incstrat

name	incstrat
description	Decide whether you need an entrepreneur-support program at all, and if so which kind. Usage: /incstrat. Reads STARTUP_PROFILE.md and any inclist.md or incmatch-*.md files, then produces an honest program strategy: do-you-even-need-one verdict, program-type fit (accelerator vs. incubator vs. venture studio vs. non-dilutive grant program vs. none), sequencing, and this week's next actions. Saves to incstrat.md.
license	MIT
allowed-tools	Read Write Bash(find:*) Bash(ls:*)
metadata	{"author":"3Flux","version":"1.0","workflow-step":"1 — run first to decide whether a program is worth your time"}

/incstrat — Program Strategy Memo

Most founders join programs reflexively — for the logo, the cohort, the demo day — without asking whether the program closes a real gap or just consumes the scarcest resource a startup has: founder time. This skill forces that question first.

Synthesize everything known about the startup into a program strategy: what gap (if any) a program should close, which type of program fits, which to pursue, and what to do this week.

Invocation

/incstrat

No argument needed. Reads from the current working directory.

Execution Steps

Step 1 — Load All Available Context

Read the following from the current working directory (load all that exist — do not error if some are missing):

1. STARTUP_PROFILE.md — required. If missing, stop and tell the user to create it first.
2. inclist.md — if exists, use for the program pipeline and tier breakdown
3. incmatch-*.md — load all program match reports; use for sequencing
4. incposer-*.md — if any exist, extract the Baloney Score and verdict for each program

Step 2 — Produce incstrat.md

Write a 7-section program strategy memo. Be honest — the default answer to "should I do a program?" is often no. Lead with the gap, not the logo.

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Section 1: The Gap Test

One paragraph, brutal honesty. A program is only worth founder time if it closes a specific, named gap the founder cannot close faster alone. Assess:

• What the startup actually needs right now (capital, a specific customer channel, a technical co-founder, regulatory access, a first reference logo, structured deadlines, nothing)
• Whether a program is the fastest way to close that gap, or just the most visible one
• The opportunity cost: what 12 weeks of founder attention is worth at this stage
• One-sentence verdict: "A program is worth it only if it delivers [specific gap-closer]; otherwise the highest-leverage move is [build / sell / raise] directly."

Section 2: Program-Type Fit

Not all "programs" are the same instrument. Score each type against the startup's actual stage and gap.

Program Type	What it's for	Fit for this startup	Why
Accelerator (cohort, equity-for-cash, demo day)	Pre-seed/seed teams needing capital + network + forcing function	High / Medium / Low	[reason tied to profile]
Incubator (space, services, long horizon, often no equity)	Very early teams needing infrastructure and runway, not speed	High / Medium / Low	[reason]
Venture studio (co-build, large equity, hands-on)	Idea-stage founders without a full team	High / Medium / Low	[reason]
Non-dilutive / grant program (SBIR, DOE, state econ-dev, university)	Deep tech / capital-intensive teams with IP and milestones	High / Medium / Low	[reason]
Fellowship / community (no equity, network + credibility)	Founders needing signal or peer access more than cash	High / Medium / Low	[reason]
No program	Teams whose gap is execution, not access	—	[when "none" is the right answer]

Recommended instrument: [the single best-fit type, or "none — here's why"].

Section 3: What to Optimize For

Rank the three things this founder should demand from any program, in order. For each, name the proof you'd need to see before applying.

1. [e.g., Non-dilutive capital / customer intros / technical credibility] — proof to look for: [specific]
2. […] — proof: [specific]
3. […] — proof: [specific]

Then name the dealbreakers — what would make any program a net negative for this startup (e.g., >7% equity at this valuation, mandatory relocation, a demo-day-only program with no customer access, IP assignment clauses).

Section 4: Sequencing Strategy

Answer three questions explicitly:

Which program(s) first: If an inclist.md exists, pull Tier 1. If incmatch reports exist, rank by fit score. Name them.

Apply now vs. wait for a milestone: Many programs are far easier to get into — and far more valuable — after a proof point (first LOI, working prototype, first revenue). State whether to apply now or after a specific milestone, and why.

Parallel vs. focused: Recommend one. Applying to many programs dilutes application quality and signals desperation; focusing risks a single point of failure. Give the rationale for this startup.

Section 5: Milestone Map

Which proof points unlock which programs. Based on incmatch reports and inclist tiers if available.

Milestone	Unlocks	Target date
[Milestone 1 — e.g., working demo]	[Program(s) — names if known]	[Month Year]
[Milestone 2 — e.g., first paid pilot]	[Tier-1 accelerators]	[Month Year]
[Milestone 3 — e.g., IP filed]	[Non-dilutive / SBIR-style programs]	[Month Year]

Section 6: Risk Factors & Contingencies

For each risk: what it is, probability (high/medium/low), and the specific fallback.

If any incposer-*.md files were loaded, add a row for every program scoring below 60 — a Baloney-flagged program in your Tier 1 pipeline is a time-risk: coordination overhead, vanity demo day, or extractive equity with no offsetting value.

Risk	Probability	Contingency
Program is a time sink with no real gap-closer	Medium	Apply only to programs scoring 60+ on /incposer; treat the rest as monitor-only
Best-fit program's batch timing doesn't match runway	Medium	Identify a rolling-admission or non-dilutive alternative as a bridge
Equity terms erode the cap table before the seed round	Medium	Cap total program equity given up; prefer non-dilutive or fellowship tracks
Founder time pulled off the one thing that matters	High	Define a weekly "program hours" ceiling; protect build/sell time

Section 7: This Week — Next 3 Actions

The three most important things to do in the next 7 days. Concrete and specific.

1. [Action]: [Exactly what to do, which program, what to draft] — deadline: [day]
2. [Action]: [Exactly what to do] — deadline: [day]
3. [Action]: [Exactly what to do] — deadline: [day]

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Output Rules

• Section 1 must seriously entertain "no program" as the answer — do not assume a program is needed
• The opportunity-cost framing must be explicit: program time is founder time taken from building and selling
• Every program name in Sections 4–5 must come from inclist.md or incmatch-*.md if those files exist — do not invent program names
• The milestone map dates must be consistent with STARTUP_PROFILE.md milestones
• This Week actions must be doable in 7 days by the founders with no additional research needed
• After saving, tell the user: "Run /inclist to research candidate programs, then /incposer <program> on each Tier 1 before committing time."