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Unit economics, SaaS metrics, cohort analysis, scenario modeling, cash flow forecasting, and CC-specific financial calculations for OASIS AI
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| name | financial-modeling |
| description | Unit economics, SaaS metrics, cohort analysis, scenario modeling, cash flow forecasting, and CC-specific financial calculations for OASIS AI |
| tags | ["skill","finance","modeling","unit-economics","saas-metrics"] |
| triggers | ["financial modeling","use financial modeling","run financial modeling","unit economics"] |
| tier | specialized |
Note (2026-05-18): Worked examples below use pre-2026-05-18 numbers ($2,500 primary retainer, $2,982 MRR, 94% concentration). They remain as pedagogical references — the formulas + structure still apply. For current state see brain/STATE.md (~$371 confirmed MRR, no dominant client).
Every business decision is a financial decision with numbers attached. This skill gives CC the formulas, templates, and CLI tool to model revenue, measure unit economics, and make decisions from data rather than gut feel.
Trigger: python scripts/financial_model.py, "unit economics", "runway", "financial model", "what's our LTV"
CLI tool: python scripts/financial_model.py
Related: skills/strategic-planning/SKILL.md, skills/ceo-briefing/SKILL.md
Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
CAC = Total Sales & Marketing Spend (period) ÷ New Customers Acquired (period)
Example: CC spends $500 in ad spend + 10 hours × $50/hr opportunity cost = $1,000
Acquired 2 clients → CAC = $1,000 ÷ 2 = $500 per client
Note: For CC currently, CAC ≈ $0 cash (all organic/referral) but has real opportunity cost in time.
Lifetime Value (LTV)
LTV = ARPU × Gross Margin % × Average Customer Lifespan (months)
Where average customer lifespan = 1 ÷ Monthly Churn Rate
Example: ARPU = $1,000/mo, Gross Margin = 94%, Churn = 5%/mo
LTV = $1,000 × 0.94 × (1 ÷ 0.05) = $1,000 × 0.94 × 20 = $18,800
LTV:CAC Ratio
LTV:CAC = LTV ÷ CAC
Target: ≥ 3:1 (good), ≥ 5:1 (great), ≥ 10:1 (exceptional for early stage)
Below 1:1 → you're losing money on every customer
Example: LTV $18,800, CAC $500 → LTV:CAC = 37.6:1 (exceptional)
Payback Period
Payback Period (months) = CAC ÷ (ARPU × Gross Margin %)
Example: CAC $500, ARPU $1,000, Gross Margin 94%
Payback = $500 ÷ ($1,000 × 0.94) = $500 ÷ $940 = 0.5 months
Monthly Burn Rate
Burn Rate = Total Monthly Expenses - Total Monthly Revenue
Positive burn = profitable (revenue > expenses)
Negative burn = losing money each month
Runway
Runway (months) = Cash On Hand ÷ Monthly Net Burn
If profitable: runway is theoretically infinite — shift focus to growth metrics
Net MRR = New MRR + Expansion MRR - Contraction MRR - Churned MRR
New MRR: Revenue from brand new customers this month
Expansion MRR: Revenue increase from existing customers (upsells, add-ons)
Contraction MRR: Revenue decrease from existing customers (downgrades)
Churned MRR: Revenue lost from customers who cancelled
Example (CC, March 2026):
ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)
ARR = MRR × 12
Current ARR = $2,982 × 12 = $35,784
Gross Margin % = (Revenue - Direct Costs) ÷ Revenue × 100
CC's direct costs (per client):
- Supabase hosting: ~$8/client/mo
- AI API costs (Claude/GPT): ~$10-30/client/mo
- Time cost: variable
Current gross margin: ~94% (services business, near-zero COGS)
Logo Churn Rate = Customers Lost ÷ Customers at Start of Period
Revenue Churn Rate = MRR Lost ÷ MRR at Start of Period
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) = (MRR Start + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) ÷ MRR Start × 100
NRR > 100% → existing customers are growing faster than they're churning (expansion revenue)
NRR = 100% → flat from existing base
NRR < 100% → churning out faster than expanding
CC's NRR (March 2026): ~110% (primary retainer rev share growing)
Quick Ratio = (New MRR + Expansion MRR) ÷ (Contraction MRR + Churned MRR)
> 4: Healthy, efficient growth
2-4: Growing with acceptable efficiency
< 2: Growing but inefficiently (churn is eating gains)
< 1: Net negative growth
CC's current Quick Ratio: Undefined (no churn denominator = perfect retention)
Track each cohort of clients (grouped by the month they started) and see how their revenue evolves.
## Cohort Retention — Revenue ($)
| Cohort | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 6 | Month 12 |
|--------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|
| Jan 2026 | $X | $X (X%) | $X (X%) | $X (X%) | $X (X%) |
| Feb 2026 | $X | $X (X%) | $X (X%) | — | — |
| Mar 2026 | $X | — | — | — | — |
Percentages are vs Month 1 revenue for that cohort.
100%+ in later months = expansion. <100% = contraction or churn.
## Revenue Projection — [Date to Date]
### Assumptions
| Variable | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
|----------|-------------|---------|-----------|
| New clients/mo | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Avg deal size | $500 | $1,000 | $1,500 |
| Monthly churn rate | 5% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Expansion MRR/mo | 0% | 2% | 5% |
### Projected MRR
| Month | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
|-------|-------------|---------|-----------|
| Mar 2026 (actual) | $2,982 | $2,982 | $2,982 |
| Apr 2026 | $X | $X | $X |
| May 2026 | $X | $X | $X |
| Jun 2026 | $X | $X | $X |
North star: $10,000 USD Net MRR by September 30, 2026 ($5K achieved 2026-06-20)
Gap: $4,000 (from $6,000 contracted) ÷ $1,000 avg deal = ~4 new clients needed
Price Elasticity ≈ % Change in Demand ÷ % Change in Price
Typical SMB SaaS elasticity: -0.3 to -1.0
(10% price increase → 3-10% customer loss)
Revenue impact = New Price × (1 - Elasticity × Price Change %) × Current Customers
Example: Raise price 20% with -0.5 elasticity
Expected customer loss: 0.5 × 20% = 10%
Net revenue change: 1.20 × 0.90 = 1.08 → +8% revenue
Decision: Take it (revenue positive, better client quality)
Monthly Revenue Per Employee = MRR ÷ Headcount (equivalent)
Current: $2,982 ÷ 1 (CC) = $2,982/person (excellent)
Hire break-even month = (Annual salary ÷ 12) ÷ Expected Monthly Revenue Generated
For a $2,000/mo VA:
If VA handles 10 hrs/week × $50/hr CC opportunity cost = $2,000/mo recovered
Break-even: $2,000 ÷ $2,000 = Month 1
Decision: Take it. Any recovered CC time that generates $1 in sales pays for itself.
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) = Sum of (each client's revenue share)²
HHI = 1.0 → 100% concentrated (one client = all revenue) — CRITICAL
HHI 0.5-1.0 → Highly concentrated — dangerous
HHI 0.2-0.5 → Moderately concentrated — manageable
HHI < 0.2 → Diversified — healthy
CC current (March 2026):
Primary retainer: $2,791 / $2,982 = 93.6%
Base (other): $191 / $2,982 = 6.4%
HHI = (0.936)² + (0.064)² = 0.876 + 0.004 = 0.880
Interpretation: CRITICAL concentration risk.
One bad call with the primary retainer = 94% revenue collapse.
Target by Q3 2026: HHI < 0.5 (add 3+ clients with no single client >40%)
## Cash Flow Forecast — [Start Date] to [End Date]
### Revenue (Inflows)
| Source | Monthly | Notes |
|--------|---------|-------|
| Primary retainer | $2,500 | Flat, invoiced 1st of month |
| Primary retainer rev share | ~$291 | 15% × ~$1,940 community MRR |
| Base retainers | $191 | Other clients |
| One-time projects | $0 | Add when confirmed |
| **Total Inflows** | **~$2,982** | |
### Expenses (Outflows)
| Item | Monthly | Notes |
|------|---------|-------|
| Claude Pro | $140 | Critical infrastructure |
| Supabase | $25 | Database |
| Hostinger VPS | $14 | n8n automation server |
| Domain/misc | $5 | Estimated |
| **Total Outflows** | **~$184** | |
### Net Cash Position
| Month | Net Monthly | Running Cash |
|-------|------------|-------------|
| Month 1 | $2,798 | [Balance + $2,798] |
| Month 2 | $2,798 | [+ $2,798] |
| Month 3 | $2,798 | [+ $2,798] |
Retainers: Recognized monthly when work is delivered (accrual). Do not count as revenue until the month it covers.
Project work: Recognized on completion of agreed milestones. If multi-month, recognize proportionally.
RevShare (primary retainer): Recognized monthly based on actual community MRR reported. Volatile — model conservatively.
3-month emergency fund = 3 × Monthly Expenses = 3 × $184 = $552 (trivial for CC)
Better emergency metric: primary-retainer churn buffer
If primary-retainer churns tomorrow, how many months until we need to cut costs?
Cash reserve ÷ Monthly expenses after primary-retainer churn = $X ÷ $184 = X months
Build pipeline NOW such that HHI < 0.5 before needing the emergency fund.
Current state as of Q1 2026. Update after each /briefing run.
## CC Financial Snapshot — March 2026
| Metric | Value | Target | Status |
|--------|-------|--------|--------|
| MRR | $2,982 | $5,000 | 59.6% |
| ARR | $35,784 | $60,000 | 59.6% |
| Gross Margin | ~94% | >85% | OK |
| Monthly Overhead | $184 | <$500 | OK |
| Net Profit/mo | ~$2,798 | >$4,500 | Tracking |
| CAC (cash) | ~$0 | <$300 | Exceptional |
| LTV (est.) | $18,000+ | >$10,000 | OK |
| LTV:CAC | 36:1+ | >3:1 | Exceptional |
| HHI (concentration) | 0.88 | <0.5 | CRITICAL |
| Runway | Indefinite | >12 mo | OK |
| MRR gap to target | $2,018 | $0 | 48 days |
| Clients needed | ~2 × $1,000 | 0 | In pipeline |
# Calculate all unit economics from current data
python scripts/financial_model.py unit-economics
# 12-month revenue forecast
python scripts/financial_model.py forecast --months 12
# Bull/base/bear scenario model
python scripts/financial_model.py scenario --type base
# Client concentration risk (HHI)
python scripts/financial_model.py concentration
# Cash runway calculation
python scripts/financial_model.py runway
# JSON output for agent consumption
python scripts/financial_model.py unit-economics --json
Use this when evaluating a pricing change, new client acquisition strategy, or hiring decision. Run with actual numbers, not estimates.
CAC = (Monthly cash spend on sales/marketing) + (CC hours on sales × $50/hr opportunity cost)
÷ New clients acquired that month
Example (April 2026):
Cash spend: $0 (organic only)
CC hours on sales: 8 hrs × $50 = $400
New clients: 1
CAC = $400 ÷ 1 = $400
If CAC is $0 cash (referral/organic), still track opportunity cost. Invisible costs are real costs.
LTV = Monthly MRR per client × Gross Margin % × Avg Lifespan (months)
Avg Lifespan = 1 ÷ Monthly Churn Rate
Example:
ARPU: $1,000/mo
Gross Margin: 94%
Churn rate: 4%/mo → Avg lifespan: 25 months
LTV = $1,000 × 0.94 × 25 = $23,500
LTV:CAC = LTV ÷ CAC
Benchmarks:
< 1:1 → You lose money on every client. Stop and fix.
1–3:1 → Barely viable. Improve margin or reduce CAC.
3–5:1 → Healthy. Standard for services.
5–10:1 → Great. Keep scaling.
> 10:1 → Exceptional. Increase sales spend aggressively.
Example: $23,500 ÷ $400 = 58.75:1 (exceptional — organic acquisition + high margin)
Payback Period (months) = CAC ÷ (Monthly ARPU × Gross Margin %)
Example: $400 ÷ ($1,000 × 0.94) = $400 ÷ $940 = 0.4 months (~12 days)
Target: < 6 months for services. < 12 months for SaaS with high churn risk.
At what point does a client become profitable, net of all costs?
Monthly net from client = ARPU - Direct costs (hosting + API + time)
Cumulative net = Monthly net × Months active
Break-even month = CAC ÷ Monthly net
Example:
ARPU: $1,000
Direct costs: $60 (Supabase $8 + API $30 + 1hr CC time $22)
Monthly net: $940
CAC: $400
Break-even: $400 ÷ $940 = 0.4 months → profitable by end of month 1
Add this to every new client onboarding record in Supabase.
Use for any significant decision: pricing change, new hire, product launch, marketing spend.
## Scenario: [Decision Name] — [Date]
| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---------|------|------|------|
| New clients/month | 0 | 1 | 2–3 |
| Avg deal size | $500 | $1,000 | $1,500 |
| Monthly churn rate | 5% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Expansion MRR/month | 0% | 2% | 5% |
| CAC (time cost) | $600 | $400 | $200 |
Assign probabilities (must sum to 100%):
Bear: X% | Base: X% | Bull: X%
Month 1: Bear $X | Base $X | Bull $X
Month 3: Bear $X | Base $X | Bull $X
Month 6: Bear $X | Base $X | Bull $X
Expected Value (weighted avg) = (Bear × P) + (Base × P) + (Bull × P)
Trigger to shift scenarios:
→ Bear: [specific event, e.g., "primary-retainer churns or 0 new clients in April"]
→ Bull: [specific event, e.g., "2 new clients close in April"]
Update this monthly. It is the single most important number for a solo operator.
## Cash Flow Projection — [Start Date]
### Revenue Inflows (Conservative)
| Source | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Notes |
|--------|---------|---------|---------|-------|
| Primary retainer | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | Flat |
| Primary retainer rev share | $451 | $480 | $510 | Growing 6.5%/mo |
| Other retainers | $191 | $191 | $191 | Stable |
| New clients | $0 | $500 | $1,000 | 1 new/mo Base |
| **Total inflows** | **$3,142** | **$3,671** | **$4,201** | |
### Expenses (Outflows)
| Item | Monthly | Quarter Total |
|------|---------|--------------|
| Claude Pro | $140 | $420 |
| Supabase | $25 | $75 |
| Hostinger VPS | $14 | $42 |
| Misc domains/tools | $5 | $15 |
| **Total outflows** | **$184** | **$552** |
### Net Position
| Month | Net | Running Total |
|-------|-----|--------------|
| Month 1 | $2,958 | $X (starting balance + $2,958) |
| Month 2 | $3,487 | $X + $3,487 |
| Month 3 | $4,017 | $X + $4,017 |
### Runway if primary-retainer churns tomorrow
Monthly expenses without primary retainer: $184
Monthly revenue without primary retainer: ~$191 (other retainers)
Net monthly: +$7 (barely cash-flow positive — no buffer)
Runway: Indefinite on expenses, but zero growth buffer
→ This is why HHI reduction is the #1 financial priority
Standard runway: Cash on hand ÷ Monthly burn rate
Survival runway (if major client churns): Cash on hand ÷ (Monthly expenses - retained revenue)
Target: Survival runway ≥ 6 months at all times
Already in this skill above. Target thresholds for action:
| HHI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|
| > 0.7 | Critical | Close 2+ new clients before any other priority |
| 0.5–0.7 | High risk | Add 1 new client per month until below 0.5 |
| 0.25–0.5 | Moderate | Monitor. Keep pipeline active. |
| < 0.25 | Healthy | Shift focus from diversification to expansion |
Track percentage of MRR from each category:
| Stream | MRR | % of Total | Target % |
|--------|-----|-----------|----------|
| OASIS retainers | $X | X% | <60% |
| OASIS rev share | $X | X% | <15% |
| PropFlow SaaS | $X | X% | >20% by Q3 |
| Nostalgic Requests | $X | X% | >10% by Q4 |
| One-time projects | $X | X% | <10% (not recurring) |
Alert rule: If any single stream exceeds 70% of total MRR, HHI is critical regardless of client count.
Not all MRR is equal. Score the MRR portfolio:
Quality Score = (Contracted MRR × 1.0) + (Handshake MRR × 0.7) + (Rev Share MRR × 0.5)
÷ Total MRR
> 0.85 → High quality (mostly contracted)
0.65–0.85 → Medium quality (mix of contracted and informal)
< 0.65 → Low quality (mostly informal — high churn risk)
CC current: ~0.64 (primary-retainer informal + rev share dominant)
Target: 0.75+ by adding formal contracts to existing clients