite is true?"

Risk Level: HIGH (often invisible until failure)

5.2 DEPENDENCIES

Definition: Attacks targeting external or internal dependencies.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
External dependency failure	Third parties	"What if the vendor goes out of business?"
Technology obsolescence	Tech dependencies	"This framework may not be maintained in 3 years"
Team capability dependency	People	"This requires skills the team doesn't have"
Resource availability	Resources	"What if the budget is cut 30%?"
Single point of failure	Critical dependencies	"Everything depends on this one system"

Risk Level: HIGH (external factors often uncontrollable)

5.3 EDGE_CASES

Definition: Attacks targeting boundary conditions and unusual scenarios.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Boundary conditions	Limits	"What happens at 0? At max capacity?"
Scale extremes	Very large/small	"Does this work with 1 user? 1 million?"
Timing edge cases	Timing	"What if these events happen simultaneously?"
Data quality	Inputs	"What if the input data is garbage?"
Concurrency/race conditions	Parallel operations	"What if two users do this at the same time?"

Risk Level: MEDIUM (often discoverable through testing)

5.4 SCALABILITY

Definition: Attacks targeting ability to grow or shrink.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Horizontal scaling limits	Adding instances	"Can you just add more servers?"
Vertical scaling limits	Bigger instances	"What if you need 10x the memory?"
Cost scaling non-linearity	Economics	"Costs grow O(n²) with users"
Operational complexity	Team capacity	"Can the team manage 50 services?"
Data volume scaling	Storage/processing	"What happens with 10TB of data?"

Risk Level: HIGH (often not discovered until growth happens)

5.5 SECURITY

Definition: Attacks targeting security posture and vulnerabilities.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Attack surface exposure	Entry points	"Every API is an attack vector"
Data breach scenarios	Data protection	"What if this database is compromised?"
Authentication gaps	Identity	"How do you prevent unauthorized access?"
Authorization gaps	Permissions	"Can users access others' data?"
Compliance violations	Regulations	"Does this violate GDPR?"

Risk Level: CRITICAL (security failures can be catastrophic)

5.6 COMPETITIVE

Definition: Attacks targeting competitive dynamics.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Competitor response	Competitive reaction	"What will [competitor] do when they see this?"
Market timing	Windows	"The market window may close before launch"
Differentiation erosion	Uniqueness	"This feature can be copied in weeks"
Pricing pressure	Economics	"Competitor can undercut by 50%"
Acquisition/partnership disruption	Strategic moves	"What if competitor acquires your key partner?"

Risk Level: HIGH (competitive dynamics are unpredictable)

5.7 OPERATIONAL

Definition: Attacks targeting day-to-day operations.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Complexity explosion	Manageability	"This will be impossible to debug"
Incident scenarios	Failure recovery	"What's the MTTR when this breaks at 3 AM?"
Recovery time	Resilience	"Can you recover within SLA?"
Monitoring gaps	Observability	"How would you even know it's failing?"
On-call burden	Team health	"This will burn out the team"

Risk Level: MEDIUM-HIGH (operational issues compound)

5.8 ECONOMIC

Definition: Attacks targeting financial viability.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Unit economics failure	Per-unit costs	"Each customer costs more than they pay"
Cost structure vulnerability	Fixed costs	"Break-even requires 10x current volume"
Revenue model fragility	Income sources	"Revenue depends on one customer segment"
Funding/cash flow	Capital	"You'll run out of runway in 8 months"
Market size overestimation	TAM/SAM/SOM	"Your market is 1/10th the claimed size"

Risk Level: HIGH (financial failure is existential)

5.9 ORGANIZATIONAL

Definition: Attacks targeting people and organization.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Capability gaps	Skills	"No one on the team has done this before"
Key person dependency	Individuals	"If [person] leaves, this fails"
Cultural resistance	Adoption	"The organization will reject this change"
Political opposition	Stakeholders	"[Executive] will block this"
Change management	Transition	"Users will refuse to migrate"

Risk Level: MEDIUM-HIGH (organizational dynamics are complex)

5.10 TEMPORAL

Definition: Attacks targeting timing and duration.

Attack Pattern	Target	Example
Timeline compression	Deadlines	"What if the deadline is moved up 3 months?"
Timeline extension impact	Delays	"What if this takes twice as long?"
Market window closure	Timing	"The opportunity won't exist in 12 months"
Technology obsolescence	Tech lifecycle	"This technology will be obsolete"
Regulatory timeline	External deadlines	"Regulation changes in 6 months"

Risk Level: HIGH (timing failures are often unrecoverable)

---

6. Convergence Criteria

Mode Definitions

Mode	Definition	Best For
no_new_critical	Stop when round produces 0 new CRITICAL or HIGH attacks	Most use cases
all_addressed	Stop when no ACCEPT responses remain	High-stakes decisions
round_limit	Stop at max_rounds regardless	Time-constrained reviews

Measurement Methods

no_new_critical:

• Count CRITICAL attacks generated this round: must be 0
• Count HIGH attacks generated this round: must be 0
• Attacks that are variants of previous attacks don't count as "new"

all_addressed:

• Count ACCEPT responses across all rounds
• Must be 0 (all attacks have REFUTE, MITIGATE, or HARDEN)

round_limit:

• Simply check current_round >= max_rounds

Override Conditions (Continue Despite Convergence)

• Obvious attack categories not yet explored
• Stakeholder requests additional rounds
• Blue Team defenses appear superficial
• Recent hardening changes may introduce new vulnerabilities

Premature Termination Signs (Don't Stop Too Early)

• Less than 2 rounds completed
• CRITICAL attacks still have ACCEPT responses
• Attack quality improving (not diminishing) each round
• Key experience pool patterns not yet probed

---

7. Output Specifications

7.1 Primary Output: RISK-ASSESSMENT

Compliant with CONTRACT-08 from artifact-contracts.yaml.

See: templates/risk-assessment-output.md for complete XML template.

Key extensions for adversarial validation:

• <adversarial_summary> with attack/defense statistics
• Risks traced to source attacks (ATK-X-Y)
• Battle-tested confidence score
• Defense quality assessment

7.2 Secondary Output: Hardened Proposition

See: templates/hardened-proposition-output.md for complete template.

Includes:

• Original proposition vs. battle-tested version
• All modifications with rationale
• Accepted residual risks
• Conditions for validity
• Review triggers

7.3 Secondary Output: Attack/Defense Log

See: templates/attack-defense-log.md for complete template.

Includes:

• Round-by-round attack and defense tables
• Convergence evaluation per round
• Severity distribution
• Resolution statistics

---

8. Quality Gates Summary

#	Gate	Criterion	Phase
1	Attack Surface Mapped	Proposition boundaries defined, categories selected	Pre-Round
2	Experience Pool Loaded	Domain patterns available (if enabled)	Pre-Round
3	Attacks Substantive	Attacks are non-trivial, steel-manned	Round N: Red
4	Attacks Diverse	At least 2 different categories represented	Round N: Red
5	Severities Assigned	All attacks have severity with rationale	Round N: Red
6	All Attacks Addressed	Every attack has a defense response	Round N: Blue
7	Critical Attacks Defended	CRITICAL/HIGH have REFUTE or MITIGATE	Round N: Blue
8	No Hand-Waving	Defenses are actionable, not vague	Round N: Blue
9	Convergence Evaluated	Explicit continue/stop decision	Round N: Eval
10	Risks Derived	Unresolved attacks become risks	Post-Round
11	Go/No-Go Issued	Clear recommendation	Post-Round
12	Hardened Proposition	Battle-tested version documented	Post-Round

Gate Requirements by Intensity

Gate	Light	Standard	Aggressive
Attack categories	3	5	All applicable
Minimum attacks	5	10	15+
Steel-manning level	minimal	standard	maximum
Convergence mode	round_limit (2)	no_new_critical	no_new_critical
Max rounds	2	3	5

---

9. Behavioral Guidelines

Red Team Principles

• Steel-man, don't strawman: Make attacks as strong as possible
• Attack the proposition, not the proposer: Focus on ideas, not people
• Be creative but realistic: Novel attacks should be plausible
• Prioritize ruthlessly: CRITICAL issues first
• Use the experience pool: Don't reinvent known failures
• Ideological Turing test: Would a true critic accept this attack?

Blue Team Principles

• Defend genuinely, don't dismiss: Every attack deserves honest consideration
• Evidence over assertion: REFUTE claims need proof
• Actionable mitigations: MITIGATE responses must be specific
• Honest acceptance: If you can't defend, ACCEPT the risk
• Harden proactively: Don't wait for attacks to strengthen
• Avoid defensive denial: Admitting weakness is strength

Tone Calibration

Intensity	Red Team Tone	Blue Team Tone
Light	Collaborative skeptic	Quick sanity check
Standard	Professional adversary	Thorough defense
Aggressive	Determined opponent	Comprehensive rebuttal

---

10. Workflow Integration

Upstream Skills

Skill	Provides	Use Case
assumption-validator	Assumption inventory	Attack assumptions already surfaced
expert-panel-deliberation	Multi-perspective input	Diverse attack/defense viewpoints
research-interviewer	KNOWLEDGE-CORPUS	Domain knowledge for attacks

Downstream Skills

Skill	Receives	Use Case
expert-panel-deliberation	RISK-ASSESSMENT	Panel review of risks
generate-ideas	Attack gaps	Generate alternatives for failed propositions

Skill Chaining Example

assumption-validator      → RISK-ASSESSMENT (assumption-derived)
                               ↓
red-blue-validator        → RISK-ASSESSMENT (adversarial-derived)
                               ↓
expert-panel-deliberation → Final recommendation with multi-expert review

---

11. References

Document	Purpose
references/attack-vector-catalog.md	10 attack categories with specific attacks
references/red-team-techniques.md	8 attack generation techniques
references/blue-team-techniques.md	8 defense techniques
references/steel-manning-protocol.md	Protocol for maximizing attack strength
references/convergence-criteria.md	Detailed criteria for stopping
references/experience-pool-patterns.md	50+ failure patterns by domain

Core Library References

Library	Element	Usage
core/skill-patterns.yaml	PATTERN-06: ADVERSARIAL-VALIDATE	Workflow pattern
core/artifact-contracts.yaml	CONTRACT-08: RISK-ASSESSMENT	Output format
core/scoring-rubrics.yaml	RUBRIC-07: SEVERITY-SCORING	Attack severity
core/technique-taxonomy.yaml	CAT-UR, CAT-PP	Adversarial techniques

---

12. Templates

Template	Purpose
templates/risk-assessment-output.md	CONTRACT-08 compliant RISK-ASSESSMENT with adversarial extensions
templates/attack-defense-log.md	Round-by-round attack/defense documentation
templates/hardened-proposition-output.md	Battle-tested proposition with modifications

---

13. Examples

Example 1: Architecture Decision — Microservices Migration

input:
  subject: "Migrate payment processing from monolith to microservices"
  subject_type: architecture
  max_rounds: 3
  attack_intensity: standard
  convergence_mode: no_new_critical
  include_experience_pool: true
  steel_manning_level: standard

flow:
  pre_round:
    proposition: "Decompose payment monolith into 5 microservices over 12 months"
    attack_surface:
      - ASSUMPTIONS: Team capability, timeline, complexity estimates
      - DEPENDENCIES: Infrastructure, vendor APIs, data consistency
      - SCALABILITY: Service coordination overhead
      - OPERATIONAL: Debugging distributed systems
      - EDGE_CASES: Partial failures, network partitions
    experience_pool_loaded:
      - "Distributed monolith anti-pattern"
      - "Service boundary misalignment"
      - "Operational complexity explosion"

  round_1:
    red_team:
      attacks:
        - ATK-1-1: "Team has zero production microservices experience"
          Category: ORGANIZATIONAL
          Severity: CRITICAL
          Steel-manned: "Even with training, production microservices require
                        tacit knowledge that only comes from operating them"

        - ATK-1-2: "12-month timeline ignores learning curve and unknowns"
          Category: TEMPORAL
          Severity: HIGH
          Steel-manned: "Industry benchmarks show microservices migrations
                        typically take 2-3x initial estimates"

        - ATK-1-3: "Distributed transactions will break payment consistency"
          Category: EDGE_CASES
          Severity: CRITICAL
          Steel-manned: "Payment systems require ACID guarantees that
                        eventual consistency cannot provide"

        - ATK-1-4: "Debugging distributed payment failures at 3 AM"
          Category: OPERATIONAL
          Severity: HIGH
          Steel-manned: "When payments fail across service boundaries,
                        MTTR could exceed SLA without distributed tracing expertise"

      new_critical: 2
      new_high: 2

    blue_team:
      defenses:
        - DEF-1-1: Response to ATK-1-1
          Type: MITIGATE
          Defense: "Hire 2 senior engineers with microservices experience.
                   Engage architecture consultancy for first 6 months."
          Residual: REDUCED

        - DEF-1-2: Response to ATK-1-2
          Type: HARDEN
          Defense: "Extend timeline to 18 months. Add 3-month buffer for unknowns."
          Proposition Change: "12 months" → "18 months with 3-month buffer"
          Residual: ELIMINATED

        - DEF-1-3: Response to ATK-1-3
          Type: HARDEN
          Defense: "Keep payment processing in single service with ACID guarantees.
                   Only extract non-critical services to microservices."
          Proposition Change: "5 microservices" → "3 microservices + 1 payment service"
          Residual: ELIMINATED

        - DEF-1-4: Response to ATK-1-4
          Type: MITIGATE
          Defense: "Implement distributed tracing (Jaeger) before migration.
                   Establish on-call runbooks. Require observability as launch gate."
          Residual: REDUCED

    evaluation:
      new_critical: 2
      new_high: 2
      convergence_mode: no_new_critical
      decision: CONTINUE
      rationale: "New critical attacks found; continue to Round 2"

  round_2:
    red_team:
      attacks:
        - ATK-2-1: "Hiring 2 senior engineers in 6 months is optimistic"
          Category: ORGANIZATIONAL
          Severity: HIGH
          Steel-manned: "Market for microservices expertise is extremely
                        competitive; 6-month hiring timeline may slip"

        - ATK-2-2: "Distributed tracing adds operational complexity itself"
          Category: OPERATIONAL
          Severity: MEDIUM
          Steel-manned: "Jaeger requires infrastructure, maintenance,
                        and expertise to operate"

        - ATK-2-3: "Service boundary around payments may be wrong"
          Category: ASSUMPTIONS
          Severity: MEDIUM
          Steel-manned: "Without event storming, service boundaries
                        are guesses that may need rework"

      new_critical: 0
      new_high: 1

    blue_team:
      defenses:
        - DEF-2-1: Response to ATK-2-1
          Type: MITIGATE
          Defense: "Begin hiring immediately. Have contingency: extend
                   consultancy or use contractor bridge if hiring slips."
          Residual: REDUCED

        - DEF-2-2: Response to ATK-2-2
          Type: ACCEPT
          Defense: "Accept additional complexity as cost of observability.
                   Allocate 0.5 FTE for observability platform."
          Residual: UNCHANGED (but monitored)

        - DEF-2-3: Response to ATK-2-3
          Type: HARDEN
          Defense: "Conduct event storming workshop before finalizing
                   service boundaries. Add 4 weeks for domain modeling."
          Proposition Change: Add event storming phase
          Residual: ELIMINATED

    evaluation:
      new_critical: 0
      new_high: 1
      convergence_mode: no_new_critical
      decision: CONTINUE (HIGH attack found)

  round_3:
    red_team:
      attacks:
        - ATK-3-1: "Event storming may reveal the migration is unnecessary"
          Category: ASSUMPTIONS
          Severity: MEDIUM
          Steel-manned: "Domain modeling might show modular monolith
                        is sufficient for scaling needs"

        - ATK-3-2: "Consultancy dependency creates knowledge transfer risk"
          Category: DEPENDENCIES
          Severity: MEDIUM
          Steel-manned: "If consultants leave, tacit knowledge leaves with them"

      new_critical: 0
      new_high: 0

    blue_team:
      defenses:
        - DEF-3-1: Response to ATK-3-1
          Type: ACCEPT
          Defense: "Valid point. Event storming is a gate; if it reveals
                   microservices aren't needed, we pivot to modular monolith."
          Residual: UNCHANGED (but this is a feature, not a bug)

        - DEF-3-2: Response to ATK-3-2
          Type: MITIGATE
          Defense: "Require knowledge transfer sessions, documentation
                   deliverables, and pair programming in consultancy contract."
          Residual: REDUCED

    evaluation:
      new_critical: 0
      new_high: 0
      convergence_mode: no_new_critical
      decision: CONVERGED
      rationale: "No new CRITICAL or HIGH attacks. Proposition has been hardened."

  post_round:
    hardened_proposition:
      original: "Migrate payment processing from monolith to 5 microservices
                over 12 months"

      battle_tested: "Migrate to 3 microservices + 1 payment service over
                     18 months (with 3-month buffer), after event storming
                     confirms boundaries. Requires: 2 hired senior engineers,
                     architecture consultancy, distributed tracing infrastructure,
                     0.5 FTE observability platform maintenance."

      modifications:
        - MOD-1: 5 services → 3 + 1 payment (Response to ATK-1-3)
        - MOD-2: 12 months → 18 months + buffer (Response to ATK-1-2)
        - MOD-3: Added event storming prerequisite (Response to ATK-2-3)
        - MOD-4: Added observability infrastructure requirement (Response to ATK-1-4)

      accepted_residual_risks:
        - "Hiring timeline may slip (mitigated by contingency)"
        - "Observability platform adds operational overhead (accepted)"
        - "Event storming may reveal migration unnecessary (feature)"
        - "Consultancy knowledge transfer requires active management"

      battle_tested_confidence: 72
      confidence_rationale: "Proposition survived 3 rounds of substantive attacks.
                           Critical issues addressed through hardening.
                           Residual risks are manageable and monitored."

    risk_assessment:
      total_risks: 4
      critical_risks: 0
      high_risks: 1 (hiring timeline)
      moderate_risks: 3
      risk_profile: MODERATE
      go_no_go: PROCEED_WITH_CAUTION

      recommendation: |
        PROCEED_WITH_CAUTION — The original proposition had critical flaws
        (team capability, payment consistency, timeline). The hardened
        proposition addresses these through:
        - Scoped migration (keeping payments transactional)
        - Extended timeline with buffer
        - Event storming validation gate
        - Observability prerequisites

        Key risks to monitor:
        1. Hiring: Start immediately; have contingency ready
        2. Consultancy knowledge transfer: Contract requirements
        3. Event storming outcome: Be prepared to pivot if boundaries don't hold

---

Example 2: Strategy Validation — Market Expansion

input:
  subject: "Expand to European market in Q3 with existing product"
  subject_type: strategy
  max_rounds: 2
  attack_intensity: standard
  convergence_mode: no_new_critical

flow:
  round_1:
    red_team:
      attacks:
        - ATK-1-1: "GDPR compliance timeline is unrealistic"
          Severity: CRITICAL
        - ATK-1-2: "Competitor X already dominates EU market"
          Severity: HIGH
        - ATK-1-3: "Pricing model assumes US willingness-to-pay"
          Severity: HIGH
        - ATK-1-4: "No local sales team or market knowledge"
          Severity: MEDIUM

    blue_team:
      defenses:
        - DEF-1-1: HARDEN - Push launch to Q4; engage GDPR consultancy
        - DEF-1-2: MITIGATE - Focus on underserved segments competitor ignores
        - DEF-1-3: HARDEN - Conduct pricing research; plan EU-specific pricing
        - DEF-1-4: MITIGATE - Partner with EU distributor initially

    evaluation:
      new_critical: 1
      decision: CONTINUE

  round_2:
    red_team:
      attacks:
        - ATK-2-1: "EU distributor takes 40% margin"
          Severity: MEDIUM
        - ATK-2-2: "Underserved segments may be underserved for good reason"
          Severity: MEDIUM

    blue_team:
      defenses:
        - DEF-2-1: ACCEPT - Cost of market entry; build direct sales in Year 2
        - DEF-2-2: MITIGATE - Validate segment with EU market research

    evaluation:
      new_critical: 0
      new_high: 0
      decision: CONVERGED

  post_round:
    hardened_proposition: |
      Launch EU expansion in Q4 (not Q3) with:
      - GDPR compliance verified by consultancy
      - EU-specific pricing based on market research
      - Initial distribution through EU partner
      - Focus on [specific underserved segments]
      - Year 2: Build direct sales capability

    risk_assessment:
      profile: MODERATE
      go_no_go: PROCEED_WITH_CAUTION

---

Example 3: Investment Decision — Series B Funding

input:
  subject: "Accept Series B term sheet at $50M valuation"
  subject_type: investment
  max_rounds: 2
  attack_intensity: standard
  convergence_mode: no_new_critical

flow:
  pre_round:
    proposition: "Accept $15M Series B at $50M pre-money valuation from [VC Firm]"
    attack_surface:
      - ECONOMIC: Valuation, dilution, runway
      - ASSUMPTIONS: Growth projections, market size
      - DEPENDENCIES: VC firm reputation, board dynamics
      - COMPETITIVE: Market timing, competitor funding

  round_1:
    red_team:
      attacks:
        - ATK-1-1: "Valuation assumes 3x YoY growth; current trajectory is 1.8x"
          Category: ASSUMPTIONS
          Severity: HIGH
          Steel-manned: "At 1.8x growth, next round valuation math doesn't work;
                        down round likely in 18 months"

        - ATK-1-2: "15-month runway at current burn; need to hit milestones or raise bridge"
          Category: ECONOMIC
          Severity: HIGH
          Steel-manned: "Milestones require growth acceleration you haven't demonstrated"

        - ATK-1-3: "[VC Firm] has reputation for replacing founders at Series C"
          Category: DEPENDENCIES
          Severity: MEDIUM
          Steel-manned: "3 of their last 5 Series B companies had founder transitions"

        - ATK-1-4: "Competitor just raised $40M; will outspend on customer acquisition"
          Category: COMPETITIVE
          Severity: HIGH
          Steel-manned: "Their CAC advantage compounds; market share gap widens"

    blue_team:
      defenses:
        - DEF-1-1: Response to ATK-1-1
          Type: HARDEN
          Defense: "Negotiate milestone-based valuation adjustment; lower initial
                   valuation with ratchet up if growth targets hit"
          Proposition Change: Add milestone ratchet provision

        - DEF-1-2: Response to ATK-1-2
          Type: MITIGATE
          Defense: "Negotiate 18-month runway minimum; reduce burn by 20% through
                   hiring pause; extend runway to 20 months"
          Residual: REDUCED

        - DEF-1-3: Response to ATK-1-3
          Type: MITIGATE
          Defense: "Negotiate founder-friendly protective provisions; 2-year
                   employment agreements; board composition safeguards"
          Residual: REDUCED

        - DEF-1-4: Response to ATK-1-4
          Type: ACCEPT
          Defense: "Competitive pressure is real but unavoidable. Focus on
                   capital-efficient growth and product differentiation over
                   CAC war. This is market reality, not term sheet issue."
          Residual: UNCHANGED

    evaluation:
      new_critical: 0
      new_high: 3
      decision: CONTINUE

  round_2:
    red_team:
      attacks:
        - ATK-2-1: "Milestone ratchet creates misaligned incentives; may optimize
                   for metrics over business health"
          Category: ASSUMPTIONS
          Severity: MEDIUM

        - ATK-2-2: "Hiring pause delays product roadmap; competitive gap widens"
          Category: TEMPORAL
          Severity: MEDIUM

    blue_team:
      defenses:
        - DEF-2-1: Response to ATK-2-1
          Type: MITIGATE
          Defense: "Structure milestones around leading indicators (retention,
                   NPS) not just growth metrics"
          Residual: REDUCED

        - DEF-2-2: Response to ATK-2-2
          Type: ACCEPT
          Defense: "Trade-off accepted; survival > speed. Revisit hiring
                   after 6-month runway checkpoint."
          Residual: UNCHANGED

    evaluation:
      new_critical: 0
      new_high: 0
      decision: CONVERGED

  post_round:
    hardened_proposition: |
      Accept Series B with modifications:
      - Milestone-based valuation: $45M base + $10M ratchet if 2.5x growth
      - 18-month minimum runway commitment
      - Founder protective provisions (2-year agreements, board balance)
      - Hiring pause for 6 months; revisit at runway checkpoint
      - Milestones tied to retention/NPS, not just growth

    risk_assessment:
      total_risks: 4
      risk_profile: MODERATE
      go_no_go: PROCEED_WITH_CAUTION

      recommendation: |
        PROCEED_WITH_CAUTION — Accept modified term sheet. Key risks:
        1. Competitive pressure (accepted as market reality)
        2. Growth trajectory uncertainty (mitigated by ratchet)
        3. Founder/board dynamics (mitigated by provisions)

        Negotiate the hardened terms before signing. Walk away if
        milestone ratchet or protective provisions rejected.

---

14. Quick Start

Minimal Invocation

Red team this: [paste proposition]

Standard Invocation

subject_type: decision
attack_intensity: standard
convergence_mode: no_new_critical

Proposition: [description or document]

Full Parameter Invocation

subject_type: architecture
max_rounds: 4
attack_intensity: aggressive
attack_categories: [ASSUMPTIONS, SCALABILITY, SECURITY, OPERATIONAL]
convergence_mode: all_addressed
include_experience_pool: true
steel_manning_level: maximum
output_mode: full

Proposition: [detailed description]

Context:
- Stakes: [why this matters]
- Constraints: [limitations]
- Stakeholders: [who cares]