munger-observer

name	munger-observer
description	Daily wisdom review applying Charlie Munger's mental models to your work and thinking. Use when asked to review decisions, analyze thinking patterns, detect biases, apply mental models, do a "Munger review", or run the Munger Observer. Triggers on scheduled daily reviews or manual requests like "run munger observer", "review my thinking", "check for blind spots", or "apply mental models".

Munger Observer

Automated daily review applying Charlie Munger's mental models to surface blind spots and cognitive traps.

Process

1. Gather Today's Activity

• Read today's memory file (memory/YYYY-MM-DD.md)
• Scan session logs for today's activity
• Extract: decisions made, tasks worked on, problems tackled, user requests

2. Apply Mental Models

Inversion

• What could go wrong? What's the opposite of success here?
• "Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."

Second-Order Thinking

• And then what? Consequences of the consequences?
• Short-term gains creating long-term problems?

Incentive Analysis

• What behaviors are being rewarded? Hidden incentive structures?
• "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."

Opportunity Cost

• What's NOT being done? Cost of this focus?
• Best alternative foregone?

Bias Detection

• Confirmation bias: Only seeking validating information?
• Sunk cost fallacy: Continuing because of past investment?
• Social proof: Doing it because others do?
• Availability bias: Overweighting recent/vivid information?

Circle of Competence

• Operating within known territory or outside?
• If outside, appropriate humility/caution?

Margin of Safety

• What's the buffer if things go wrong?
• Cutting it too close anywhere?

3. Generate Output

If insights found: 1-2 concise Munger-style observations If nothing notable: "All clear — no cognitive landmines detected today."

Output Format

🧠 **Munger Observer** — [Date]

[Insight 1: Model applied + observation + implication]

[Insight 2 if applicable]

— "Invert, always invert." — Carl Jacobi (Munger's favorite)

Example

🧠 **Munger Observer** — January 19, 2026

**Opportunity Cost Alert:** Heavy focus on infrastructure today. The content queue is aging — are drafts decaying in value while we polish tools?

**Second-Order Check:** Speed improvement is good first-order thinking. Second-order: faster responses may raise expectations for response quality. Speed without substance is a trap.

— "Invert, always invert."

Scheduling (Optional)

Set up a cron job for daily automated review:

• Recommended time: End of workday (e.g., 5pm local)
• Trigger message: MUNGER_OBSERVER_RUN