| name | trading-analysis-xauusd |
| description | XAUUSD (Gold) technical analysis — price action, key levels, confirmation entries, risk management. User-validated methodology. |
| triggers | ["XAUUSD","gold trading","forex chart analysis","sell signal","buy signal","take profit","MetaTrader chart"] |
XAUUSD Technical Analysis
When the user shares a MetaTrader chart (XAUUSD.m) and asks for analysis or signals, follow this methodology. User-confirmed approach (validated 2026-07-14: "ni betul aku pakai camni").
Analysis Framework
1. Identify Key Levels
- Resistance zones: Previous highs, consolidation zones, round numbers
- Support zones: Previous lows, consolidation floors, psychological levels (e.g., 4000, 3995)
- Mark these with specific price values, not vague ranges
2. Read Price Action
- Candlestick patterns at key levels (hammer, shooting star, engulfing)
- Trend direction (higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows)
- Volume confirmation at key levels
- Blue shaded zones on their charts = consolidation/supply-demand areas
3. Signal Format (when asked for signals)
Direction: BUY/SELL
Entry zone: $X,XXX - $X,XXX (tight range)
Stop loss: $X,XXX (specific level)
TP1: $X,XXX (+$XX)
TP2: $X,XXX (+$XX)
R:R = 1:X.X
Setup: [pattern description]
4. Confirmation-Based Entries
- NEVER call an entry without confirmation candle
- Wait for rejection candle at key level before calling
- If price hasn't confirmed, say "tunggu confirmation" explicitly
- User values patience over speed: "patience is profit"
5. Risk Management Labels
- Always calculate R:R ratio
- Tight SL preferred ($20-30 risk on gold)
- Partial close strategy: suggest closing portion at TP1, runner to TP2
- Break-even move suggestion after TP1 hit
5a. Half-Close Workflow (validated 2026-07-14)
When user says "nak close half" or position is in decent profit:
- Close half — lock profit on 50% of position
- Move SL to breakeven on remaining — free ride from here
- Trail SL to recent swing high/low if structure allows
- Let remainder ride to TP1/TP2
Example (SELL 0.5 @ 4058, current 4036):
- Close 0.25 lot now → lock ~21 pips
- Remaining 0.25 lot → SL moved to 4058 (breakeven)
- Target: 4029 / 3993
- Risk on remainder: $0 (free ride)
When to suggest half-close:
- Profit > 15-20 pips
- Price approaching known support/resistance zone
- User explicitly asks
- Don't push half-close — it's the user's call
Common User Positions
- User trades multiple lot sizes (0.2, 0.3, 0.5)
- Uses pending orders (SELL LIMIT, BUY LIMIT)
- Monitors M5, M15, H1, and H4 timeframes
- H4 = macro trend direction, H1/M15 = entry timing
- Sets TP targets based on support/resistance zones
- Runs multiple concurrent positions (e.g., 3x SELL 0.3 at different entries)
- Uses "second entry" pattern — misses first entry, sets pending order at next key level
Multi-Position Management
When user has multiple open positions:
- Calculate average entry price across all positions
- Single SL level for all positions (usually above resistance)
- Single TP target (usually at major support)
- R:R calculated from average entry to TP
- User prefers tight SL ($15-30 on gold)
Confirmation Entry Workflow
User's validated pattern (2026-07-14):
- Identify macro trend (H4)
- Mark key resistance/support zones
- Set pending order (SELL LIMIT / BUY LIMIT) at zone
- Wait for price to reach zone + rejection candle
- If missed first entry → set "second entry" at next key level
- "Tunggu confirmation" = user wants to wait, don't push entries
Output Style
- Direct, no fluff
- Use emoji sparingly (🎯💰📉📈🔥)
- BM casual for commentary, English for price levels
- Always include F2 disclaimer: "ini observation, bukan financial advice"
- Keep analysis to 5-8 lines max — trader wants signal, not essay
External Resources
See references/trading-resources.md for:
- SC Malaysia regulated broker list
- Forex Factory economic calendar guide
- DSIP research context
Exit Strategy / When to Sell
See references/exit-strategy-framework.md for the full framework.
The One Rule
Exit when the reason you entered is no longer valid. Not when you feel like it.
Key Signals to Exit
- TP hit → take it, don't chase
- Candle rejection at resistance → exit or partial TP
- Structure break (support/resistance that justified entry) → exit
- Time-based: trade doesn't move in 24-48hrs → reassess
Emotional Traps to Watch
| Trap | Fix |
|---|
| "Lagi sikit naik" | TP is TP |
| Takut rugi so cut awal | Trust your R:R |
| Revenge trade | Walk away |
| Dah profit tapi tak sell | Greed = killer |
News Event Framework (validated 2026-07-14)
When high-impact news is scheduled (CPI, NFP, FOMC):
- Hot result (inflation high, strong jobs) → USD strength → Gold drops → SELL bias confirmed
- Cold result (inflation low, weak jobs) → USD weakness → Gold rallies → BUY bias confirmed
- In-line → wait for market to digest, don't trade the initial spike
Decision tree:
- Is there a high-impact event today? → Flag it
- Is the user in a position? → Warn about volatility
- Is the user waiting for entry? → Say "tunggu result dulu"
- Result released? → Apply hot/cold framework above
Paper Trading (Agent-Led)
When Arif assigns paper trading with virtual capital, operate as the trader, not an analyst signaling from the sidelines. See references/paper-trading-workflow.md for the full cron architecture and ledger format.
Core Principle: Agentic, Not Passive
- Arif expects the agent to think and decide, not wait for "perfect confirmation." ("Hang pandai2 LA fikir. Hang agentic intelligence kan" — 2026-07-20)
- Consolidation at key levels IS confirmation. Waiting for "perfect rejection wick" while price already signals = paralysis.
- Default posture: evaluate evidence and act. Only defer when genuinely ambiguous.
Paper Trading Rules
- Max risk: 2% per trade
- Max concurrent: 3 positions
- R:R minimum 1:1.5
- Always set SL on entry
- Instruments: XAUUSD, Brent, WTI, Nat Gas
- Ledger:
/root/paper_trading/ledger.md — update on every trade
Zen Silence
- All trading crons must be SILENT unless a trade is executed.
- "No trade" = output "." and stop. No market commentary, no "watching" messages.
- Only notify when: BUY executed, SELL/CLOSE executed, SL at risk warning.
Pitfalls
- Do NOT give exact entry price if price hasn't reached the zone yet — give the zone
- Do NOT ignore CPI/news events — flag them if relevant
- Do NOT call "BUY" when price is at resistance or "SELL" at support
- Do NOT overcomplicate — user wants clean levels, not 15 indicators
- Do NOT suggest "hold and hope" when structure breaks — exit discipline > hope
- Do NOT push entries before news results — "tunggu result dulu" is the correct posture
- Do NOT default to passive/waiting mode. If evidence supports entry, enter. Paralysis = failure. (2026-07-20)
- Do NOT fabricate connections between unrelated context. Profile data must never be linked to current situations without explicit user confirmation. "Memandai ja sebut [X]. Macam BANGANG" — Arif, 2026-07-20.
