polymarket-brier-skill

Forecast a Polymarket question with Claude, persist the prediction, and Brier-score it once the market resolves. Returns its own probability, market YES probability, and a mispricing delta so the user can spot calibration gaps between their tools, their gurus, and reality. Use when the user mentions a Polymarket slug, asks "is this market mispriced," wants their forecast tracked over time, or asks how calibrated their forecasting source has been over the last 7 / 30 / 90 days. The skill that tells you not just what's hot, but whether the loudest forecaster was actually right last quarter.