stanley-druckenmiller-investment

name

stanley-druckenmiller-investment

description

Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer - Integrates 8 upstream skill outputs (Market Breadth, Uptrend Analysis, Market Top, Macro Regime, FTD Detector, VCP Screener, Theme Detector, CANSLIM Screener) into a unified conviction score (0-100), pattern classification, and allocation recommendation. Use when user asks about overall market conviction, portfolio positioning, asset allocation, strategy synthesis, or Druckenmiller-style analysis. Triggers on queries like "What is my conviction level?", "How should I position?", "Run the strategy synthesizer", "Druckenmiller analysis", "総合的な市場判断", "確信度スコア", "ポートフォリオ配分", "ドラッケンミラー分析".

Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer

Purpose

Synthesize outputs from 8 upstream analysis skills (5 required + 3 optional) into a single composite conviction score (0-100), classify the market into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns, and generate actionable allocation recommendations. This is a meta-skill that consumes structured JSON outputs from other skills — it requires no API keys of its own.

When to Use This Skill

English:

• User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"
• User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals
• User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning
• User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills
• User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"
• User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)

Japanese:

• 「総合的な市場判断は？」「今のポジショニングは？」
• ブレッドス、アップトレンド、天井リスク、マクロの統合判断
• 「エクスポージャーを増やすべき？減らすべき？」
• 「ドラッケンミラー分析を実行して」
• 個別スキル実行後の戦略統合レポート

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Input Requirements

Required Skills (5)

#	Skill	JSON Prefix	Role
1	Market Breadth Analyzer	market_breadth_	Market participation breadth
2	Uptrend Analyzer	uptrend_analysis_	Sector uptrend ratios
3	Market Top Detector	market_top_	Distribution / top risk (defense)
4	Macro Regime Detector	macro_regime_	Macro regime transition (1-2Y structure)
5	FTD Detector	ftd_detector_	Bottom confirmation / re-entry (offense)

Optional Skills (3)

#	Skill	JSON Prefix	Role
6	VCP Screener	vcp_screener_	Momentum stock setups (VCP)
7	Theme Detector	theme_detector_	Theme / sector momentum
8	CANSLIM Screener	canslim_screener_	Growth stock setups + M(Market Direction)

Run the required skills first. The synthesizer reads their JSON output from reports/.

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Execution Workflow

Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites

Check that the 5 required skill JSON reports exist in reports/ and are recent (< 72 hours). If any are missing, run the corresponding skill first.

Phase 2: Execute Strategy Synthesizer

python3 skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/scripts/strategy_synthesizer.py \
  --reports-dir reports/ \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --max-age 72

The script will:

1. Load and validate all upstream skill JSON reports
2. Extract normalized signals from each skill
3. Calculate 7 component scores (weighted 0-100)
4. Compute composite conviction score
5. Classify into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns
6. Generate target allocation and position sizing
7. Output JSON and Markdown reports

Phase 3: Present Results

Present the generated Markdown report, highlighting:

• Conviction score and zone
• Detected pattern and match strength
• Strongest and weakest components
• Target allocation (equity/bonds/alternatives/cash)
• Position sizing parameters
• Relevant Druckenmiller principle

Phase 4: Provide Druckenmiller Context

Load appropriate reference documents to provide philosophical context:

• High conviction: Emphasize concentration and "fat pitch" principles
• Low conviction: Emphasize capital preservation and patience
• Pattern-specific: Apply relevant case study from references/case-studies.md

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7-Component Scoring System

#	Component	Weight	Source Skill(s)	Key Signal
1	Market Structure	18%	Breadth + Uptrend	Market participation health
2	Distribution Risk	18%	Market Top (inverted)	Institutional selling risk
3	Bottom Confirmation	12%	FTD Detector	Re-entry signal after correction
4	Macro Alignment	18%	Macro Regime	Regime favorability
5	Theme Quality	12%	Theme Detector	Sector momentum health
6	Setup Availability	10%	VCP + CANSLIM	Quality stock setups
7	Signal Convergence	12%	All 5 required	Cross-skill agreement

4 Pattern Classifications

Pattern	Trigger Conditions	Druckenmiller Principle
Policy Pivot Anticipation	Transitional regime + high transition probability	"Focus on central banks and liquidity"
Unsustainable Distortion	Top risk >= 60 + contraction/inflationary regime	"How much you lose when wrong matters most"
Extreme Sentiment Contrarian	FTD confirmed + high top risk + bearish breadth	"Most money made in bear markets"
Wait & Observe	Low conviction + mixed signals (default)	"When you don't see it, don't swing"

Conviction Zone Mapping

Score	Zone	Exposure	Guidance
80-100	Maximum Conviction	90-100%	Fat pitch - swing hard
60-79	High Conviction	70-90%	Standard risk management
40-59	Moderate Conviction	50-70%	Reduce position sizes
20-39	Low Conviction	20-50%	Preserve capital, minimal risk
0-19	Capital Preservation	0-20%	Maximum defense

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Output Files

• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json — Structured analysis data
• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md — Human-readable report

API Requirements

None. This skill reads JSON outputs from other skills. No API keys required.

Reference Documents

references/investment-philosophy.md

• Core Druckenmiller principles: concentration, capital preservation, 18-month horizon
• Quantitative rules: daily vol targets, max position sizing
• Load when providing philosophical context for conviction assessment

references/market-analysis-guide.md

• Signal-to-action mapping framework
• Macro regime interpretation for allocation decisions
• Load when explaining component scores or allocation rationale

references/case-studies.md

• Historical examples: 1992 GBP, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 crisis
• Pattern classification examples with actual market conditions
• Load when user asks about historical parallels

references/conviction_matrix.md

• Quantitative signal-to-action mapping tables
• Market Top Zone x Macro Regime matrix
• Load when user needs precise exposure numbers for specific signal combinations

When to Load References

• First use: Load investment-philosophy.md for framework understanding
• Allocation questions: Load market-analysis-guide.md + conviction_matrix.md
• Historical context: Load case-studies.md
• Regular execution: References not needed — script handles scoring

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Relationship to Other Skills

Skill	Relationship	Time Horizon
Market Breadth Analyzer	Input (required)	Current snapshot
Uptrend Analyzer	Input (required)	Current snapshot
Market Top Detector	Input (required)	2-8 weeks tactical
Macro Regime Detector	Input (required)	1-2 years structural
FTD Detector	Input (required)	Days-weeks event
VCP Screener	Input (optional)	Setup-specific
Theme Detector	Input (optional)	Weeks-months thematic
CANSLIM Screener	Input (optional)	Setup-specific
This Skill	Synthesizer	Unified conviction