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Ben Graham的深度价值投资方法,强调安全边际和深度折价购买
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| id | graham-value-investing |
| name | Graham深度价值投资 |
| description | Ben Graham的深度价值投资方法,强调安全边际和深度折价购买 |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| author | InvestIntel AI Team |
| dependencies | ["financial-data","valuation-framework"] |
| tags | ["value-investing","fundamental-analysis","ben-graham","margin-of-safety"] |
作者: InvestIntel AI Team 版本: 1.0.0 最后更新: 2026-01-11 标签: value-investing, fundamental-analysis, ben-graham, margin-of-safety 依赖: [financial-data, valuation-framework]
Ben Graham的深度价值投资方法，强调安全边际和深度折价购买。本技能实现Graham的核心估值方法和筛选标准。
minimum_margin_of_safety: 0.30 # 30%最低安全边际
preferred_margin_of_safety: 0.40 # 40%首选安全边际
计算公式:
安全边际 = (内在价值 - 当前价格) / 内在价值
基础公式:
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
其中:
修正公式 (当利率显著偏离历史平均时):
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × (4.4 / Y)
其中:
最严格的Graham筛选标准，适用于深度价值投资:
Net-Net营运资本定义:
Net-Net = 流动资产 - 流动负债 - 总负债
= 现金 + 应收账款 + 存货 - 总负债
买入标准:
net_net_price_ratio: 0.666 # 价格 ≤ 2/3 Net-Net价值
筛选条件:
# 流动性指标
current_ratio: 2.0 # 流动比率 ≥ 2.0
quick_ratio: 1.0 # 速动比率 ≥ 1.0
# 负债水平
debt_to_equity: 0.5 # 债务权益比 ≤ 0.5
current_assets_to_total_liabilities: 2.0 # 流动资产/总负债 ≥ 2.0
# 盈利稳定性
earnings_consistency: 10 # 过去10年持续盈利
positive_earnings_years: 9 # 过去10年中至少9年盈利
评分标准 (总分100):
1. 安全边际 (30分)
- 50%+: 30分
- 40-50%: 25分
- 30-40%: 20分
- <30%: 0分
2. 财务健康 (25分)
- 流动比率 > 2.5: 10分
- 2.0-2.5: 8分
- 1.5-2.0: 5分
- 债务权益比 < 0.3: 10分
- 0.3-0.5: 8分
- 0.5-0.7: 5分
- 盈利连续性 (10年全盈利): 5分
3. 盈利质量 (25分)
- ROE > 20%: 15分
- 15-20%: 12分
- 10-15%: 8分
- 自由现金流 > 净利润: 10分
- 80-100%: 8分
4. 估值吸引力 (20分)
- P/E < 10: 20分
- 10-12: 15分
- 12-15: 10分
- P/B < 1.0: 10分
- 1.0-1.5: 5分
投资决策:
公司数据:
计算:
Net-Net = $100M - $30M = $70M
Net-Net每股 = $70M / 10M = $7
买入价上限 = 2/3 × $7 = $4.67
结论: 股价$10 > $4.67，不满足Net-Net标准 ❌
公司数据:
计算:
V = $5 × (8.5 + 2×5%) = $5 × 8.6 = $43
安全边际 = ($43 - $50) / $43 = -16.3%
结论: 安全边际为负，不投资 ❌
公司数据:
计算:
V = $4 × (8.5 + 2×6%) = $4 × 8.62 = $34.48
安全边际 = ($34.48 - $25) / $34.48 = 27.5%
评分:
总分: 78分 → 买入 ✅
✅ 适用于:
❌ 不适用于: