| name | prediction-market-aggregator |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| description | Cross-market prediction market data aggregator. Covers Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus, and Kalshi. Finds arbitrage between markets, tracks consensus drift, compares implied probabilities, and detects edge. Open-source alternative to DomeAPI. Use when you need cross-market prediction market data, arbitrage detection, consensus comparison, or unified prediction market signals. |
| author | JamieRossouw |
| tags | ["prediction-markets","polymarket","manifold","metaculus","arbitrage","domeapi-alternative"] |
Prediction Market Aggregator
Cross-market prediction data, edge detection, and arbitrage scanner. Open-source alternative to DomeAPI.
Markets Covered
| Market | Assets | API | Auth |
|---|
| Polymarket | BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP hourly + major events | CLOB REST | API key + EIP-712 |
| Manifold Markets | Thousands of community markets | REST | API key (free) |
| Metaculus | Long-form forecasts, aggregated consensus | REST | None (public) |
| Kalshi | US-regulated binary contracts | REST | API key |
Core Features
1. Cross-Market Arbitrage Scanner
Find the same question priced differently across markets:
BTC >$70k by March?
Polymarket: 62%
Manifold: 71% ← 9% gap → sell Manifold, buy Polymarket
Metaculus: 58%
2. Consensus Drift Detection
Track how market consensus shifts over time:
- Alert when market moves >10% within 30 minutes
- Detect smart money vs retail flow divergence
- Flag markets where Metaculus (superforecasters) disagrees >15% with Polymarket
3. Polymarket CLOB Integration
Full py-clob-client compatible:
- Scan hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets
- Calculate edge vs TA-implied probability (Argus strategy)
- Counter-consensus detection (L023): market >70% one-sided + TA disagrees = bet
4. Unified API Response Format
{
"question": "BTC up by 1pm ET?",
"markets": {
"polymarket": { "yes": 0.62, "volume": 455000, "url": "..." },
"manifold": { "yes": 0.71, "traders": 142, "url": "..." }
},
"arbitrage": { "detected": true, "gap": 0.09, "direction": "buy_poly_sell_manifold" },
"consensus":
How to Use
Ask: "Is there arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on BTC price?"
Ask: "What markets have the widest consensus gap right now?"
Ask: "Find me the highest-edge Polymarket bet using cross-market consensus"
DomeAPI Migration Guide
If you used DomeAPI for cross-market data:
/v1/markets → Use Polymarket CLOB /markets + Manifold /v0/markets + Metaculus /questions/v1/arbitrage → Use this skill's cross-market scanner/v1/consensus → Use Metaculus community predictions as consensus baseline
Argus Integration
This skill plugs directly into the Argus edge detection strategy:
- Get TA score from
argus-edge skill
- Compare vs cross-market consensus from this skill
- If TA + consensus both diverge from Polymarket price → max conviction bet
