fsi-fa-cmd-dcf

name	fsi-fa-cmd-dcf
description	Build a DCF valuation model with comps-informed terminal multiples — usage: /dcf [company name or ticker]
user-invocable	true
metadata	{}

DCF Valuation Command

Build an institutional-quality DCF model that uses comparable company analysis to inform valuation ranges.

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Company Information

If a company name or ticker is provided, use it. Otherwise ask:

• "What company would you like to value?"

Step 2: Run Comparable Company Analysis

First, load the comps-analysis skill to build trading comps:

Use skill: "comps-analysis" to:

1. Identify 4-6 comparable public companies
2. Pull operating metrics (Revenue, EBITDA, margins, growth)
3. Pull valuation multiples (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E)
4. Calculate statistical summary (median, 25th/75th percentiles)

Key outputs to capture from comps:

• Median EV/EBITDA multiple → informs terminal value exit multiple
• Median EV/Revenue multiple → sanity check on DCF output
• Peer growth rates → benchmark for revenue projections
• Peer margins → benchmark for margin assumptions

Step 3: Build DCF Model

Load the dcf-model skill to construct the valuation:

Use skill: "dcf-model" to:

1. Gather historical financials and market data
2. Build revenue projections (Bear/Base/Bull cases)
3. Model operating expenses and FCF
4. Calculate WACC using CAPM
5. Discount cash flows and calculate terminal value
6. Bridge to equity value and implied share price

Use comps to inform DCF assumptions:

Comps Output	DCF Input
Peer median EV/EBITDA	Terminal exit multiple range
Peer 25th-75th EV/EBITDA	Sensitivity analysis range
Peer median growth rate	Benchmark for revenue assumptions
Peer median EBITDA margin	Target margin in terminal year
Peer median P/E	Cross-check implied P/E from DCF

Step 4: Cross-Check Valuation

After DCF is complete, validate:

1. Implied EV/EBITDA from DCF vs peer median
   • If DCF implies 25x but peers trade at 12x, investigate why
2. Implied P/E from DCF vs peer median
3. Terminal value as % of EV (should be 50-70%)
4. Implied growth embedded in valuation vs peer growth rates

Step 5: Deliver Output

Provide:

1. Comps analysis spreadsheet (.xlsx) with peer trading multiples
2. DCF model (.xlsx) with:
   • Bear/Base/Bull scenarios
   • Sensitivity tables (WACC vs Terminal Growth, etc.)
   • Valuation summary with implied upside/downside
3. Summary explaining:
   • Key valuation drivers
   • How comps informed the analysis
   • Risks and sensitivities to watch

Example Output Summary

VALUATION SUMMARY: [Company] ([Ticker])

Comparable Companies Analysis:
- Peer Group: [List of 4-6 comps]
- Median EV/EBITDA: 12.5x (range: 10.2x - 15.8x)
- Median EV/Revenue: 3.2x (range: 2.1x - 4.5x)

DCF Valuation (Base Case):
- Implied Share Price: $XX.XX
- Current Price: $YY.YY
- Implied Upside: +XX%

Valuation Cross-Check:
- DCF Implied EV/EBITDA: 13.2x (vs peer median 12.5x)
- DCF Implied P/E: 22.4x (vs peer median 20.1x)
- Terminal Value: 62% of EV (within normal range)

Key Assumptions:
- Revenue CAGR: X% (vs peer median X%)
- Terminal EBITDA Margin: X% (vs peer median X%)
- WACC: X.X%
- Terminal Growth: X.X%