pre-mortem

name	pre-mortem
description	Runs a structured pre-mortem on a PRD or launch plan, categorizing risks as Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants, with launch-blocking action plans. Use before any significant product launch or execution milestone. Triggers on: pre-mortem, risk analysis, launch readiness, what could go wrong, launch risks, risk mitigation, launch blockers, stress-test plan.

Pre-Mortem

Core Philosophy

A pre-mortem assumes failure and works backward. Instead of asking "what could go wrong?", you ask "it's 3 months post-launch and it failed — what happened?"

This framing bypasses optimism bias and social pressure. People who would never say "I think this will fail" in a planning meeting will freely describe how it failed after the fact. The pre-mortem is a structured permission structure to surface what everyone suspects but nobody says.

When to Use

• Before any significant product launch or feature release
• After a PRD is written but before engineering begins — while it's still cheap to change
• Before a major business decision (pricing change, market entry, partnership)
• When a plan feels too clean and assumptions haven't been challenged

Workflow

1. Read the PRD or Launch Plan

Understand the product, the assumptions, the timeline, the success criteria, and the key dependencies. If a PRD doesn't exist, create a one-page summary of the plan first.

2. Assume Failure

Set the frame: "It is 14 weeks from now. The launch happened. It failed. Revenue is below target, adoption is low, or a critical defect was found in production. What went wrong?"

Generate a list of failure modes. Do not filter at this stage — capture everything.

3. Categorize Risks

Tigers — Real problems you personally see that could derail the project

• Based on evidence, past experience, or clear logic
• Require action before launch
• These should keep you awake at night

Paper Tigers — Concerns others might raise, but you don't believe are genuine risks

• Valid on the surface, but unlikely or overblown
• Worth documenting to resolve stakeholder anxiety
• Not worth significant resource investment

Elephants — Topics the team isn't discussing enough

• Unspoken concerns, uncomfortable assumptions, decisions no one has made
• You're not sure if they're real risks — that uncertainty is itself a signal
• Require investigation, not just acknowledgment

4. Classify Tigers by Urgency

Launch-Blocking: Must be resolved before launch

• Core feature broken or incomplete
• Regulatory or legal blocker
• Key dependency not confirmed

Fast-Follow: Must be resolved within 30 days of launch

• Performance issues under load
• Secondary features missing for a key segment
• Monitoring gaps

Track: Monitor post-launch; act if it becomes a real problem

• Edge cases, nice-to-have capabilities
• Low-frequency scenarios

5. Build Action Plans for Launch-Blocking Tigers

For each:

• Risk: Clear description of the failure mode
• Mitigation: Specific action to prevent or reduce impact
• Owner: Who is responsible for the mitigation
• Due date: When this must be resolved

6. Align the Team

Share the pre-mortem output in a working session. The goal is not consensus — it's to ensure everyone agrees on which risks are real and who owns them.

Output Format

## Pre-Mortem — [Product Name] — [Date]

### Tigers (Real Risks)
| Risk | Urgency | Mitigation | Owner | Due |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Description] | Launch-Blocking / Fast-Follow / Track | [Action] | [Name] | [Date] |

### Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns)
- [Risk]: [Why it's not a genuine blocker]

### Elephants (Unspoken Worries)
- [Topic]: [What needs to be investigated or decided]

### Launch Readiness Signal
Based on Tigers: [Ready to launch / Blocked by X / Conditional on Y]

Antipatterns

• Blame framing: Pre-mortems are about systemic risks, not individual fault. Keep the discussion focused on failure modes, not people.
• Filtering too early: Suppressing risks that feel embarrassing or politically sensitive. The worst failures usually come from the things nobody wanted to say.
• All Paper Tigers: If everything gets downgraded to overblown, you've run a cheerleading session, not a risk analysis.
• No owner on mitigations: A risk with no owner is a risk that will materialize. Every launch-blocking Tiger needs a named person responsible for the mitigation.
• One-time exercise: Revisit the pre-mortem 2-3 weeks before launch to verify mitigations are on track, not just documented.