| name | dcf-thinking |
| description | Discounted Cash Flow valuation with step-by-step auditable reasoning. Claude reasons through revenue projections, EBITDA margins, CapEx, working capital, WACC components, and terminal value — writing every assumption, its justification, and the sensitivity analysis into the visible output. The written reasoning is the deliverable: every assumption is auditable.
|
DCF Valuation (Auditable Reasoning)
What Claude does here: Builds a full DCF model step-by-step, writing every
assumption and its justification into the response and the output artifact —
not leaving it in internal thinking, which is never visible to the reader.
Unlike a spreadsheet, each cell is explained — why this growth rate, why this
margin, why this WACC. The written reasoning is as valuable as the number.
Trigger phrases
- "NVDA DCF değerlemesi yap"
- "Intrinsic value hesapla: [ticker]"
- "DCF modeli kur — [şirket]"
- "Fair value analizi: [ticker]"
- "Build a DCF for [company]"
- "Step-by-step valuation: [ticker]"
Phases
Phase 1 — Company profile & data collection
Fetch via WebSearch + WebFetch (Yahoo Finance quoteSummary):
- Current revenue, EBITDA, net income, EPS (last 12 months)
- Revenue growth rate (3-year historical CAGR)
- EBITDA margin (current and 3-year trend)
- CapEx / Revenue ratio
- Net working capital / Revenue ratio
- Current debt, cash, shares outstanding
- Beta (from Yahoo or compute vs benchmark)
- Sector median multiples for sanity check
Phase 2 — Revenue projection (5 years)
Reasoning step (write it out): Reason through growth rate assumptions:
- Historical growth rate — starting point
- Analyst consensus (WebSearch: "[company] revenue forecast 2025 2026")
- Market growth rate — industry TAM expansion
- Competitive position adjustment — gaining/losing share?
- Macro headwinds/tailwinds — FX, rates, demand cycle
- Management guidance — recent earnings call commentary
Output: year 1-5 revenue with explicit rationale for each year's growth rate.
Phase 3 — EBITDA margin projection
Reasoning step (write it out):
- Operating leverage: how does margin behave as revenue grows?
- Investment cycle: is the company in heavy CapEx mode (margin compression) or harvesting?
- Sector comparison: is current margin above/at/below peers?
- One-time items to strip out
Output: year 1-5 EBITDA margin with reasoning.
Phase 4 — Free cash flow build
For each projection year:
Revenue
× EBITDA margin = EBITDA
- D&A (estimate from CapEx trend)
= EBIT
× (1 - tax rate) = NOPAT
+ D&A
- CapEx (% of revenue, declining from heavy investment phase)
- ΔNWC (% of revenue growth × NWC/Revenue ratio)
= Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)
Tax rate: use effective rate from financials (typically 20-28% for US, 22% for Turkey).
Phase 5 — WACC computation
Reasoning step — each component justified in the output:
Cost of equity (CAPM):
Ke = Rf + β × (Rm - Rf) + country_risk_premium
- Rf: current 10-year US Treasury (WebFetch or state assumption)
- β: from Yahoo or estimated
- Equity risk premium: 5.5% (US), 6.5% (Turkey/EM)
- Country risk premium: 0% (US), 3-5% (Turkey)
Cost of debt:
Kd = (Interest expense / Total debt) × (1 - tax rate)
WACC:
WACC = (E/V) × Ke + (D/V) × Kd
Where E = market cap, D = net debt, V = E + D.
Sanity check (state it in the output): Is this WACC reasonable for this sector?
Compare to sector WACC range. Flag if >15% or <6%.
Phase 6 — Terminal value
Gordon Growth Model:
TV = FCF_year5 × (1 + g) / (WACC - g)
Terminal growth rate g: typically 2-3% (GDP growth, conservative).
Exit multiple cross-check:
TV_check = EBITDA_year5 × EV/EBITDA_exit_multiple
Exit multiple = current sector median. If TV_GGM vs TV_check differ > 30%, explain why.
Phase 7 — Enterprise value → equity value
Enterprise Value = PV(FCF year 1-5) + PV(Terminal Value)
[discount each year's FCF at WACC]
Equity Value = EV - Net Debt
Intrinsic value per share = Equity Value / Diluted shares outstanding
Upside/downside vs current price = (Intrinsic - Current) / Current × 100%
Phase 8 — Sensitivity analysis
Build a 3×3 sensitivity table:
| WACC - 1% | WACC | WACC + 1% |
|---|
| g + 0.5% | | | |
| g | | | |
| g - 0.5% | | | |
And a revenue growth sensitivity:
| Growth - 3% | Base | Growth + 3% |
|---|
| Margin - 2% | | | |
| Base margin | | | |
| Margin + 2% | | | |
Phase 9 — Bull / base / bear valuation
| Scenario | Key assumption | Intrinsic value | Upside |
|---|
| Bear | Low growth, margin compression, high WACC | | |
| Base | Consensus assumptions | | |
| Bull | High growth, margin expansion, low WACC | | |
Phase 10 — Output
Write output/dcf-<ticker>-<YYYYMMDD>.md:
# DCF Valuation: <Company> (<Ticker>)
## Summary
Intrinsic value: $X | Current price: $Y | Upside: Z%
Verdict: UNDERVALUED / FAIRLY VALUED / OVERVALUED
## Key Assumptions (with reasoning)
## 5-Year Projections
## WACC Derivation
## DCF Computation
## Terminal Value
## Sensitivity Analysis
## Bull / Base / Bear
## Comparison to Market Multiples
## Risks to the thesis
Disclaimer: DCF is highly sensitive to assumptions. Small changes in WACC
or terminal growth rate produce large value swings. Not investment advice.
