| name | hypothesis-tree |
| description | This skill should be used when the user asks to "build a hypothesis tree," "structure this as an issue tree," "what are our hypotheses for X," or presents a problem statement that needs to be broken into falsifiable sub-hypotheses before analysis starts.
|
| allowed-tools | Read, Grep, Glob |
| metadata | {"version":"0.3.0","owner":"consulting practice","review_cadence":"quarterly","work_shape":"hypothesis-driven-analysis","permission_tier":"advisory","output_class":"draft-for-review","sourcing_policy":"volatile-facts-must-be-sourced"} |
Hypothesis Tree
When to use
Break a problem into falsifiable root and MECE sub-hypotheses before analysis. See ../../references/hypothesis-driven-approach.md.
What this skill does not do
- Does not run analysis — names evidence needed;
workplan-builder executes.
- Does not use topic labels as nodes — every node falsifiable.
- Does not keep branches with no so-what either direction — cut and list.
Preconditions
| Input | If missing |
|---|
| Problem as question | Restate and confirm before tree |
| Root hypothesis ambiguity | Present both roots; ask which to build |
Provisional mode
Uncertain root: two candidate roots with user choice; label structured first pass.
Trust spine
- Analytical Rigor (mandatory): MECE sub-hypotheses; evidence-needed per branch; cut branches listed.
- Confidence bands (
hypothesis-driven-analysis): High = triangulated evidence plan; Medium = single source; Low = assumption-driven — label load-bearing assumption.
- Per
trust-conventions.md for sourcing, numbers, gate.
Workflow
- Restate problem as question; confirm.
- Propose falsifiable root hypothesis.
- 3–5 MECE sub-hypotheses.
- Smallest evidence test per sub-hypothesis.
- So-what if TRUE and if FALSE; cut if neither matters.
- Output as tree.
Output format
ROOT HYPOTHESIS: [falsifiable claim]
1. [Sub-hypothesis 1]
Evidence needed: [...]
If TRUE: [...]
If FALSE: [...]
...
Cut branches: [...]
Worked example
Input: "Why did mid-tier churn spike?"
Excerpt: Root: price increase caused mid-tier churn. Sub-hypothesis: elasticity >15% in segment; evidence: cohort comparison Q1 vs Q4.
Quality checks before delivering
Propose profile update
When a stable convention surfaces during this run (thresholds, naming, tone, output format, or recurring corrections), propose a profile update: show the exact diff against ~/.claude/plugins/config/claude-for-strategy/consulting/CLAUDE.md (org-wide facts go to org-profile.md), ask for confirmation, and write only on yes. Only /consulting:practice-setup auto-applies a full profile write.
Outputs
Follows plugin CLAUDE.md § Outputs. Next: /consulting:workplan-builder.
