| name | Idea Prioritization |
| description | ICE-based idea prioritization with evidence-guided confidence scoring. Score ideas on Impact, Confidence, and Ease to propose execution priority.
|
Idea Prioritization (ICE Framework)
Goal
Ingest an idea description and current state, score it on Impact, Confidence, and Ease, and compute the ICE Score = Impact x Confidence x Ease to propose an execution priority. All evaluations must follow explicit criteria and rely only on stated evidence; no inference or guesswork.
When to use
- To quickly order an idea backlog and select items for exploration and experiments
- When you have at least some explicit evidence (interviews/data/tests) and a rough team effort estimate
- Before drafting experiment plans for a leaf opportunity in an Opportunity Solution Tree
Input
- Idea title and description: goal, target metric, scope, and working hypothesis
- Idea analysis and current state: data/user/market/test evidence, execution hypothesis, risks, and effort estimate
- Optional:
- Target metric and expected change rate (%) or range
- Estimated effort (person-weeks)
Output
- Format: Markdown (
.md)
- Location:
initiatives/[initiative]/solutions/
- Filename:
ice-[YYYY-MM-DD]-[slugified-idea-title].md
Scoring model
For the full scoring model details, see references/ice-scoring-model.md.
Quick reference
- Impact: Map expected metric change (%) to a 0-10 scale
- Ease: Map estimated effort (person-weeks) to a 10-1 scale (less effort = higher ease)
- Confidence: Sum weighted evidence contributions with group caps
- ICE Score = Impact x Confidence x Ease
Priority buckets
| Score | Guidance |
|---|
| >= 250 | Consider immediate execution (high expected ROI) |
| 150-249 | Promising; recommend additional precision testing |
| 100-149 | Proceed with mitigations or phase-two testing |
| < 100 | On hold or needs strengthening |
Process
- Input validation: Verify target metric, expected change (%), evidence text, and estimated effort (person-weeks). If missing, ask clarifying questions.
- Impact scoring: Map % change to the Impact table; if missing, apply default Impact 2.
- Ease scoring: Map person-weeks to the Ease table; if uncertain, use conservative lower ease.
- Evidence extraction and classification: Count only impact-related evidence from the input. Tally per type and apply group caps.
- Confidence calculation: Sum per-type contributions, apply group caps, compute final Confidence (0-10).
- ICE computation: Compute ICE = I x C x E; assign priority bucket.
- Report generation: Include score table, calculation rationale, cap applications, risks/assumptions, and recommended next steps.
Output format
# ICE Evaluation -- [Idea Title]
## Overview
- **Idea:** [Title]
- **One-line Summary:** [Brief description]
- **Target Metric:** [Metric name]
- **Assumptions/Scope:** [Key assumptions]
## Score Summary
- **Impact:** [I] (basis: [expected % change or default rule])
- **Ease:** [E] (basis: [person-weeks])
- **Confidence:** [C] (see details in references/ice-scoring-model.md)
## ICE Calculation
- ICE = [I] x [C] x [E] = **[Score]**
- **Priority Guidance:** [Bucket label]
## Input Summary
- **Expected Metric Change:** [value/none -> default 1.5% applied]
- **Estimated Effort (person-weeks):** [value/uncertain]
- **Evidence Excerpts:**
- [Excerpt 1; classified as: user/market/test/...]
- [Excerpt 2; classified as: ...]
## Risks / Assumptions
- [Key risk]
- [Key uncertainty]
## Recommended Next Steps
- [Tests/data collection/research/prototype]
- Confidence Improvement Plan: [Which evidence to strengthen]
## Notes
- ICE is a fast comparison/sorting tool; final decisions must also consider strategy, market, and resources.
Guardrails
- Do not invent or infer evidence or over-credit weak signals
- Exclude evidence not directly tied to Impact from Confidence
- When uncertain, apply conservative caps and document in "Risks/Assumptions"
- Prevent duplicate counting of the same source/content
Customization (team tuning)
- Adjust Impact bands to your target metric sensitivity
- Adjust Ease bands to team speed/role mix
- Extend evidence keywords to your domain language, while preserving the "explicit evidence only" rule
- Recalibrate bucket thresholds per quarterly capacity/roadmap density
Follow the writing standards in _shared/writing-standards.md for all outputs.
