forecast

name	forecast
description	Generate weighted sales forecasts with best/likely/worst scenarios, commit vs. upside breakdown, and gap analysis. Works standalone with CSV or pasted pipeline; supercharged when you connect ~~CRM~~. Trigger with "forecast my pipeline", "weighted forecast for this quarter", or use the /forecast command.

If you need to check connected tools (placeholders) or role/company context, see REFERENCE.md.

Forecast

Build a weighted sales forecast with stage-based probabilities, commit vs. upside, and gap-to-quota analysis. This skill works with pipeline data you provide; when CRM is connected, it can pull pipeline automatically and use historical win rates.

How It Works

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                        FORECAST                                  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  ALWAYS (works standalone)                                       │
│  ✓ Upload CSV or paste/describe pipeline deals                  │
│  ✓ Set quota and timeline                                       │
│  ✓ Apply stage probabilities (default or custom)                │
│  ✓ Weighted forecast: best / likely / worst case                │
│  ✓ Commit vs. upside breakdown                                  │
│  ✓ Gap analysis and recommendations                             │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  SUPERCHARGED (when you connect your tools)                      │
│  + ~~CRM~~: Pull pipeline automatically, real-time data             │
│  + Historical win rates by stage, segment, deal size             │
│  + Activity signals for risk scoring                            │
│  + Track forecast over time                                     │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

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Stage Probabilities (Default)

Stage	Default Probability
Closed Won	100%
Negotiation / Contract	80%
Proposal / Quote	60%
Evaluation / Demo	40%
Discovery / Qualification	20%
Prospecting / Lead	10%

User can override. Map their stage names to these bands when needed.

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Output Structure

• Summary: Quota, closed to date, open pipeline, weighted forecast, gap, coverage ratio.
• Forecast scenarios: Best / likely / worst case with assumptions.
• Pipeline by stage: Deal count, total value, probability, weighted value.
• Commit vs. upside: High-confidence commit deals; upside deals with risk factors.
• Risk flags: Stale close dates, no activity, unrealistic close.
• Gap analysis: Amount needed to hit quota; options (accelerate, revive, new pipeline).

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Data Sources (per REFERENCE.md)

• CRM (if connected): Pipeline, historical win rates, activity. Enables automatic refresh and tracking.
• If CRM is not connected, use only CSV or user-provided pipeline and quota.