| name | wc-refresh |
| description | Use during a World Cup tournament when the published forecast is missing scores martj42 hasn't logged yet — the manual overlay refresh that pulls, ingests, re-fits, re-forecasts and pushes. Also covers how played knockouts condition the forecast and how knockout fixture dates are corrected at ingest. |
| argument-hint | [list-missing|refresh|no-push] |
| allowed-tools | Bash, Read, Edit, Glob, Grep |
World Cup — manual refresh (martj42 lag)
martj42 backfills match scores ~1 day late, so during the tournament the daily
world-cup.yml cron is structurally a day behind. To publish a forecast that
includes scores martj42 hasn't logged yet:
scripts/wc/refresh_now.sh --list-missing — prints the played-but-unscored
WC fixtures as CSV rows (team names already match martj42).- Paste them into
data/wc/manual_results.csv and fill home_score,away_score
(and pen_winner — the winning team's exact name — for a knockout match
level on score, i.e. decided on penalties; leave blank otherwise).
scripts/wc/refresh_now.sh — pulls, ingests (overlay merged onto martj42's
NA rows), re-fits (~46 min), re-forecasts, shows the champion table +
data/wc/forecast.html, then on y commits + pushes and triggers the
metill-platform pull (gh workflow run pull-sports-data.yml -R metill-is/metill-platform).
The overlay is committed and self-draining: once martj42 publishes the real
score, ingest warns and martj42 wins — delete that row. The manual path does not
touch data/wc/martj42_pointer.txt, so the next cron run is unaffected. Flags:
--yes (skip confirm), --no-push (preview only), --no-pull (offline).
Played knockouts condition the forecast automatically
(Phase 2, shipped 2026-06-29.) wc_knockout_results() reads played cross-group
fixtures and .wc_knockout_pins() (R/wc-knockout.R) builds the
{match_no → winner} pins that simulate_world_cup() passes to
wc_forward_bracket() — so a decided match's winner advances w.p. 1 / loser 0
(placement collapses) and bracket.json gains a played[] field the platform
renders as a settled fixture. Penalty winners come from data/wc/shootouts.csv,
maintained by wc_ingest_shootouts() from martj42's shootouts.csv + the
overlay's pen_winner (martj42 canonical).
No re-fit is needed for new knockout results — pins act on the simulate
step, so re-running scripts/wc/forecast.R alone re-publishes the conditioned
forecast.
Knockout fixture dates are corrected at ingest
2026-07-06 incident: martj42 dated all four remaining R16 ties on the round's
first day, so the published forecast — and the platform matchday reel, keyed on
exact match_date — carried 4 matches on 6 July instead of 2.
wc_correct_knockout_dates() (R/wc-schedule.R) re-dates unplayed knockout
rows to the stadium-local date of their official slot, venue-matched against the
vendored data/wc/structure/wc2026_schedule.csv; unmappable rows keep martj42's
date with a warning. --list-missing applies the same correction, so overlay
rows always key on corrected dates.
