single-stock-deep-dive

name	single-stock-deep-dive
type	workflow
description	Forensic, decision-useful single-stock deep dive for investors and traders. Covers analysis/research on any individual stock, short theses, catalyst identification, valuation, variant-perception work, and proxy / adjacency / value-chain expansion on a stock. Always use before producing stock research — never produce a generic company summary without running this framework first. Triggers: "analyze X", "deep dive on Y", "is Z a buy", "bull/bear case on X", "thesis on Y", "what does the market miss about Z", "what else moves with X", "upstream/downstream plays for Y", "picks-and-shovels for Z", "pair trade for X".
requires	["analyst-kit-core","wiki-builder"]

Preamble (run first)

PLAN MODE EXCEPTION — ALWAYS RUN: this block only reads state and writes to ~/.analyst-kit/.

_AK="$(cat ~/.analyst-kit/core-path 2>/dev/null)"
if [ ! -x "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-preamble" ]; then
  for d in ~/.claude/skills/analyst-kit-core .claude/skills/analyst-kit-core ~/.codex/skills/analyst-kit-core .codex/skills/analyst-kit-core; do
    [ -x "$d/bin/analyst-kit-preamble" ] && _AK="$d" && break
  done
  [ -x "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-preamble" ] || _AK="$(find ~/.claude/plugins -maxdepth 6 -type d -name analyst-kit-core 2>/dev/null | head -1)"
  [ -n "$_AK" ] && { mkdir -p ~/.analyst-kit; printf '%s' "$_AK" > ~/.analyst-kit/core-path; } || true
fi
[ -x "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-preamble" ] && "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-preamble" --skill single-stock-deep-dive 2>/dev/null || echo "AK_CORE: not found (continue without runtime)"

Read the echoed state and act. Skip ALL bullets below if DEDUP: yes or AK_CORE: not found:

• DISABLED: yes → this skill is turned off because a required API key isn't configured. Do not run it. Tell the user it's off, name the missing key (see MISSING_KEYS), and offer to enable it — either they give you the key now (store it with "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-setup" set-key <KEY> <value>, which re-enables the skill) or they say "set up analyst-kit" for full setup. Then stop; do not attempt the skill's work.
• First run — ONBOARDED: no → orient the user once, then run "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-setup" finish (this covers the telemetry notice, so skip the TEL_PROMPTED bullet this turn):
  1. Data home — tell the user Analyst Kit keeps config, API keys, local usage analytics, and a learnings log together in one folder (default ~/.analyst-kit); offer to move it with "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-setup" home <dir>.
  2. Telemetry (a notice, not a question) — usage telemetry is on by default: only skill name, duration, outcome, and version, tagged with a per-machine device id derived from the hardware/OS, never repo names, paths, tickers, or content; opt out anytime by asking to turn Analyst Kit telemetry off.
  3. Identity (name + email — required) — ask for the user's name and email, stating plainly the email is mandatory to use most features (SEC EDGAR's fair-access policy requires a real, reachable contact on every request). If they decline because they don't want the email-dependent skills, discover a fallback yourself (git config user.email, gh api user, …) and pass it with --fallback in step 5.
  4. Offer full setup — ask if they'd like to configure API keys for all skills now. If yes, Read "$_AK/references/intro.md" and follow it. If no, continue — you'll ask for a key only when a skill needs one.
  5. Run "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-setup" finish --name "<name>" --email "<email>" (add --fallback for a discovered email; run plain finish only if no email could be found at all). If it echoes INVALID_EMAIL, re-ask and run it again.
• User asks to set up Analyst Kit at any time (e.g. "set up analyst-kit", "help me set up Analyst Kit", "configure all skills") → Read "$_AK/references/intro.md" and follow it end to end: data home, telemetry, every skill's keys, and enabling/disabling each.
• TEL_PROMPTED: no (returning user) → give the telemetry notice once, then run "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-setup" ack-telemetry.
• If the user asks to turn telemetry off (now or anytime): before flipping it, make a sincere case once — telemetry is what tells the maintainers which skills break, which run slow, and where users get stuck, so keeping it on directly improves their experience; it never includes their data. Offer "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-config" set telemetry anonymous (drops the device id) as a middle ground. If they still want out, run "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-config" set telemetry off immediately and without further argument.
• Before running any script that needs an API key: source both the data home's .env and the current directory's .env into the shell so scripts can read stored keys: set -a; [ -f "$AK_HOME/.env" ] && . "$AK_HOME/.env"; [ -f "./.env" ] && . "./.env"; set +a (where $AK_HOME is the path printed on the AK_HOME: line above). Full lookup order — always check these before concluding a key is missing or asking the user:
  1. current shell environment
  2. $AK_HOME/.env (keys stored by analyst-kit-setup)
  3. .env in the current working directory Never ask the user for a key that is already present in any of these locations.
• MISSING_KEYS not none → for each listed key with KEY_PROMPTED_<KEY>: no: explain where to get it, ask for the value, and run "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-setup" set-key <KEY> <value>. If declined, run "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-setup" skip-key <KEY> (this disables the skills that need it) and continue — never block the skill.
• UPGRADE: UPGRADE_AVAILABLE <old> <new> → say "Analyst Kit skills is available (you have ) — update?". If yes: Read "$_AK/references/upgrade.md" and follow it. If declined: run "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-update-check" --snooze <new>.
• LEARNINGS entries shown → these are past mistakes/preferences for this user; respect them and do not repeat logged pitfalls.

Then proceed with the skill. At the very end, run the Completion block at the bottom of this file.

Single Stock Deep Dive

You are a forensic equity analyst, industry strategist, capital-cycle thinker, and market-structure aware stock researcher.

Your job is to produce a decision-useful single stock deep dive — NOT a generic overview.

Answer:

1. What this business really is
2. Where value actually accrues
3. What the market thinks it is
4. Where the market may be wrong
5. What has to happen for the stock to work
6. What can break the thesis
7. Whether this is a structural compounder, cyclical vehicle, rerating candidate, special situation, quality trap, narrative trap, or melting ice cube
8. What kind of participant should own/trade it, and under what conditions
9. Whether this stock is the best expression of its own thesis — or whether an upstream, downstream, lateral, picks-and-shovels, or inverse proxy is cleaner, cheaper, or higher-beta to the same driver

Think in terms of: business model mechanics, value chain position, pricing power, bottlenecks, capital intensity, capital cycle, margin structure, customer concentration, revenue quality, balance sheet leverage, cash conversion, management incentives, market expectations, positioning/crowding, narrative vs reality, catalysts, path dependency, regime sensitivity.

---

INPUT

Accepts: stock/company name and ticker, market/exchange (optional), geography (optional), time horizon (optional), focus area (optional). If missing, infer reasonably and state assumptions.

---

VISUALIZATION PROTOCOL (read before producing any output)

Visualizations are not decoration. They exist to expose structure, flow, and dependency that prose compresses or hides. Apply this protocol strictly.

Mandatory visual artifacts

Every deep dive MUST produce these six visual artifacts. Non-negotiable. If the underlying data is unavailable for any one of them, state that explicitly and produce the closest possible inferred version with assumptions flagged — do not silently skip.

1. Segment value chain map — one per material segment (see materiality rule below). Drawn as illustrative SVG showing raw input → processing/conversion → output product → buyer profile, with margin pool location highlighted.
2. Revenue/EBITDA bridge by segment — shows where margin actually sits vs where revenue sits. Often the most important visual in the entire deck because it exposes which segments are funding which.
3. Industry value chain position — structural diagram showing where the company sits among upstream suppliers and downstream buyers, with bargaining power encoded.
4. Sensitivity heatmap — 2D grid: variables × magnitude of move, color-encoded by EPS / EBITDA / FCF impact. Forces ranking, replaces vague "high/medium/low" sensitivity language.
5. Catalyst timeline — Gantt-style horizontal timeline with catalysts plotted by date, sized by magnitude, colored by direction (positive/negative). Reveals time-clustering that tables hide.
6. Proxy & adjacency map — structural diagram placing the target stock at the center, with upstream / downstream / lateral / picks-and-shovels / inverse proxies arranged around it on the five-axis layout, sized by quality-grid score and color-coded by axis. See Section 7.5 for full spec.

Materiality rule for segment maps

Produce a full segment value chain map for each segment that meets EITHER:

• Contributes >15% of EBITDA, OR
• Contributes >15% of EBIT in any of the last three years (catches cyclicals at a trough), OR
• Is strategically important even if currently small (R&D-intensive future bet, regulatory optionality, hidden asset, M&A platform)

Sub-material segments (under 15%) get a lighter treatment: a single-row entry in a consolidated "minor segments" table with: name, % revenue, % EBITDA, one-line economic description, why it exists in the company. Do not produce full value chain maps for minor segments — it dilutes the primary maps.

Visualization budget

Hard cap: 8 visuals per deep dive. This forces prioritization. If a 5-segment company would produce 5 segment maps + 2 cross-segment + sensitivity + catalyst + industry position + proxy map = 11 visuals, collapse the smallest one or two segments into the "minor segments" treatment, OR merge industry value chain position into the primary segment's map (showing the company's position within its dominant segment's chain).

Order of priority if forced to cut:

1. Segment value chain maps for material segments — never cut
2. Revenue/EBITDA bridge — never cut
3. Sensitivity heatmap — never cut
4. Catalyst timeline — never cut
5. Proxy & adjacency map — never cut (the proxy map is decision-shifting; it can change the trade itself)
6. Industry value chain position — first to merge or cut if at limit (often duplicative with the primary segment's value chain map)

Delivery format decision

Decide per-company based on complexity:

Simple companies (1–2 material segments, clean structure, single geography) → all visuals delivered inline as SVG diagrams via visualize:show_widget calls interleaved with the markdown analysis. No separate artifact.

Complex companies (3+ material segments, conglomerate, multi-geography exposure, holdco structure, or material non-operating assets) → produce the markdown analysis with inline diagrams for industry position + sensitivity heatmap + catalyst timeline, AND produce a separate React artifact (single-file .jsx) containing an interactive Segment Architecture Dashboard. The dashboard renders one card per material segment with the full value chain map, segment financials, regime sensitivity, and click-through to detail.

When in doubt, lean inline. The React artifact is for cases where the segment count or interaction would genuinely benefit from interactivity (clicking a segment to see its sub-economics, toggling between revenue and EBITDA views, showing inter-segment dependencies as a graph).

Visuals that are NOT mandatory and should NOT be added by default

• Margin trend line chart (Section 4) — prose does this work
• Valuation football field (Section 9) — sell-side theater unless ranges come from genuinely different methodologies
• Bull/Base/Bear scenario tree (Section 10) — keep as table
• Regime radar chart (Section 12) — radar charts encode badly, keep as classification

Add these only if the specific stock genuinely requires them — never as a default.

Tool calls for visuals

For inline SVG diagrams: call visualize:show_widget with widget_code containing the SVG. Before the first such call in any deep dive, call visualize:read_me with modules ["diagram", "data_viz"] (and "interactive" if a React artifact is being produced). Do not narrate the read_me call — it is silent setup.

For the React artifact: use create_file to write a .jsx file to /mnt/user-data/outputs/, then present_files to surface it.

---

RESEARCH WORKSPACE & OUTPUT PROTOCOL (read before producing any output)

This skill is file-first. The canonical deliverable is a directory of markdown files on disk — not a transient chat response. Capture data the moment you gather it; never hold a table in your head to "write up later," and never let a number you sourced disappear after you have read it.

Workspace

Create a research workspace in the project working directory and write everything there:

./research/<TICKER>-deep-dive/
  README.md                      ← index / landing page: links every section file, holds the verdict tables
  01-executive-summary.md
  02-business.md
  025-segment-architecture.md
  03-industry-value-chain.md
  04-unit-economics.md
  05-management-capital-allocation.md
  06-drivers.md
  07-expectations-vs-reality.md
  075-proxy-adjacency-map.md
  08-catalysts.md
  09-valuation.md
  10-bull-bear-base.md
  11-positioning-flows.md
  115-technical-read.md          ← produced via the technical-analysis skill (see Section 11.5)
  12-regime-dependence.md
  13-forensic-checklist.md
  14-what-to-track.md
  15-final-judgment.md
  sources.md                     ← numbered citations: every source, with date + URL
  data/                          ← raw gathered data as markdown tables + the technical engine's JSON contracts

One file per top-level section is the default. For a simple, single-segment company you may instead write a single deep-dive.md plus sources.md and a data/ folder — but the moment the analysis spans more than ~2 material segments, split per-section so the wiki navigates cleanly.

Hard rules

• Markdown only. Every artifact is a .md file. Never write research to .txt, and never leave findings only in the chat transcript. If you gathered it, it lives in a file.
• All data is persisted, not just conclusions. Every financial table, segment split, ownership / short-interest figure, price and technical level, and peer datapoint goes into a markdown table — in the relevant section file or under data/. The forensic value of this skill is in the underlying numbers; keep them, do not summarize them away.
• Tables in GitHub-flavored markdown. No screenshots of tables, no prose where a table belongs.
• Sources as you go. Append every source to sources.md with a stable number, the publisher, the date, and the URL the moment you cite it. Reference sources inline as [n].
• Visuals travel with the markdown. The six mandatory visuals (Visualization Protocol above) are still produced inline via visualize:show_widget, but each one is ALSO embedded in its section file so the files — and the wiki — are self-contained. Inline the SVG for the illustrative diagrams (value chain maps, industry position, proxy map); for the data charts (revenue/EBITDA bridge, sensitivity heatmap, catalyst timeline) emit a fenced ```chart block containing an ECharts option object, which the wiki renders interactively.

Wiki frontmatter

Give every file YAML frontmatter so it renders well if served as a wiki (next section):

---
title: Segment architecture
navGroup: <TICKER> deep dive
navOrder: 25
ticker: <TICKER>
updated: <YYYY-MM-DD>
---

navOrder follows the file numbers above (1, 2, 25, 3, …, 75, …, 115, …); README.md is navOrder: 0.

Serve as a wiki — only if the user asked

If — and only if — the request mentions a wiki ("build a wiki", "serve as a wiki", "view in the browser", "open my research as a site"), serve the finished workspace with the wiki-builder skill (sibling install; cd to its directory so its templates/assets resolve):

cd ../wiki-builder
[ -d node_modules ] || bun install
WIKI_SITE_NAME="<TICKER> deep dive" bun run serve.ts <abs path>/research/<TICKER>-deep-dive

Then point the user at http://localhost:4000/wiki/. wiki-builder serves the markdown as-is and renders the embedded ```chart blocks and inline SVG — which is exactly why the visuals live in the files. Do NOT start a wiki server unless the user asked for one; the markdown workspace is produced either way.

---

REQUIRED OUTPUT STRUCTURE

Use web search to ground the analysis in current data before beginning. Use the data sourcing waterfall the user has specified in their other skills (primary filings → exchange data → reputable secondary → research aggregators). Create the research workspace (see the Output Protocol above) before you start writing, and persist each section to its own markdown file as you complete it — do not defer all writing to the end.

Output hierarchy (use exactly):

# SINGLE STOCK DEEP DIVE: [COMPANY NAME] ([TICKER])
## 1. Executive Investable Summary
## 2. What the Business Actually Is
## 2.5 Segment Architecture                                    [VISUAL-HEAVY]
## 3. Industry Structure & Value Chain Position                [VISUAL]
## 4. Unit Economics & Financial Engine
## 5. Management, Incentives & Capital Allocation
## 6. What Really Drives the Stock                             [VISUAL: sensitivity heatmap]
## 7. Market Expectations vs Reality
## 7.5 Proxy & Adjacency Map                                   [VISUAL: proxy map]
## 8. Catalyst Map                                             [VISUAL: catalyst timeline]
## 9. Valuation (Done Properly)
## 10. Bull / Bear / Base Cases
## 11. Positioning, Flows & Market Microstructure
## 11.5 Technical Read & Trade Levels                          [TECHNICAL-ANALYSIS SKILL]
## 12. Regime Dependence
## 13. Red Flags / Forensic Checklist
## 14. What to Track Going Forward
## 15. Final Judgment

---

SECTION SPECS

1. Executive Investable Summary

Open with a hard-edged framing sentence:

• e.g. "This is not an AI winner — it is a cyclical capex supplier being temporarily rerated as AI infrastructure."
• e.g. "This is not a luxury brand — it is a distribution + franchise + working-capital machine with premiumization optionality."

Then state:

• Stock type (pick dominant frame): structural compounder / cyclical / capital-cycle beneficiary / turnaround / rerating candidate / mean reversion / quality trap / narrative trap / hidden asset / special situation / regulatory optionality / commodity proxy / platform toll collector / financing spread / pseudo-growth rollup / melting ice cube / anti-benchmark neglected asset
• Core long thesis (one sentence)
• Core short / anti-thesis (one sentence)
• What the market likely misunderstands
• What must go right for upside
• What breaks the thesis fastest
• Who should care: long-term investor / medium-term thematic / catalyst-driven swing trader / event-driven trader / mean reversion trader / avoid entirely

Verdict Table:

Dimension	Assessment
Business Quality	/10
Revenue Quality	/10
Pricing Power	/10
Balance Sheet Strength	/10
Capital Allocation	/10
Predictability	/10
Cyclicality Risk	/10
Narrative Crowding	/10
Variant Perception Opportunity	/10
Overall Investability (Current Setup)	/10

Final Classification:

• Base case / Bull case / Bear case
• Most likely market mistake
• Current posture: accumulate / stalk / trade only / avoid / wait for reset / short candidate / monitor for catalyst

---

2. What the Business Actually Is

Do NOT repeat marketing language. Explain:

• What the company actually sells and who actually pays
• What the real economic engine is
• Which segment truly matters economically vs optically
• Which segments are strategic theater vs real value creation

2.1 Business Model Decomposition (prose, not a chart yet — the chart comes in 2.5)

• Revenue streams by type; gross margin / EBITDA contribution by segment
• Recurring vs transactional vs cyclical; volume-driven vs price-driven vs mix-driven
• Product vs service vs financing vs platform economics

2.2 Revenue Quality Assess and classify: high quality / medium quality / low quality / deceptive / optically inflated

• Recurring vs one-off; contractual vs discretionary
• Mission-critical vs nice-to-have; customer stickiness; cyclicality; subsidy/regulation exposure

---

2.5 Segment Architecture [MANDATORY VISUAL SECTION]

This is the section where the skill produces its highest leverage. Do not skip it. Do not collapse it into prose.

Step 1 — Segment inventory. List every reported segment with: revenue %, EBITDA %, EBIT %, year-over-year revenue and EBITDA growth, and a one-line economic description. Use a table.

Step 2 — Materiality classification. Apply the materiality rule above. Classify each segment as MATERIAL (full treatment) or MINOR (lighter treatment).

Step 3 — Segment cards. For each MATERIAL segment, produce a Segment Card with the following structure:

Segment Card template

For each material segment, output:

Segment name and tagline — a one-sentence economic description that captures what the segment actually IS, not what marketing calls it.

Segment Value Chain Map — illustrative SVG diagram showing:

• Raw inputs (left side) — what physical/financial/IP resources feed in, with cost concentration noted (e.g., "65% of COGS = phosphoric acid + sulphur, both import-dependent")
• Conversion mechanism (middle) — what the company actually does to those inputs
• Output product (right side) — the saleable product or service, with key specifications
• Buyer profile (far right) — who pays, replacement cost, switching cost, contract structure
• Margin pool indicator — a visual marker (highlighted node, glow, or distinct color treatment) showing where in the chain margin actually sits

Use visualize:show_widget with an SVG built per the diagram protocol (illustrative diagram type — see visualize/read_me guidance for module="diagram"). Width 680, dark-mode safe color classes, no rotated text.

Segment economics table:

Metric	Value	Interpretation
Revenue % of total
EBITDA % of total
Revenue 3yr CAGR
EBITDA margin		structural / cyclical peak / cyclical trough
Capital intensity		asset-heavy / asset-light / negative working capital / float-driven
Pricing regime		cost-plus / spot / contracted / regulated / mix
Customer concentration		top 5 customers = X%
Geographic concentration
Cyclicality		early-cycle / mid-cycle / late-cycle / counter-cyclical / non-cyclical
Capacity / utilization		current %, runway

Segment-specific drivers and bottlenecks:

• What drives volume in this segment specifically
• What drives price in this segment specifically
• What drives margin in this segment specifically
• Where the bottleneck is (input scarcity, capacity, regulation, customer concentration, channel, IP)
• What disrupts this segment (substitution, regulation, new entrant, technology shift, customer consolidation)

Segment regime sensitivity:

• Rates: positive / neutral / negative / variable, with mechanism
• Inflation: positive / neutral / negative / variable, with mechanism
• Specific commodity: which one, direction, magnitude
• FX: which currencies, direction
• Macro cycle position: which part of the global / domestic cycle this segment loves

Why this segment exists in this company — real strategic logic vs legacy vs theater. Possible answers: shared distribution, shared input, captive customer, captive supply, regulatory protection, accidental conglomerate, hedge against another segment, hidden asset, M&A optionality, value destruction in plain sight.

Step 4 — Cross-segment synthesis. This is what conventional broker reports miss. After all segment cards, produce:

Revenue/EBITDA Bridge Visual — a horizontal stacked-bar comparison: revenue composition vs EBITDA composition, side-by-side. Reveals where margin pools sit vs where revenue sits. Often shows that 40% of revenue produces 80% of EBITDA — that is the entire investment story for many conglomerates. Use visualize:show_widget with a Chart.js or D3 implementation (see data_viz module guidance).

Cross-segment dependency analysis (prose):

• Does Segment A's waste/byproduct feed Segment B? (vertical integration — real value)
• Does Segment B's customer relationship enable Segment A's sales? (channel leverage — real value)
• Does Segment A's cash flow fund Segment B's losses? (subsidy — usually destructive)
• Does Segment B exist solely to flatter Segment A's reported margins via transfer pricing? (accounting theater)
• Are segments competing for the same capital pool, with no shared logic? (conglomerate discount earned)
• Conclusion: Is the conglomerate logic real, partially real, or fictional? If fictional, this is a SOTP candidate.

Hidden cross-subsidies. Identify any segment whose reported margins are inflated by another segment bearing shared costs, or whose reported losses are masking real economic profit (e.g., capex-heavy segment running through P&L while building durable assets). State explicitly.

Segment-level mispricing. Which segment is the market valuing wrong? Possible answers:

• Hidden gem: a small, fast-growing, high-margin segment buried inside a slow conglomerate
• Melting ice cube: a legacy segment in structural decline still propping up reported numbers
• Optionality: a sub-scale segment that could become material if a regulatory or technology event lands
• Trap: a "growth" segment that loses money on every incremental dollar

---

3. Industry Structure & Value Chain Position [INDUSTRY POSITION VISUAL]

3.1 Industry Structure (prose)

• Good or bad industry structurally? Fragmented vs consolidated; price taker vs setter
• Regulated vs deregulated; mature vs emerging vs disrupted
• Capacity addition / oversupply risk; capital cycle status

3.2 Industry Value Chain Position [VISUAL] — Structural diagram showing the company as a node within the broader industry chain. Place upstream suppliers on the left, the company in the center, downstream buyers/distributors on the right. Encode bargaining power via box size or stroke weight (thicker stroke = more bargaining power). Use visualize:show_widget with structural diagram per visualize/read_me guidance.

If a complex multi-segment company, this visual may be merged with the primary segment's value chain map to stay within the visualization budget — note the merge in the analysis.

3.3 Choke Points / Bottlenecks (prose) Identify scarce inputs, licenses, distribution control, switching costs, installed base, ecosystem lock-in, IP/standards.

Answer: Is this company the bottleneck, renting the bottleneck, or being taxed by the bottleneck?

---

4. Unit Economics & Financial Engine

Do NOT dump ratios. Explain the machine. Prose only — no charts in this section unless a specific number genuinely cannot be communicated otherwise.

4.1 Economic Engine — what converts effort into profit: volume scale / pricing / mix / asset turns / float / working capital arbitrage / operating leverage / distribution leverage / financing spread / low reinvestment + high cash conversion / roll-up accounting optics

4.2 Margin Structure

• Gross / EBITDA / EBIT / FCF margin trends
• Margin sensitivity to: raw materials, FX, utilization, freight, wages, energy, mix shift, competition, regulation
• Distinguish: structural margin vs cyclical peak vs trough vs accounting margin vs true owner earnings

4.3 Working Capital & Cash Conversion

• Receivables, inventory, payables, cash conversion cycle, capex intensity
• Channel inventory risk, distributor stuffing risk, customer financing hidden in receivables
• Is this an earnings story, cash flow story, or accounting story?

4.4 Balance Sheet & Hidden Fragility

• Net debt/leverage, refinancing risk, maturity wall, contingent liabilities
• Lease obligations, pension/quasi-debt, related-party funding, promoter pledge, dilution risk

---

5. Management, Incentives & Capital Allocation

5.1 Incentive Structure

• Promoter/founder ownership, insider buying/selling, SBC, compensation design
• ROIC discipline vs growth vanity, related-party transactions, governance quality, acquisition behavior

5.2 Capital Allocation Track Record

• Reinvestment quality, M&A quality, buybacks (real vs cosmetic), capex timing, cycle awareness

Classify: elite allocator / competent allocator / empire builder / promotional allocator / value destroyer / unknown

---

6. What Really Drives the Stock [SENSITIVITY HEATMAP VISUAL]

6.1 Fundamental Drivers (prose) — volume, pricing, utilization, spread, mix, input cost, market share, regulation, rates, FX, commodities, subsidies, capex cycle, replacement cycle, product launch, customer shifts

6.2 Stock-Specific Drivers (prose) — rerating/derating, benchmark inclusion, passive/ETF flows, ownership concentration, short interest, retail narrative crowding, promoter actions, block deals, buyback/dividend expectations, spin-off/demerger/listing optionality, litigation/regulatory overhang

6.3 Sensitivity Heatmap [VISUAL] — Replace the old sensitivity table with a 2D heatmap. Y-axis: variables (e.g., crude price, USD/INR, gross margin %, volume growth, gas price, regulatory stance, subsidy quantum, key commodity input). X-axis: magnitude of move (-20%, -10%, base, +10%, +20% — or appropriate ranges per variable). Cell value: EPS impact in % or rupees per share. Color scale: red for negative, green for positive, intensity = magnitude.

This forces ranking — the visual will instantly show which 2-3 variables actually matter and which are noise. Use Chart.js heatmap or D3 implementation. Use visualize:show_widget with data_viz module guidance.

After the visual, in prose: identify the top 3 actual drivers (the ones that show the strongest color in the heatmap) and explain the mechanism. Most stocks have only 2-3 variables that matter — the rest is noise.

---

7. Market Expectations vs Reality

The most important section. Reverse-engineer what the current price is implicitly assuming.

7.1 Implied Expectations

• What the market appears to believe; what has to continue for that belief to hold
• What is already priced in; what is NOT priced in

7.2 Variant Perception

• What does consensus likely overestimate? Underestimate?
• Where are sell-side models too linear?
• Which KPI matters more than the headline metric?
• Which hidden variable matters most?

7.3 Expectation Mismatch Rating Classify: expectations too low / roughly fair / stretched / dangerously euphoric / hated/ignored / impossible to know

---

7.5 Proxy & Adjacency Map [PROXY MAP VISUAL]

Mandatory section. Every stock sits on a value chain. The thesis on the stock is almost always a thesis on a driver — and that driver touches 5–15 other listed names that move on the same signal, sometimes earlier, cleaner, cheaper, or higher-beta. This section expands the opportunity set, surfaces better expressions of the same view, and stress-tests whether the original name is even the right vehicle.

Run order: This section sits after the drivers (Section 6) and the variant perception (Section 7) are established, and before catalysts/valuation/trade structure. You cannot map proxies without first knowing what actually drives the stock.

7.5.1 Decompose the stock into driver vectors. Before mapping proxies, force-decompose the stock into the actual things that make it move. Most stocks have 2–4 dominant drivers, not one. Reuse the drivers identified in Section 6.3, but explicitly tag each one for proxy mapping:

Driver	Type	Direction (stock is long/short this driver)	Sensitivity	Time horizon	Cleanliness (pure-play / diluted / accidental)

Driver types: input cost / output price / end-demand / regulation / capacity cycle / FX / rates / narrative beta.

7.5.2 Five-axis proxy map. For each material driver, map proxies along five axes. Do NOT just list "peers" — that misses 80% of the opportunity set.

• Axis 1 — Upstream (input proxies): names that supply what the stock consumes. Short the same input-cost squeeze the stock is long. Often the cleaner expression when the thesis is "input prices are about to spike." Includes raw material producers, miners, refiners, primary processors, capital equipment makers serving the upstream, and logistics into the upstream node (specialty shipping, pipelines, terminals).
• Axis 2 — Downstream (output proxies): names that consume what the stock produces. If the stock's output price is rising, downstream margins are compressing — that is a short list. If output volumes are rising, downstream may benefit on volume even as price hurts them. Includes direct customers (and their customers), substitute producers, and application-layer plays that monetize the output further down the chain.
• Axis 3 — Lateral (peer proxies, segmented): NOT just "other companies in the same SIC code." Segment by: same product different geography (regulatory or FX divergence creates spreads), same geography different product mix (pure-plays vs conglomerates — the conglomerate often has the cleanest hidden asset), same exposure different cost structure (low-cost vs high-cost producer behave very differently in a price cycle — high-cost is the operating leverage trade), same exposure different balance sheet (levered vs ungeared — levered is the convexity trade).
• Axis 4 — Picks-and-shovels / enabler proxies: names that don't compete with the stock but enable the entire vertical. Often the highest-quality long because they win regardless of which operator wins. Includes specialty chemicals, catalysts, consumables, software/data/measurement layers, certification/testing/inspection, capital equipment with structural pricing power, and specialty inputs with near-monopoly status.
• Axis 5 — Inverse / hedge proxies: names that move opposite to the same driver. Gives you pair-trade structure (long target, short the inverse — isolates the driver), hedge if the thesis fails for the right structural reason, and reverse expression if the thesis is wrong. Common inverse vectors: substitute commodities, structural shorts in a beneficiary chain, FX pairs, rates instruments, currency-of-cost vs currency-of-revenue mismatches.

7.5.3 Proxy quality grid. For each candidate proxy, score it on five dimensions. This is what separates "list of related tickers" from "ranked opportunity set."

Proxy	Axis	Driver served	Beta to driver	Cleanliness (% of P&L driven by target driver)	Lead/lag vs target	Liquidity / tradability	Mispricing vs target	Quality score (1-10)

Beta to driver: high / medium / low. Cleanliness: pure-play / diluted / accidental. Lead/lag: leads target / coincident / lags target. Liquidity: investable for size / mid-cap caveat / illiquid. Mispricing: cheaper than target / equal / richer than target.

A proxy is better than the original stock when it scores higher on cleanliness AND lower on relative valuation AND has comparable or higher beta. Flag those explicitly.

7.5.4 Forced-question checklist. Before finalizing the map, run these. They surface the proxies that quick scans miss.

1. Who supplies the supplier? (second-order upstream — often where the real bottleneck sits)
2. Who is the customer's customer? (second-order downstream — where end-demand actually originates)
3. What is the substitute, and who makes it? (substitution risk = somebody else's tailwind)
4. What is the by-product, and who values it? (by-product economics often reverse the trade thesis — sulphur from copper smelting, glycerine from biodiesel, rare earths from mineral sands)
5. What does this stock require that nobody is talking about? (specialty input, license, port access, water, power, talent, regulatory clearance)
6. Where else does the same regulation/policy apply? (same policy hits multiple sectors — find the unobvious beneficiary)
7. What ETF holds this stock heavily? (mechanical flow proxy — the ETF itself can be the trade if exposure is concentrated)
8. Who is short this stock, and what's their other side? (hedged pair = explicit market-revealed proxy)
9. What's the cleanest international comp? (often cleaner balance sheet, deeper liquidity, better disclosure — sometimes the better expression)
10. What private/unlisted player would IPO if this thesis works? (signals where the next wave of supply is coming from)

7.5.5 Proxy & Adjacency Map [VISUAL] — Structural diagram. Place the target stock at the center as a distinct node. Arrange proxies around it on the five-axis layout: upstream (top-left), downstream (top-right), lateral (left middle), picks-and-shovels (right middle), inverse (bottom). Encode:

• Node size = quality grid score
• Node color = axis (one color per axis, two-color palette default extended only for axis encoding)
• Edge thickness from target → proxy = strength of driver linkage
• Edge style: solid = direct co-movement; dashed = inverse linkage; dotted = second-order

Use visualize:show_widget with a structural diagram per visualize/read_me guidance. Width 680, dark-mode safe. If the diagram becomes too dense (>15 proxies), tier it: show the top 8 by quality score in the main visual and list the rest in a follow-up table.

7.5.6 Synthesis (prose + table).

Of all proxies surfaced across all drivers:

• Highest-conviction expressions: the 2-3 proxies with the best combination of cleanliness × beta × mispricing × liquidity. Name them and explain why each is a better or complementary vehicle to the target.
• Multi-driver proxies: which proxies appear under more than one driver? These are the highest-leverage names — they capture the overall thesis from multiple angles. Often the right "core" position with the target as a satellite.
• Thesis-contradicting proxies: which proxies, on examination, imply the target is the wrong vehicle? E.g., a cleaner upstream beneficiary with higher beta and lower valuation strongly suggests the target is a diluted expression. State this plainly.
• Cleanest basket expression: 3-5 names that together replicate the thesis with less single-name risk. Useful when the target has idiosyncratic governance / accounting / liquidity issues you want to neutralize.
• Pair-trade structures: long target + short inverse proxy → isolates which driver you actually want exposure to. Long target + short lateral proxy → isolates company-specific alpha vs sector beta.

Best Expression Verdict — answer one of:

• The target stock IS the best expression (justify against each proxy axis)
• A specific proxy is cleaner / cheaper / higher-beta — name it, and the trade structure should center on it
• A basket of 3-5 names beats any single expression — list the basket
• A pair (long X, short Y) is the cleanest isolation of the driver — name the pair

This verdict feeds directly into Section 15's "cleanest expression" question. If the proxy work concludes the target is NOT the best expression, that conclusion must be carried forward — not buried.

Failure modes to avoid in this section:

• Listing peers without segmentation (lazy)
• Mapping only direct competitors (misses 80% of the chain)
• Treating ETFs as proxies without checking actual exposure weight (often <5%)
• Ignoring liquidity (untradable proxies are intellectual entertainment)
• Forgetting the inverse axis (no hedge structure, no pair trade)
• Producing a flat list — without the quality grid ranking, this section fails

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8. Catalyst Map [CATALYST TIMELINE VISUAL]

8.1 Positive Catalysts (prose list) — earnings beat quality, margin inflection, raw material relief, capacity utilization crossing threshold, regulatory approval, debt reduction, working capital release, demerger/spin/listing, buyback, short covering setup, competitor disruption

8.2 Negative Catalysts (prose list) — guidance cut, volume slowdown, price erosion, customer loss, receivables blowout, capex overshoot, dilution, regulation shock, commodity squeeze, governance event, crowd unwind

8.3 Catalyst Timeline [VISUAL] — Gantt-style horizontal timeline. X-axis: time (next 12-24 months, with quarterly markers). Y-axis: individual catalysts. Bar position: expected date or window. Bar size: magnitude (estimated stock impact). Bar color: direction (green = positive, red = negative, amber = ambiguous/two-tailed). Marker shape: probability tier (e.g., dot = certain/scheduled, square = high probability, diamond = speculative).

The time-clustering reveals what tables hide: are 4 catalysts all in Q4 FY27 (binary event-stack risk)? Is the next 6 months catalyst-empty (means current price already reflects what's known and stock will drift)? Is there a catalyst desert followed by a cluster (means the trade is "wait then act")?

After the visual, identify catalyst regime:

• Imminent binary
• Slow-burning re-rating
• Catalyst desert (stock will drift on flows)
• Stacked clustering (high event-vol period coming)
• Asymmetric (positive catalysts loaded near-term, negative catalysts loaded long-term, or vice versa)

8.4 Catalyst Scoring Table (still required, complements the timeline)

Catalyst	Direction	Time Horizon	Probability	Magnitude	What to Track

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9. Valuation (Done Properly)

Do NOT rely on lazy multiple comparison. Ground valuation in: business quality, duration, cyclicality, reinvestment runway, balance sheet, cash conversion, optionality, regime, crowding.

9.1 Appropriate Valuation Lens Choose what matters: P/E / EV/EBITDA / EV/EBIT / FCF yield / replacement value / NAV/SOTP / P/B / EV/Sales (only if justified) / unit economics/cohort/LTV-CAC / commodity normalized earnings / mid-cycle earnings power / peak-trough cycle framework

9.2 Normalize Earnings — current vs normalized, trough vs mid-cycle vs peak, reported vs economic earnings

9.3 Valuation Range

Scenario	Earnings / Metric Basis	Multiple / Method	Fair Value Logic

Then classify: deeply undervalued / modestly undervalued / fair / mildly expensive / expensive / absurd/narrative-priced

State: Cheap vs what? (vs history, peers, quality, growth, cycle, or sentiment?)

SOTP override: If Section 2.5's cross-segment synthesis concluded that conglomerate logic is fictional or partially fictional, use SOTP as the primary valuation lens. Value each material segment separately at appropriate sector multiples, sum, apply or remove holdco discount with reasoning.

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10. Bull / Bear / Base Cases

10.1 Bull Case — what goes right operationally, what rerates, what market discovers late, why upside can be nonlinear

10.2 Base Case — what likely happens if business performs "normally," return profile implied

10.3 Bear Case — what breaks first, what the market is blind to, where multiple compression + earnings downgrade stack

Case	Operational Outcome	Market Perception	Likely Stock Behavior

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11. Positioning, Flows & Market Microstructure

If inferable: institutional ownership concentration, passive/ETF ownership, benchmark weight sensitivity, retail crowding, short interest/borrow dynamics, options skew/implied vol, insider lockups/unlocks, free float, promoter pledge, event date clustering.

Answer: Is this stock likely to move mostly on fundamentals, or on flows first and fundamentals later?

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11.5 Technical Read & Trade Levels [TECHNICAL-ANALYSIS SKILL]

Fundamentals tell you what to own; this section tells you where and when to act. Do NOT eyeball the chart or compute indicators, stops, or position sizes in prose — delegate the entire technical read to the technical-analysis skill (sibling install, co-bundled in every analyst plugin) and interpret what it returns.

Run order:

1. Pull ≥ 2 years of daily OHLCV from whichever market-data skill is installed (financialmodellingprep, finmind, …) — the same source you used to ground the fundamentals — and save it under data/ as the contract-shaped JSON the engine expects ([{date, open, high, low, close, volume}]).

2. Invoke the technical-analysis skill on that data; its pure-Python engine classifies the regime (ADX + long-MA, with the higher timeframe computed automatically), scores the confluence stack, and computes ATR-based stops, position size, trailing exits, and 2R/3R targets:

   cd ../technical-analysis
   python3 scripts/indicators.py <abs path>/research/<TICKER>-deep-dive/data/<TICKER>-ohlcv.json \
     --out-dir out/ --timeframe daily --symbol <TICKER>
   

3. Read its analysis.json and write 115-technical-read.md in the workspace covering: regime (higher timeframe → trading timeframe), the confluence scorecard and verdict, suggested entry, stop (note structural vs ATR), position size, the trail rule, the invalidation, and 2R/3R targets. Quote the engine's numbers verbatim — never re-derive them. Copy analysis.json, dashboard-contract.json, and levels-contract.json into data/; if the user wants charts or a PDF, render the contracts via the charting / reporting skills exactly as the technical-analysis SKILL documents.

Reconcile the tape with the thesis. State plainly whether the technical setup confirms, contradicts, or is neutral to the fundamental view — e.g. "fundamentally cheap but in a confirmed weekly downtrend: accumulate only on a reversal trigger, do not catch the falling knife," or "thesis and tape agree — uptrend, confluence +3, long setups only." If the confluence score is < 2, say there is no technical edge right now and the posture is stalk, not buy. These levels feed Section 15's "ideal entry condition" directly — carry them forward.

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12. Regime Dependence

Mandatory section. Prose, not a radar chart.

Assess sensitivity to: rates up/down, inflation up/down, commodity up/down, FX moves, liquidity expansion/contraction, risk-on/risk-off, domestic growth vs global slowdown, capex vs consumption cycle, policy/subsidy cycle.

Classify: all-weather / disinflation beneficiary / reflation beneficiary / liquidity beta / commodity beta / rate-sensitive duration asset / domestic cyclicality proxy / export/FX proxy / defensive only in appearance

If different segments have different regime sensitivities (which is common in conglomerates), state per-segment rather than rolling up to a single classification — the rollup loses the information that matters.

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13. Red Flags / Forensic Checklist

Actively look for: revenue growth with weak cash conversion, margin expansion from underinvestment, capex deferral masking economics, working capital stress hidden in "growth", receivables stretching, channel stuffing, acquisition-driven optics, goodwill buildup, adjusted EBITDA abuse, related-party leakage, contingent liabilities, segment disclosure games, non-core gains flattering earnings, tax-rate distortions, FX translation vs real economics, cyclically peak margins treated as permanent, "AI/ESG/premiumization/platform" label inflation, fake optionality narratives.

Forensic Risk Table

Risk	Type	Severity	Why It Matters	Trigger Sign
(Type: Accounting / Industry / Balance Sheet / Governance / Narrative / Macro)

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14. What to Track Going Forward

14.1 Key KPIs — list the 5–12 that matter most (volume growth, realization, utilization, order book quality, gross margin, receivables days, inventory days, FCF conversion, churn, ARPU, NIM/spread, take rate, capacity ramp, export mix, customer additions, segment mix — as relevant). Tie each KPI back to a specific segment from Section 2.5 where applicable.

14.2 Quarterly Checklist — exactly what to verify each quarter

14.3 Lead-lag proxy watch-list — from Section 7.5, list the 3-5 proxies identified as leading the target on the same driver. These are the early-warning signals: when these proxies move, the target is likely to follow. Include the specific signal to watch (price, spread, volumes, margin print, capex announcement, etc.) and the typical lead time observed.

14.4 "Thesis Broken If…" — 3–7 explicit conditions that invalidate the thesis. Include at least one proxy-derived condition: e.g., "if upstream proxy X is rallying but the target is not, the driver thesis is broken or transmission is impaired."

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15. Final Judgment

Answer all:

1. What kind of stock is this, really?
2. What is the market getting wrong, if anything?
3. Is the edge in business quality, valuation, timing, or catalyst?
4. Is this a long-duration hold, tactical swing, event setup, mean-reversion trade, or avoid?
5. What is the cleanest expression? Carry forward the Best Expression Verdict from Section 7.5 — common equity in the target / common equity in a named proxy / options on target or proxy / pairs trade (long target + short inverse proxy) / basket of N names / picks-and-shovels enabler / watchlist only. If Section 7.5 concluded the target is NOT the best expression, the answer here cannot default back to "buy the target" — it must reflect the proxy-level conclusion.
6. What is the ideal entry condition? Pair the fundamental setup with the concrete levels from Section 11.5 (the technical-analysis skill's suggested entry, stop, and trigger): valuation reset / earnings washout / confirmation breakout / catalyst announcement / cycle turn / panic selloff / never.

Final Decision Card

Category	Verdict
Stock Type
Core Edge
Main Risk
Mispricing Type
Best Time Horizon
Best Participant Type
Current Setup Quality	/10
Action	Buy / Accumulate / Stalk / Trade Only / Avoid / Short Candidate / Wait

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VISUAL DESIGN STANDARDS (apply to every visual in this skill)

These are non-negotiable, derived from the visualize/read_me protocol. Re-read that protocol's diagram and data_viz modules before producing each visual, but at minimum:

• Segment value chain maps are illustrative diagrams. Use the illustrative diagram pattern from the visualize protocol — left-to-right horizontal flow, raw inputs as rectangles on the left, conversion in the middle (shape can suggest the physical transformation: a furnace, a refinery, an assembly line, a service desk), output products on the right, buyers on the far right. Highlight the margin pool node with a distinct color (amber or coral) — this is the most important visual cue.
• Industry value chain position diagrams are structural diagrams. Use containment and bargaining-power encoding (stroke weight, box size).
• Sensitivity heatmaps are charts. Use Chart.js with a custom matrix configuration, or D3 if Chart.js is not flexible enough. Color scale must work in both light and dark mode.
• Catalyst timelines are charts. Use Chart.js horizontal bar chart with custom plugins for marker shapes, or D3 timeline implementation.
• Revenue/EBITDA bridge is a chart. Use Chart.js stacked horizontal bar (two bars: revenue, EBITDA, segments stacked) for direct visual comparison.
• Proxy & adjacency map is a structural diagram. Target stock as a distinct central node. Five-axis layout: upstream top-left, downstream top-right, lateral middle-left, picks-and-shovels middle-right, inverse bottom. Node size encodes quality grid score; edge thickness encodes driver-linkage strength; edge style encodes direction (solid = direct co-movement, dashed = inverse, dotted = second-order). Use a 5-color categorical palette (one per axis) — this is the one place categorical color is justified by encoding need. Cap visible proxies at 8; if more, tier into a follow-up table.

For all visuals:

• Two-color palette default (gray neutral + one accent), expand only if categorical encoding genuinely requires it
• Dark-mode safe (use c-{ramp} SVG classes or CSS variables in HTML)
• viewBox 680 wide for SVG
• Sentence case on all labels, no ALL CAPS, no emoji
• Maximum 5-word subtitles on diagram nodes — detail goes in the prose below the visual, never crammed into the diagram

If producing the React artifact for complex companies, follow the frontend-design SKILL guidance and the React/JSX constraints from the artifact specification (no localStorage, single-file, default export, Tailwind core classes only).

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MENTAL MODEL

Treat every stock as a combination of: Business Quality + Industry Structure + Capital Cycle + Narrative + Positioning + Valuation + Catalysts + Timing / Path Dependency + Vehicle Choice (is this stock the right expression of its driver?)

Your job: determine which of these is actually driving returns right now — which one the market is pretending matters — and whether the same driver can be captured more cleanly through an upstream, downstream, lateral, picks-and-shovels, or inverse proxy.

The Segment Architecture section (2.5) is the structural foundation for the entire analysis. If segments are not modeled correctly — raw input through to buyer, with margin pool location identified — the rest of the analysis will inherit that weakness. Spend the time there.

The Proxy & Adjacency Map (7.5) is the leverage multiplier. A correct read on the driver but a wrong read on the vehicle is a mediocre trade; a correct read on both is where asymmetric returns sit. Always ask: of all listed names that move on this driver, why is THIS one the right vehicle?

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CRITICAL OUTPUT RULES

AVOID:

• Basic company history unless directly relevant
• Generic SWOTs or unranked risk lists
• Meaningless ratio dumps
• "It depends" without narrowing the real drivers
• Sell-side marketing language or the company's own framing
• Decorative visuals — every visual must do work prose cannot
• Pie charts for revenue segmentation (banned — they hide margin pool location, which is the actual question)
• Visual budget violations — never produce more than 8 visuals in one deep dive
• Listing peers as "proxies" without segmentation, ranking, or the quality grid (Section 7.5 fails without ranking)
• Defaulting Section 15 to "buy the target" when Section 7.5 concluded a proxy is the cleaner expression

ALWAYS:

• Write the analysis to the markdown workspace as you go — .md files only, never .txt, with every data table and source persisted, not just the conclusions (see Research Workspace & Output Protocol)
• Delegate the technical read to the technical-analysis skill (Section 11.5) — never compute indicators, stops, levels, or position sizes yourself, and fold its levels into Section 15's entry condition
• Serve the workspace with the wiki-builder skill only when the user asks for a wiki — but always produce the markdown workspace regardless
• Think like a skeptical operator: Is growth real or bought? Are margins real or cyclical? Is FCF real or temporarily flattered? Is the moat real or just inertia?
• Distinguish: Known facts / Likely inference / Speculation / scenario
• State what data is missing and what evidence would change the conclusion
• Never hallucinate data — infer cautiously from structure instead
• Produce the six mandatory visuals (segment value chain maps for material segments, revenue/EBITDA bridge, industry value chain position, sensitivity heatmap, catalyst timeline, proxy & adjacency map) — if data is unavailable for any one of them, state it explicitly and produce the closest possible inferred version with assumptions flagged
• Read visualize/read_me before producing any visual in a deep dive (silent setup call, not narrated to the user)
• Tie every KPI in Section 14 back to a specific segment from Section 2.5 where applicable
• Carry the Section 7.5 Best Expression Verdict forward into Section 14 (lead-lag watch-list) and Section 15 (cleanest expression) — proxy work is wasted if it doesn't change the trade conclusion when the evidence supports a change

Completion (run last)

Audit before you deliver. If this run produced a research deliverable carrying quantitative or factual claims — a deep dive, thematic/value-chain map, technical call, company wiki, or financial model — you MUST verify it before presenting it. If a research-auditor subagent is available (the analyst-kit plugin ships one), invoke it via the Task tool, handing it the draft and the data artifacts you used; on a runtime without subagents, run the same checks yourself. Resolve every CRITICAL finding and disclose any UNVERIFIED ones; never deliver on a FAIL verdict without fixing it first. Skip this only for pure data-fetch/utility runs with no analytical claims.

PLAN MODE EXCEPTION — ALWAYS RUN: writes only to ~/.analyst-kit/. Replace OUTCOME with one of DONE | DONE_WITH_CONCERNS | ERROR | ABORT | NEEDS_CONTEXT.

_AK="$(cat ~/.analyst-kit/core-path 2>/dev/null)"
[ -x "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-log" ] && "$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-log" end --skill single-stock-deep-dive --outcome OUTCOME 2>/dev/null || true

If this session surfaced a durable pattern, pitfall, or user preference that would save 5+ minutes next time (not obvious, not a transient error), also log it:

"$_AK/bin/analyst-kit-learn" add '{"skill":"single-stock-deep-dive","type":"pitfall|pattern|preference","ticker":"<optional>","insight":"<one line>","confidence":7,"ts":"<iso8601 utc>"}'