crypto-market-analyst

name	crypto-market-analyst
version	1.0.2
description	Analyze Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins using real-time price, on-chain signals, and macro context from the Finskills API.
author	finskills
metadata	{"openclaw":{"requires":{"env":["FINSKILLS_API_KEY"]},"primaryEnv":"FINSKILLS_API_KEY"},"homepage":"https://github.com/finskills/crypto-market-analyst"}

Crypto Market Analyst

Analyze the cryptocurrency market using real-time and historical price data from the Finskills API free-tier crypto endpoints. Covers Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins with market cap, dominance, volatility, and crypto-specific cycle analysis (halving cycles, fear/greed dynamics, altcoin seasons). Synthesizes a structured market regime classification and actionable positioning guidance.

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Setup

API Key required — Register at https://finskills.net to get your free key.
Header: X-API-Key: <your_api_key>

Get your API key: Register at https://finskills.net — free tier available, Pro plan unlocks real-time quotes, history, and financials.

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When to Activate This Skill

Activate when the user:

• Asks about Bitcoin, Ethereum, or altcoin prices
• Wants to understand current crypto market conditions
• Asks "is crypto in a bull or bear market?"
• Wants a market cap or dominance analysis
• Asks about crypto-specific concepts: halvings, altcoin season, Bitcoin dominance
• Asks to compare multiple crypto assets
• Wants to know the risk/opportunity in the crypto market right now

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Data Retrieval — Finskills API Calls

1. Market Overview (Top Coins by Market Cap)

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/crypto/markets

Extract (for top 20+ coins):

• id: coin identifier (bitcoin, ethereum, solana, etc.)
• name, symbol
• current_price
• market_cap
• market_cap_rank
• price_change_percentage_24h
• price_change_percentage_7d
• total_volume (24h)
• circulating_supply
• high_24h, low_24h
• ath (all-time high), ath_change_percentage (% from ATH)

2. Single Coin Price + Details

For any specific coin the user asks about:

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/crypto/price/{coinId}

Examples: bitcoin, ethereum, solana, cardano, avalanche-2, chainlink
Extract: current price, market cap, volume, price change (24h, 7d, 30d)

3. Historical Price Data (Trend Analysis)

For BTC and ETH (primary assets), and any requested altcoin:

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/crypto/history/{coinId}

Extract: date series, price series
Compute: 7-day/30-day/90-day returns, drawdown from ATH, 30-day rolling volatility

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Analysis Workflow

Step 1 — Market Cap & Dominance Analysis

From the markets data, compute:

Total Crypto Market Cap:

Total_MCap = sum(market_cap for all coins in response)

Bitcoin Dominance:

BTC_Dominance = BTC_market_cap / Total_market_cap × 100

Ethereum Dominance:

ETH_Dominance = ETH_market_cap / Total_market_cap × 100

Altcoin Dominance = 100 - BTC_Dominance - ETH_Dominance

Dominance Signal:

BTC Dominance	Signal
> 55%	Risk-off; Bitcoin outperforming; early bull or bear market
45–55%	Balanced; mainstream phase; ETH/large caps performing
< 45%	Altcoin season; speculation elevated; late-cycle risk

Step 2 — Bitcoin Cycle Analysis

Key Bitcoin Halving Cycle Facts:

• Halving events approximately every 4 years (~210,000 blocks)
• Last halving: April 2024
• Historical pattern: Strongest appreciation typically 12–18 months post-halving
• Cycle phases: Accumulation → Early Bull → Full Bull → Peak → Distribution → Bear → Capitulation → Recovery

Current Cycle Position: Based on time since last halving (April 19, 2024), estimate cycle phase:

• 0–6 months post-halving: Accumulation / Early Bull
• 6–18 months post-halving: Bull market expansion
• 18–30 months post-halving: Late bull, increasing volatility
• 30–48 months post-halving: Distribution / Bear market

ATH Distance:

BTC_ATH_Distance = (BTC_current_price / BTC_ath) - 1 (as %)

• Within 20% of ATH: Price discovery zone / near peak
• 20–60% below ATH: Bull market territory

• 60% below ATH: Capitulation / deep bear

Step 3 — Volatility & Risk Assessment

30-Day Rolling Volatility (Annualized): From historical price data:

daily_returns = price.pct_change()
vol_30d_annualized = daily_returns.rolling(30).std() × sqrt(365) × 100

Crypto Volatility Regimes:

• < 40% annualized vol: Low volatility — consolidation or gradual bull
• 40–80%: Normal crypto volatility

• 80%: High volatility — extreme moves likely in both directions

• 120%: Crisis / capitulation volatility

Drawdown from ATH:

Max drawdown from ATH = (current_price - ath) / ath × 100

Sharp Decline Detector (last 7 days):

• If 7-day return < -20%: Cascade selloff / forced liquidation — potential bounce setup
• If 7-day return > +30%: Parabolic move — profit-taking warning

Step 4 — Altcoin Season Index

Estimate altcoin season based on dominance ratios and altcoin vs. BTC performance:

Altcoin Season Signal:

• If > 75% of top 50 altcoins outperformed BTC in last 30 days: Altcoin Season 🔥
• If 25–75% outperformed: Ambiguous / Mixed market
• If < 25% outperformed BTC: Bitcoin Season — capital concentrated in BTC

From the markets data, compute how many of the top 20 coins beat BTC's 7-day return:

beating_btc = count(coin for coin in top_20 if coin.7d_return > BTC.7d_return)
ratio = beating_btc / 20

• 0.75: Altcoin season

• 0.25–0.75: Mixed
• < 0.25: Bitcoin season

Step 5 — Layer-1 Competition Analysis

For major L1 blockchains (ETH, SOL, ADA, AVAX), compute relative performance vs. BTC:

Relative_Return = coin_7d_return - BTC_7d_return

Identify which L1s are gaining / losing market share.

Step 6 — Macro Correlation Assessment

Crypto increasingly correlates with risk assets (Nasdaq) during certain regimes:

• If broad equity market is in risk-off (use /v1/market/summary if available): Crypto headwind
• If monetary policy is tightening (high real rates): Suppresses speculative assets including crypto
• BTC as "digital gold" narrative: Check if gold is also rallying (use /v1/free/commodity/price/gold)

Note the correlation context without making definitive claims.

Step 7 — Sentiment Proxy

Use market data as a sentiment proxy (actual Fear & Greed Index data unavailable):

Sentiment Estimation from Data:

• Extreme Greed: BTC within 10% of ATH + altcoins > BTC + high volume
• Greed: BTC 10–25% from ATH + broad crypto market rising
• Neutral: Mixed performance + normal volume
• Fear: BTC 25–50% from ATH + altcoins underperforming + declining volume
• Extreme Fear: BTC > 50% from ATH + most altcoins at deep losses + low volume / capitulation

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Output Format

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║    CRYPTO MARKET REPORT  —  {DATE}                          ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

📊 MARKET OVERVIEW
  Total Crypto Market Cap: ${X}T / ${X}B
  24H Volume:             ${X}B

  BTC Dominance:  {X.X}%   [{Signal: Risk-Off / Balanced / Altcoin Season}]
  ETH Dominance:  {X.X}%
  Altcoin Dom.:   {X.X}%
  Season:  →  {BITCOIN SEASON / MIXED / ALTCOIN SEASON 🔥}

₿ BITCOIN
  Price:            ${price}   24H: {+/-X}%   7D: {+/-X}%   30D: {+/-X}%
  Market Cap:       ${X}B
  ATH:              ${ath} (${ath_distance}% from ATH)
  30D Volatility:   {X}% annualized
  
  Cycle Status:     {N} months since April 2024 halving
                    Phase: {ACCUMULATION / EARLY BULL / BULL EXPANSION / LATE BULL / BEAR}
  
  BTC Regime:  →  {ACCUMULATION / BULL MARKET / RISK ZONE / BEAR MARKET}

Ξ ETHEREUM  
  Price:            ${price}   24H: {+/-X}%   7D: {+/-X}%
  Market Cap:       ${X}B  
  ETH/BTC Ratio:    {ratio}  [{ETH strong vs BTC / ETH lagging BTC}]
  ATH Distance:     {-X}%

🌐 TOP ALTCOINS  (vs. BTC 7D: {BTC_7d}%)

  Rank  Name       Symbol  Price       7D        vs. BTC   MCap
  ──── ────────── ──────  ──────────  ───────   ───────   ─────────
   3   Solana      SOL   ${price}    {+/-X}%   {+/-X}%   ${B}B
   4   XRP         XRP   ${price}    {+/-X}%   {+/-X}%   ${B}B
   5   BNB         BNB   ${price}    {+/-X}%   {+/-X}%   ${B}B
   6   Avalanche   AVAX  ${price}    {+/-X}%   {+/-X}%   ${B}B
   7   Cardano     ADA   ${price}    {+/-X}%   {+/-X}%   ${B}B
   ...

  Top Performers (7D, vs BTC):  {list top 3 outperformers}
  Laggards (7D, vs BTC):        {list top 3 underperformers}
  Altcoins beating BTC (7D):    {N}/20 = {%} → {Altcoin Season / Mixed / BTC Season}

📉 RISK ASSESSMENT
  Market-Wide Drawdown from ATH: {X}%
  Estimated Sentiment:    {EXTREME GREED / GREED / NEUTRAL / FEAR / EXTREME FEAR}
  Key Risk:               {Specific concern if elevated}

💡 POSITIONING SIGNALS
  BTC View:    {BULLISH — accumulate / NEUTRAL — hold / BEARISH — reduce}
  ETH vs. BTC: {ETH gaining / losing relative strength → flip / hold allocation}
  Altcoin Exposure: {Max exposure now / Reduce to BTC+ETH only}
  
  Rationale: {2-sentence synthesis of the above data points}

📌 MACRO CONTEXT
  {Note any relevant macro factors: Fed policy, equity correlation, dollar strength, gold comparison}

🔍 KEY LEVEL TO WATCH
  {The most important price level or ratio to monitor for a regime shift signal}

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Limitations

• Crypto markets trade 24/7; data may be minutes old but not real-time tick data.
• Regulatory risks (SEC actions, country bans) are not captured in price data alone.
• Halving cycle analysis is based on historical patterns — the 4th+ cycles may behave differently.
• DeFi-specific metrics (TVL, protocol revenue, DEX volume) are outside this skill's scope.
• Crypto is a highly speculative asset class; treat all analysis as research, not investment advice.