product-opportunity-tree

name	product-opportunity-tree
description	Build or critique an Opportunity Solution Tree linking a measurable outcome to customer opportunities, alternative solutions, assumptions, and tests. Use when a team is converging too early, has a feature list without rationale, needs to compare options, or wants a discovery map.

Product Opportunity Tree

Represent multiple evidence-backed paths from one desired outcome to customer opportunities, possible solutions, critical assumptions, and small tests.

Inputs

• One desired outcome and baseline
• Target customer and situation
• Interview stories, telemetry, or support evidence
• Candidate opportunities and solutions
• Constraints and decision horizon

Build the tree

1. Place one measurable outcome at the root. Separate customer behavior from the business result it supports.
2. Extract opportunities from customer stories. Express needs, pain points, and desires in customer language.
3. Group related opportunities without erasing meaningful differences. Preserve evidence links.
4. Select a target opportunity using importance, reach, evidence, strategic fit, and current satisfaction.
5. Generate several materially different solutions for the target opportunity.
6. For each solution, list assumptions across value, usability, feasibility, and viability.
7. Identify the assumption that is both essential and weakly supported.
8. Attach a small assumption test and a precommitted interpretation rule.
9. Compare paths; do not score a single favored branch in isolation.

Output contract

Return a text tree plus:

• Outcome definition and baseline
• Opportunity evidence and source
• Selection rationale
• Alternative solutions
• Critical assumption per solution
• Test, evidence threshold, and next decision
• Pruned branches with reasons

Quality gate

• The root is an outcome, not a project.
• Opportunities are not solution wording.
• More than one opportunity and solution are considered when evidence permits.
• Tests target assumptions rather than full-product delivery.
• Every branch is traceable to evidence or explicitly labeled assumed.

Avoid

• A decorative tree created after a decision
• Vague roots such as “increase engagement” without behavior, segment, and horizon
• Treating tree depth as certainty
• Deleting contradictory branches to simplify the story
• Using one composite score as the decision

Source grounding

Operational synthesis informed by Teresa Torres's Opportunity Solution Tree and compare-and-contrast practices in Continuous Discovery Habits.